Navigant Research Blog

Smart Grid Projects in Europe: A New EU Survey

— July 21, 2011

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) has published a major survey of current smart grid projects across Europe. Smart Grid projects in Europe: lessons learned and current developments collates information on 219 projects with a total budget of around €5.5 billion ($7.7 billion). The study provides a snapshot of the current state of Europe’s smart grid investment. In general, the findings confirm the key messages of Pike Research’s recent report on Smart Grids in Europe, which estimated that Europe will invest around €56 billion in smart grid technology by 2020.

Not surprisingly, smart meter rollouts dominate projects in the deployment stage, even allowing for the skew given to the figures by Italy’s 30 million plus smart meters. As well as large scale pilots in France, Spain, and deployments across Scandinavia, a roadmap is emerging for smart meter rollouts across much of Europe. Even Germany, which has been the big unknown, is now preparing for a national smart meter program in the wake of its decision to abandon nuclear power and increase the focus on renewable energy sources. Outside of smart meters progress is much slower, but on the positive side more projects are in the demonstration phase rather than pure R&D and there is a strong focus on addressing issues of integration and scalability to pave the way for larger scale rollouts in time for 2020.

It is also significant that after smart meters, system integration represents the largest category of projects, with 34% of projects (representing 15% of the investment) addressing the integration of different smart grid technologies and applications. This has been one of the strong points of the European research model, with an emphasis on combining relatively mature technologies to meet complex goals around network efficiency, demand management, and renewables integration. It is also notable that many of these projects are looking at both technology integration and the development of market platforms that can coordinate transactions across system operators, energy providers, consumers, and other stakeholders.

Another key finding of the report is a significant geographical imbalance, with most of the projects located in EU-15 countries, with EU-12 (new Member States, mostly in Eastern Europe) lagging behind. While the leadership of the larger countries is to be expected, EU energy policy will need to address the slow progress being made in other parts of Europe if its objectives for an integrated market are to be met. Significantly, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and United Kingdom account for around half of the projects covered, which in part reflects the importance of renewables integration as a driver for smart grid innovation in Europe.

Another characteristic of the projects is their multidisciplinary nature, with a considerable degree of collaboration between network operators, academia, research centers, manufacturers, and IT companies. This is important not only in terms of addressing the complexity of smart grid projects but also the parallel goal of using smart grid investments to boost European industry and develop a global technology leadership in this space. It also reflects the importance of the role of the European research investment programs which mandates cross-sector and cross-border collaboration.

In terms of investment models, the key role played by the Distribution System Operators (DSOs) is clear. DSO-led projects account for 27% of projects and 67% of investment. This also points to the importance of developing a regulatory environment for operators that can enable future large scale investment in network improvements. Generally, European regulation still focuses on cost efficiency rather than investment in smarter systems and broader energy policy goals. The report calls for an incentive model that can help accelerate network investment and points to the United Kingdom and Italy as countries where regulators are developing innovative approaches.

The report also highlights the importance of consumer awareness and participation in these projects. Arguably, more needs to be done in this regard particularly as we move from proof-of-concept engineering trials to demonstration projects and deployments that require greater customer engagement. Related to this issue is the relatively poor response the survey team received with regard to their questions on data privacy. The European Commission and the Smart Grids Task Force have emphasized the need for a ‘privacy-by-design’ approach that will embed privacy protection at the core of smart grid projects. The responses to the survey suggest that privacy is still being considered as an afterthought in too many cases.

Overall, the survey paints a picture of steady progress but with some significant barriers still to be addressed before large scale deployment becomes a reality. The next 18 months will be critical to the development of smart grids in Europe. If smart grids are to provide the necessary underpinning to Europe meeting its 20-20-20 goals, we will need to see progress in several key areas:

  • Development of European wide standards for smart meters and smart grid deployments
  • Greater consumer engagement and clear demonstrations of the ability of the industry to address privacy and security concerns
  • Viable demonstrations of how technologies can be combined to address the new requirements placed on the network in terms of renewables integration, electric vehicles, and demand management, for example
  • A roadmap for large scale deployment of these technologies and suitable investment and incentive models that ensure a fair sharing of costs and benefits
  • The JRC proposes to develop its survey as an on-going project to monitor Europe’s progress against these and other key goals. As such, it will be a valuable tool in helping policy makers and market players assess progress and understand the further measures that may be needed.

