Navigant Research Blog

Ohio’s Freeze on Renewable Mandates Encourages Clean Energy Foes

— June 20, 2014

In an ominous first for renewable energy policy, Ohio Governor John Kasich signed a bill that freezes Ohio’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS) and energy efficiency measures for 2 years.  The AEPS has been in place since 2008 and called for all investor-owned utilities to source 25% of their electricity from alternative sources, including 12.5% from renewables, by 2025.  These policies, which are more generally called renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), have been enacted in 29 states and Washington, D.C. and play a key role in driving demand for renewable energy.

Any policy that detracts from the status quo-entrenched fossil fuel interests is an attractive target.  RPS laws have been under sustained attack over the past few years, with no fewer than 15 attempts to scrap them at the state level.  The popularity and dropping cost of renewables have helped fend off these attacks, but this result in Ohio reflects the first time that opponents of renewables have succeeded in rolling back an RPS.  Enactment of the 2-year freeze is likely to be followed by a readjustment of the requirement downward, or the scrapping of it altogether.

There were some localized issues that propelled the attack.  A new generation of wind turbines optimized for lower wind speeds has allowed the expansion of wind energy from its traditional home in the more sparsely populated heartland to the more densely populated eastern Midwest markets like Ohio.  This led to increasing NIMBY (not in my backyard) and BANANA (build absolutely nothing anywhere near anyone) opposition.

Domino Effect?

Entrenched fossil fuel interests worried about competition fanned these flames.  And to be sure, the accompanying energy efficiency measures appeared to be a legitimate problem for large industrial users who were not given credit for improvements in process efficiency.  The energy efficiency issues, in fact, may have provided the most momentum behind the RPS attack.

But beyond the state-specific critiques, opposition to renewables comes from fossil fuel interests and conservatives who oppose any government support for alternative energy.  The Energy & Policy Institute has illuminated an increasingly orchestrated nationwide effort that includes the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC), with financial backing from the Koch brothers.  ALEC was reportedly active in helping gain support among state lawmakers in Ohio for pushing back against the renewable energy mandates.

Emboldened by victory in Ohio, attacks on state RPSs are likely to increase.   It will be hard to slow the clean energy momentum, though.  Renewables deployments have grown so fast in the United States (and globally) that analysis by Navigant Consulting director Bruce Hamilton shows that around 15 states with RPS mandates, or RPS goals, have already achieved 100% compliance in recent years and another 8 are at 75% to 99%.

Government support remains essential for the future of renewable energy in the United States – but the thousands of wind turbines and solar panels installed in recent years provide a strong foundation of fuel-free energy resources, and today’s increasingly popular and cost-competitive renewables will drive continued deployment whether politicians demand it or not.

 

With Its E-Motorcycle, Harley-Davidson Outdoes the Automakers

— June 20, 2014

This week Harley-Davidson unveiled a battery-powered electric motorcycle concept, called the LiveWire, that has surprised the transportation world.  Crankshafts, engine oil, and the smell of gasoline are all integral parts of the Harley-Davidson identity, so most expected the company to be dragged kicking and screaming to the electric vehicle (EV) party.  Instead, Harley revealed a concept vehicle that’s better looking, better designed, and might one day be better selling than most automotive company attempts at EVs.

First, a personal detour: I’ve never been a fan of Harley-Davidson.  Its motorcycles are beautiful to behold and intimidating to hear.  But I’ve always disliked the design ethos of a company that decides to sacrifice performance in order to cosmetically alter the sound that a machine makes.  Harley-Davidson’s notorious engine rumble comes from the single pin engine design that can’t match other performance bikes on speed and torque.  Additionally, Harleys are tuned to have a low idle speed in order to give them a more distinct popping sound when not moving.  This, in turn, leads to excessive wear and tear on the engine, leading to lower expected lifetimes of Harley-Davidson engines compared to their peers.

Lag Gone

Which is why I was surprised to view the videos of the electric concept bike.  Instead of trying to market a machine for environmentalist two-wheelers, the company designed a bike for its core market: people who love motorcycles and the power and freedom they represent.  The drivetrain design provides 52 foot-pounds of torque, which for a vehicle that weighs less than 500 pounds is like strapping a Scud missile to a Smart Car.  The resulting power allows the machine to reach 60 miles per hour in less than 4 seconds.

Motorcycle reviewers note the other element of EV drivetrains that can’t be matched by internal combustion engines: instantaneous torque.  An electric motor responds to the driver’s command immediately, with zero torque lag.  Even the most expensive Ferrari or Lotus has a noticeable buildup to full torque, which is inherent in the nature of how combustion drivetrains work.  I’ve noticed instant torque when driving the Chevrolet Volt and Nissan LEAF – albeit much less dramatically than it probably feels on the Harley LiveWire or the Tesla Roadster.

Sound and Fury

Harley-Davidson has done something that no other incumbent vehicle manufacturer (we would expect EV-only companies like Tesla Motors, Brammo, and Zero to get these things right) has tried to do: it has built an EV around the strengths of the drivetrain.  There are, of course, weaknesses too (most notably a 30- to 60-mile range and a 3-hour recharge time), but in the end people like their motorcycles (and cars) for what they can do and are willing to live with the compromises that have to be made for what they can’t do.  Here’s hoping that the design executives from the major automakers take the LiveWire for a test ride and get inspired to make the next generation of muscle cars and hot rods – with electric drivetrains.

