Navigant Research Blog

Chevy Bolt Could Break Open the EV Market

— February 27, 2015

With GM’s announcement at the Chicago Auto Show that the Chevrolet Bolt battery electric vehicle (BEV) design concept would go into production, one of the biggest surprises of January’s North American International Auto Show became a reality just 1 month later. Although GM officials declined to comment on specific production timing, it’s now certain that the Bolt will be the automaker’s next BEV.

What makes the Bolt so important to GM and the auto industry as a whole is the targeted specification and price point. GM CEO Mary Barra quoted an electric driving range of at least 200 miles for the Bolt and a price of $30,000 after federal tax incentives. According to Navigant Research’s report, Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies, non-gasoline and diesel vehicles (including BEVs) are expected to account for less than 4% of light duty vehicle sales in 2024. If GM can execute on its goals, this car could break the market open and become a truly mainstream-acceptable BEV, with a price tag right in the heart of the market and battery capacity that should alleviate virtually all range anxiety.

Room for Five

According to KBB.com, at the end of 2014, the average transaction price of new vehicles in the United States reached $34,367. Recent media reports have indicated that production of the Bolt could start at GM’s Orion assembly plant north of Detroit by the end of 2016 or early 2017. By that time, the Bolt’s projected $38,000 sticker price won’t be much more than the average. Combined with the low operating costs of a BEV, that makes the Bolt a very attractive consumer financial package.

Another potentially critical argument in favor of the Bolt is its form factor. In recent years, American consumers have increasingly been migrating away from cars to crossover utility vehicles (CUV), particularly compact and midsize models such as the Chevrolet Equinox, Honda CR-V, and Ford Escape. With its taller CUV-style body and underfloor battery pack, the Bolt concept appears to offer ample room for five people—something that cannot be legitimately claimed for the Volt.

Rival Rides

The second-generation Nissan LEAF and the Tesla Model 3 are likely to be the primary competitors to the Bolt. With more than 150,000 sales to date, the LEAF is the best-selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) of all time. A new model is expected in 2016 with a projected range of about 150 miles. Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised the Model 3 by 2017 with a price of $35,000 before incentives and a 200-mile range. But the company’s new $5 billion Gigafactory battery plant, which will supply the Model 3, is not scheduled for completion until the end of 2017. It seems unlikely that the new car will arrive much before then. Tesla also has a history of mixing and matching numbers, claiming range specifications for high-end models along with entry-level prices. The $35,000 Model 3 is likely to deliver significantly less than the 200-mile range claimed by Musk.

GM has a major opportunity with the Bolt to make an impact in the EV market that the Volt has so far failed to achieve. Navigant Research will be watching the development of this car very closely over the next several years.

 

How the Internet of Things is Changing Healthcare

— February 25, 2015

Much talked about in the energy efficiency sector, the Internet of Things (IoT) refers to a world where everything from lamps to HVAC systems to entire grids will one day be connected. The concept has gained traction in recent years, but deployments remain modest. Only an estimated 1% of the world’s buildings use systems to control and network lighting, and only 7% of commercial building lighting is operated using smart controls.

However, controls products offer huge energy consumption savings opportunities. Enlighted Inc., one lighting controls vendor, claims that its wireless sensor system can cut commercial building energy consumption by 50% to 75%. In an environment where healthcare costs are predicted to increase by 6% annually for the next decade and uncertainty lingers concerning the Affordable Care Act, cost-savings opportunities like that are enthusiastically welcomed.

Update Needed

In the healthcare sector, IT investments increasingly emphasize connectivity and networked systems. Networking enables healthcare systems to lower costs while improving patient experiences and facilitating an advanced degree of care customization. Particularly in the United States, where the cost of patient discharge is about $18,000 (versus $6,000 in other developed nations), networked systems can dramatically cut administrative costs.

One of the greatest benefits is the ability to test and diagnose devices remotely. This can help to reduce device downtime and avoid unexpected breakdowns, thus avoiding shutdown costs and patient rescheduling. Connected devices, such as MRIs, CT scanners, and lab test equipment, can signal when critical operational components are being depleted.

Efficient scheduling is another benefit of IoT technology in healthcare facilities. By leveraging utilization statistics, hospital employees are able to optimize equipment use and avoid over-scheduling procedures.

Seeing the Patterns

The expanded capabilities of smart, connected products and the data they generate are becoming necessary in the increasingly competitive healthcare sector. In addition to cost-cutting benefits, the IoT is opening extensive opportunities for improved operational efficiency and patient satisfaction. This emerging Internet of Healthy Things is composed of apps and hardware that promote positive health outcomes and focus on preventive healthcare for individuals. For example, Fitbit’s wearable device captures health-related data, such as sleep patterns, activity levels, and other personal metrics, to provide a complete picture of behavior and baseline vital signs. Medical device companies offer home health-monitoring systems that allow physicians to remotely monitor their patients’ clinical status. For example, Propeller Health’s asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) tracker allows a doctor to remotely monitor patients’ symptoms. Other apps exist to monitor a range of other health issues, including diabetes.

Although the healthcare sector has been traditionally slow to embrace new technology, the IoT offers improvements for both facility management and individual patient care. As tele-health and other in-home care options continue to expand, IoT-enabled devices can enable progressive hospitals to remain competitive—and improve outcomes.

 

Oil Price Retreat Could Spur Government Action

— February 24, 2015

Although the oil market has been historically volatile, the circumstances of the latest price dive suggest that low oil prices may be the new norm. If that’s the case, it could negatively affect both oil companies and the markets for clean transportation technologies like alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs).