     

    Calculating Green Jobs in the United States

    — July 21, 2011

    Green jobs are a perennial topic of interest for politicians, clean technology advocates, and companies looking to show that they are more than just “good for us” but can actually drive the economy. What is much more elusive is demonstrating that cleantech investments can in fact lead to job growth. This is important in part because job growth is often cited as a reason for governments to invest in clean technology projects. It has become even more pressing in the current economic environment. The Brookings Institute has just released a study that aims to quantify the growth of green jobs across the United States from 2003 to 2010. Brookings partnered with Battelle and the partners sought to bring some analytical rigor to the project. They developed a methodology to quantify green jobs in every county in the United States, so that the green economy can be understood on a regional and even municipal level in the United States.

    Upfront, the report authors acknowledge the potential pitfalls in calculating green jobs: What exactly are “green” industries and what constitutes a job in that industry – is it only direct jobs such as (photovoltaic) PV manufacturing or does it include the entire supply chain? The report classifies the clean economy as “economic activity — measured in terms of establishments and the jobs associated with them — that produces goods and services with an environmental benefit or adds value to such products using skills or technologies that are uniquely applied to those products.” In terms of what parts of the supply chain to include, the study only included “companies that add value to clean products, whether by supplying a part or a service, using skills or technologies that are unique to the clean economy.” Much more detail on the methodology is available from the report website, but in essence, it does appear that the study authors tried to limit the study to count only jobs providing an environmental benefit, thus avoiding inflating numbers by counting jobs in the conventional manufacturing supply chain.

    There are a couple of interesting findings from the study. The finding that there are more jobs in cleantech than in the fossil fuel industry was a headline grabber. But it should be noted that the study includes “mature” industries and public services such as mass transit and wastewater management. While these are worthy jobs, there tends to be more interest in seeing growth from the new energy technology industries such as solar, wind, batteries, and fuel cells. In fact, the report found that these so-called “young” energy industries comprised a smaller portion of the cleantech employment economy than the mature industries. However, it is also the mature industries that suffered more job losses in the economic downturn, while the newer energy industries like wind, solar, and smart grid experienced dramatic growth.

    The other interesting finding is the preeminence of manufacturing jobs. The report found that around 26% of all clean economy jobs are in manufacturing establishments, in comparison to 9% in the overall economy. Creating manufacturing jobs in the United States has proven even more elusive than understanding the green job sector, so this is a promising indication of how cleantech industries may in fact help support U.S. manufacturing.

    From my perspective as a fuel cell analyst, I was pleased to see the presence of fuel cells as one of the new energy growth sectors. A sample metropolitan analysis looking at the Albany area noted that Plug Power and MTI Micro Fuel Cells were some of the top contributors to green job growth in this area. I am sure there will be much more to find from digging through the data provided with the report, but so far, this looks to be a valuable contribution to the green job debate.

     

    The Competition between Fuel Cell and Battery Electric Trucks

    — July 20, 2011

    Earlier this summer, my colleagues, Lisa Jerram and John Gartner, had a spirited conversation going regarding the potential market for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) in light-duty applications. In the end, they came to an agreement regarding the drivetrain for these vehicles. They agreed that the range extender model for the FCVs is most likely to benefit both markets. Now, we are getting to see their discussion play out in the marketplace between battery electrics and fuel cells in Class 8 heavy-duty drayage trucks.

    Last May, at the Alternative Clean Transportation Expo, I had a long conversation with Balwinder Samra of BEV truck maker Balqon Corporation. The company was introducing its Nautilus XR E20’s enhanced range for service in port facilities. Basically, the new truck offers increased range that will allow the truck to work longer. The key to the BEV HD truck is being able to make it through a full ten hour work shift before needing to be recharged.

    The new XR E20 is designed to address concerns that have arisen over the battery capacity. Since the trucks have to operate for a full shift, the range becomes a question of operation time, rather than distance. This opened the door for FC trucks.

    Until very recently, there has been little effort to use the fuel cell for heavy-duty applications beyond transit buses. Vision Motor Corporation is hoping to change that. The company offers a Capacity of Texas yard hostler (a version of its PHETT sustaining hybrid tractor) that has the diesel motor replaced with a FC for the range extender. This means the truck can be quickly refueled using hydrogen to keep operating.

    Recently, I spoke with Rudy Tapia, Vice President of Business Development at Vision Motor Corporation regarding the company’s trucks, and he pointed out that the heavy-duty market is a good market for FC because the trucks will use enough hydrogen to make the fuel financially competitive in comparison to diesel pricing. Also, the packaging of HD trucks is such that there is simply more space for the batteries and storage tanks. Getting back to the FCV vs. BEV argument for a moment, Tapia stated that the range extender model avoids any cold start issues with its FCs, because it does not have to be turned on and off.