And how about the signature Harley-Davidson sound (which the company once unsuccessfully tried to trademark)? Well, this thing sure sounds different.  Thanks to the high frequency electric motor, it sounds more like a jet engine than a traditional Harley.  But it still makes you instantly respect and appreciate the power and fury that the bike is capable of.

 

California Wrestles with Emerging Energy Business Models

— June 18, 2014

When it comes to energy policy, California is schizophrenic (or perhaps dyslexic).

On the one hand, recent energy storage mandates in the form of last year’s AB 2514 have created opportunities to test out how advanced batteries can help mitigate the frequency and voltage issues associated with high penetrations of variable renewable energy.  Utilities such as San Diego Gas & Electric (SDG&E) have suggested that these mandates plant the seeds for new microgrids, building upon the utility’s success with the Borrego Springs project, which SDG&E recently announced will be expanded.

On the other hand, this year’s AB 2145, derided by critics as the “Monopoly Protection Act,” would introduce a major kink in efforts for the San Francisco Bay Area to give local governments the authority to purchase bulk renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions.  The target of the legislation is a policy vehicle – known as community choice aggregation (CCA) – that was pioneered in states such as Ohio and Massachusetts but has fanned the flames of the controversy in California.

Come Together

Fueled by the poor track record of early retail deregulation pilot programs, CCA allows local governments to aggregate their constituents into a community bulk power purchase program in order to achieve higher economies of scale.  Residents can opt out, but the experience in Marin County reveals that 80% of the customer base chose the CCA preferred green energy program (resulting in a net reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of 19%).  Adjacent Sonoma County began serving customers under its CCA program in May, and San Francisco has been considering a similar CCA program for several years.

Fast forward to the present.  AB 2145, sponsored by a former utility executive, has cleared the Assembly and is up for its first vote in the Senate on June 23.  Ironically, Republicans are generally opposed to the measure (even though the status quo implies greater government intervention to reduce carbon emissions), while key support to this measure is being provided by Democrats (who are aligning with utility union workers).  Although Pacific Gas & Electric’s efforts to derail Marin County’s CCA via a statewide ballot measure failed in 2010, the utility is a key force behind the latest measure.  The opponents include local governments as well as Silicon Valley.

Interestingly enough, another bill designed to more directly pave the way for microgrids in California by modifying the so-called “over the fence” rule was killed.  A recent California Public Utilities Commission white paper identified this regulatory policy as one of the key impediments frustrating California’s efforts to become the world’s leading market for microgrids.

 

Workers of the World Unite for EV Charging

— June 18, 2014

One of the keys to growing sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) is enabling more people to charge their cars at work.  Workplace charging gives employees a consistent location away from home that effectively doubles their electric driving range for commuting while encouraging employees to buy EVs.

“Workplace charging sells vehicles,” said Mark Duvall, director of Electric Transportation and Energy Storage at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), in a recent phone interview.  Duvall said EPRI’s office in Palo Alto, California offers eight workplace chargers, and he often plugs in his Nissan LEAF there.

Companies such as Google, Coca-Cola, General Motors (GM), and others understand the benefits of offering workplace charging and are participating in the U.S. Department of Energy’s Workplace Charging Challenge, a program in which companies pledge to make charging available for their employees.  In May, GM said that the company has installed 401 chargers for their employees, and GM dealerships now have nearly 6,000 EV chargers in place.

Split the Charges

According to Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment report, more than 12,000 workplace chargers will be sold in the United States this year.  By the end of the decade, annual sales will surpass 63,000.

Workplace charging helps companies attract and retain employees who value corporate sustainability.  However, minimizing the cost to the employers while maximizing the utility of the charging stations has its challenges.

The employees who arrive earliest get to plug in first, and since in most cases charging can be completed in a few hours, companies need to establish policies that encourage employees to move their cars to enable others to be able to charge later in the day.  Another alternative is buying charging stations with two plugs, offered by some companies, including Eaton and ChargePoint.  Able to service two parking spots simultaneously, these systems can intelligently divide the available power between EVs.  EPRI is studying ways to increase the load factor (utilization) of chargers on a single circuit, which Duvall says in many cases could serve between four to six PEVs at work per day.

Aboveground Option

The lowest-cost options for employers are to either purchase a non-networked charger and absorb the expense of the equipment and electricity as a cost of doing business, or let an EV charging network operating company maintain the stations and collect the fees to eliminate ongoing costs, according to Duvall.

EV charging station installation can be a considerable expense if additional power has to be brought onsite or if trenching is required to bring power to the parking lot.  One alternative is Envision Solar’s EV ARC solar-powered charging station, which produces all of its energy and stores it in a battery pack, thereby eliminating the need for employers to break ground.  Google has reportedly added the EV ARC to its growing stable of workplace EV chargers.

Duvall will be discussing EPRI’s research into reducing the cost of workplace charging when EV industry participants gather to share their plans for increasing EV adoption at the Plug-In 2014 conference in San Jose, California from July 28 to July 30.

 

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