Because of U.S. and some state government policies that mandate automakers produce more fuel-efficient vehicles and/or AFVs, low oil prices mean that it’s more expensive for automakers to improve fuel efficiency and produce AFVs to make these vehicles competitive with less fuel-efficient, and less costly, conventional vehicles. If they don’t absorb these costs, they’ll likely wind up paying penalties for being out of compliance with fuel efficiency standards and AFV mandates.

Raise the Tax

Federal and state government subsidies and incentives for AFVs provide some insulation from these costs. Yet, these policies were designed in an environment where oil prices were 30%–50% higher than they currently are. More recently, two policies have been proposed that would be beneficial to automakers seeking to comply with stringent fuel efficiency standards and AFV mandates. The first is an increase in the gas tax; the second, an increase to the U.S. federal incentive for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) and the inclusion of natural gas-powered vehicles in that incentive.

The federal gas tax is currently 18.4 cents per gallon of gasoline and 24.4 cents per gallon of diesel. The tax, which has not been increased since 1993, is used to fund the repair and update of U.S. roads through the federal Highway Trust Fund. In recent years, the fund has been on the brink of insolvency but kept afloat by stopgap measures that provide money from the U.S. general fund. The current proposal, which would increase the tax by 5 cents per gallon over the next 3 years, would provide $210 billion over the next 10 years. The following chart shows the effect the proposal would have on the average U.S. price of gasoline over the next 10 years if oil prices rise to $90/barrel by 2025.

Gas Prices Under Increased Tax Proposal, United States: 2002-2025

(Sources: Navigant Research, U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Getting Flexible

The federal incentive for PEVs currently maxes out at $7,500 per vehicle and is accessed by the PEV owner when they file taxes for the year they bought their PEV. Of note, a PEV owner has to accrue at least $7,500 of taxable income to receive the max incentive. The White House has proposed to increase the incentive to $10,000 per vehicle, provide it as a point-of-sale rebate, and include natural gas-powered vehicles as eligible. The point-of-sale rebate would enable AFV buyers to incorporate the incentive into monthly payments upon purchase and receive the full incentive irrespective of their income.

The effect of both policies would make AFVs more competitive with conventional vehicles on an energy cost basis and open AFVs up to a larger, lower-income market, making it much easier for automakers to comply with federal and state fuel efficiency programs. This is not the first time these policies have been proposed, and it’s likely they’ll meet similar fates as their predecessors. However, low oil prices do introduce a new dynamic that may provide some flexibility in Congress, as well as increased pressure from interest groups that may create the necessary support.

 

Vestas, Mitsubishi Settle on Offshore Turbine Design

— February 24, 2015

In 2014, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) formed a joint venture with Vestas called MHI Vestas Offshore Wind. The strategy behind that joint venture is now substantially clearer. MHI’s decision to stop the commercialization of its 7 MW SeaAngel offshore wind turbine, to focus instead on the Vestas V164-8.0 MW turbine under MHI Vestas Offshore Wind, makes sense given Vestas’ expertise in the offshore market and the need to move forward without confusion or conflict between the two turbine platforms.

Technology-wise, the SeaAngel’s novel Digital Displacement Transmission Technology (DDT) looked like the more advanced drivetrain system. It employs a sophisticated series of hydraulic pumps, values, and motors to transfer the energy from the constantly varying rotor speed to a fixed speed generator, without the use of a gearbox. No other wind turbine employs a hydraulic drivetrain like this.

That novel technology, however, adds uncertainty to the construction and operation of offshore wind farms.

Risk Avoidance

The increased construction and turbine servicing costs and associated risks for offshore wind increase the rate of return that investors expect to up to 12% compared to an onshore wind farm’s 7% to 9% in developed markets. Once you add the risk of employing a completely new transmission technology system, you likely outweigh the benefits offered by the new drivetrain design. The joint venture with Vestas provides access to a similarly sized turbine based on a proven and more conventional, medium speed geared technology, eliminating the added risk.

Although Vestas’ turbine is also new in the market, the company’s offshore turbine reliability has dramatically improved since 2004, when it had to replace the transformers and generators in all 81 of its then new V80 machines at Horns Rev offshore wind farm. Much refinement and advancement specific to offshore has been achieved by Vestas and its peers.

No Confusion

It’s also important to send a clear signal to the market that the Vestas V164-8.0 turbine is the primary turbine offering of the joint venture, without a separate Mitsubishi-branded product offered outside or within the joint venture. Although the SeaAngel turbine will disappear as a stand-alone brand, testing of the hydraulic technology will continue.

Onshore testing of the full-size 7 MW turbine officially began on February at a test center in the United Kingdom for validation of the drivetrain design. A similar hydraulic-powered turbine may be installed later in 2015 in Japan on a floating platform,  depending on the results from the U.K. tests.

Ultimately, the aim of the effort is to focus on refinement and validation of the hydraulic drivetrain for possible future use under the MHI Vestas joint venture. The floating platform may, in coming years, become part of the joint venture’s offerings as well. For now, though, the V164-8.0 turbine using proven Vestas technology is marching out to sea, having recently landed its first order of 32 units for the 258 MW Burbo Bank Extension project on the west coast of the United Kingdom in the Irish Sea. Hiring has just begun to build the 80 meter turbine blades.

Roberto Labastida contributed to this post.

 

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