    The trucking industry (whether drayage or delivery) is ruled by logistics, the duty cycle of a given truck, and the bottom line. Electricity is so inexpensive that BEVs are likely to have the advantage in operating costs over FCV, regardless of how much hydrogen is used. However, the FC truck can run multiple shifts with the same truck, meaning potentially fewer truck purchases. (Of course, this competition is in a vacuum of sorts, as the port has mandated these be zero emission vehicles to meet carbon reduction requirements, so diesel and natural gas trucks are off the table.)

    What we are seeing in real-time at the moment is a BEV that falls short of the market requirements, so an extended range FC can step in. Will Balqon’s new battery solve the problem? Perhaps, but as I said earlier, this problem has opened the door for FCVs and Vision has firmly stuck its foot in that door.

     

    Smart Energy and Smart Transportation Country Profile – Australia

    — July 19, 2011

    Since the 2010 federal election, it has become increasingly clear that the “green” movement in Australia has come out of the shadows. With street marches to encourage a high carbon price (launched on July 10th) and increasing interest in smart grids and alternative vehicles, it is timely to provide a short overview of the current movements Down Under.

    Background

    Australia has a population over 22.5 million people, of which some 89% live in cities. The cities of Australia include two C40 Cities (see note), Sydney (population 4.5 million) and Melbourne (population just over 4 million). According to the 2008 census results, Australia has 8.1 million households.

    Australia’s Energy Profile in 2008-2009

    In 2008, according to Australian Energy Statistics, Australia consumed 5,773 PJ, of which 39% came from coal, both lignite and brown coal, and a further 34% came from natural gas. Although, as a country, Australia has the potential of many MWs of renewable energy to date it only supplies 5% of energy consumed.

    Energy use is clearly dominated by just three sectors, electricity general, transport, and manufacturing, which cumulatively make up over three quarters of energy used.

    Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    In 2008, GHG emissions, in CO2 equivalent (MT CO2-e), totaled 576.2 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. Energy, stationary, transport, and fugitive emissions, makes up 72% of all emissions in 2008.

    Smart Energy

    Smart Grids Project

    Australia is testing smart grids with the “Smart Grid, Smart City” project. In 2010, a consortium was awarded AUS$100 million to roll out and test a smart grid across districts in Sydney and Hunter Valley (better known for its wine!). The consortium is being led by EnergyAustralia and includes GE Energy Australia.

    The project runs from 2010-2013 across Newcastle, Scone, Sydney CBD, Ku-ring-gai, and Newington and is being rolled out to allow residents to see real-time analysis on energy use.

    The project includes (but is not limited to):

  • Installation of 50,000 smart meters
  • 2,000 homes converting to “Smart Homes” where residents can switch appliances on and off remotely via smart phones
  • Rolling out energy storage in homes with solar
  • Installing 25 solid oxide fuel cell micro combined heat and power (SOFC mCHP) from Ceramic Fuel Cells, Ltd. (CFCL) and five wind turbines
  • Installing of 12,000 smart sensors
  • This is an initial project to assess the usefulness and impacts of smart grids. If it is a success, then it will be interesting to see if the government rolls this out across territories.

    Renewable Energy Systems

    In August 2009, the Federal Government of Australia implemented a Renewable Energy Target scheme. The aim of the scheme is to ensure that 20% of Australia’s electricity supply will come from renewable sources by 2020.

    Much more recently, on July 7, 2011, the government announced through an emailed statement that it will set up a $3.4 billion (A$3.2 billion) Australian Renewable Energy Agency to consolidate support for renewable energy technology development. The agency will have an independent decision-making board appointed by the government and a chief executive officer appointed by the energy minister on recommendation of the board.

    Smart Transportation

    To date smart transportation in Australia has been limited to a handful of fuel cell buses in Perth, trails of a limited number of BEVs (around 20), and charging stations. The State of Victoria, capital Melbourne, is leading Australia in developing an integrated transport plan.

    In 2012, Renault will launch the Fluence Z.E. in Australia, with BetterPlace providing the infrastructure.

    Finally, on the on July 10, 2011, the Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard announced a carbon tax to cover 500 of Australia’s top polluters, which are estimated to be responsible for more than two thirds of Australian carbon. According to local press, it is expected that the starting price of the tax will around $25 (AUS$23) per metric ton starting in July 2012.

    (Note: C40 cities is a Clinton Climate Initiative of the mayors of the 40 largest cities in the world. The aim of the C40 group is to create more sustainable cities, and reduce GHGs by common standards and group procurement of cutting edge technologies.

     

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