Navigant Research Blog

Energy Storage Association Offers a Call to Action for New Policy

— December 14, 2017

In collaboration with Navigant Research, the Energy Storage Association (ESA) recently published its latest white paper, 35×25: A Vision for Energy Storage, analyzing the evolving needs of the electric grid and the market drivers powering rapid energy storage industry growth. The study introduces the current state of the industry along with a vision where widespread storage deployments result in major economic, environmental, and social benefits.

Key to the paper’s findings is a call to action section outlining policies and programs being implemented around the country to support the growth of the industry. Over the coming years, changes in both government and regulatory policies will have a substantial effect on how the market develops and at what scale. Players in the market should ensure they fully understand the changes that may be coming and how they will shape future opportunities.

ESA’s call to action highlights considerations and actions for both legislators and industry regulators that seek to capitalize on the multitude of benefits provided by energy storage. For legislators, there are four primary categories of initiatives being explored that offer both direct and indirect support as follows:

  • Energy storage impact studies: A strong understanding of the benefits of energy storage is a great first step, allowing local stakeholders to quantify the impacts of storage deployments, such as upfront and ongoing expenses, grid operating cost savings, improved reliability, emissions reductions, and job creation. 
  • Procurement targets or mandates: Multiple states have implemented targets that serve to clarify long-term policy objectives for the industry, spurring action from utilities and providing operational experience for stakeholders. 
  • Incentive programs: Including subsidies, grants, and tax credits, which lower the costs for new storage projects to accelerate market growth and establish a sustainable local industry. 
  • Clean energy standards: A clean energy standard, or clean portfolio standard, is similar to a renewable portfolio standard; however, it often has a broader focus. States including Connecticut and Vermont have implemented standards to ensure storage is compared side-by-side with other resources in planning processes and require electricity providers to implement new technologies.

Many of the legislative actions taken to support energy storage, such as subsidies and procurement mandates, have received significant media attention. However, in many cases, the local regulators have more influence over a market’s growth. Out of an obligation to protect ratepayers and oversee utility investments, regulators must work collaboratively with all stakeholder groups to facilitate constructive dialogue around the deployment and integration of storage systems. ESA’s white paper outlines steps that can be taken by regulators as follows:

  • Clear rules regarding storage: Do current regulations adequately account for energy storage participation? If not, work with utilities, industry participants, and research organizations to better define participation methods and strategies for new technologies.
  • Updated modeling in proceedings: Many of the modeling tools used in integrated resource planning proceedings today lack sufficient granularity and an evaluation methodology that properly incorporates energy storage. For example, models for storage should assess the effect of deployments at specific locations and over sub-hourly time intervals.
  • Streamlined interconnection standards: Despite efforts, current interconnection procedures often pose a significant barrier to new entrants. Streamlining interconnection processes is critical to enable grid modernization.
  • The effects of rate design: New rate structures that accurately reflect the locational and time-based costs and benefits of integrating distributed energy resources, including energy storage, should be explored.

At this stage, it is critical that industry participants with in-depth knowledge on the true costs and benefits of energy storage technologies participate in policy development to ensure a level playing field is created. Along with greater detail on the policy initiatives listed above, ESA’s white paper quantifies the diverse benefits of energy storage and how this disruptive technology can transform the electricity industry.

 

Mountain West States Buy In on Regional EV Fast Charging Network

— December 14, 2017

To support the growth and adoption of EVs on their regions’ roadways, governors of eight Mountain West states signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to work collaboratively on a regional EV fast charging network spanning across 5,000 miles of freeway. They will also work on a plan for the EV charging infrastructure to link their states together. The states that have signed on so far are Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming.

Anticipating EV Population Increases

These states have recognized the growth of EV populations and anticipate EVs will continue to penetrate the markets. As discussed in our Market Data: EV Geographic Forecasts report and illustrated in the following chart, Navigant Research expects sales of over 1.6 million plug-in EVs (PEVs) by 2026 in North America.

Historic and Projected Sales of PEVs, Base Scenario, North America: 2012-2026

Source: Navigant Research

Pursuing Goals

The goals of the MoU are to accomplish the following:

  • Coordinate station locations to maximize use and minimize inconsistency between charging infrastructure.
  • Develop practices and procedures to encourage the adoption of EVs and address range anxiety.
  • Develop operating standards for charging stations.
  • Incorporate EV charging stations in the planning and development process.
  • Encourage automotive OEMs to stock a variety of EVs in participating states.
  • Collaborate on funding and finding opportunities for the network.

Direct current (DC) fast charging stations will cost between $150,000 and $200,000 each. It would require 50 to 60 stations to electrify the key travel corridors in Colorado, according to officials.

Following in Their Footsteps

Unsurprisingly, West Coast states have already tackled a similar project. In 2013, California, Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia signed on to the Pacific Coast Action Plan on Climate and Energy. They committed to the creation of an electrified highway corridor connecting the three states and the province. In the years since, the governments have been able to install a network of DC fast chargers along Interstate 5, Highway 99, and other major roadways dubbed the West Coast Electric Highway.

Tackling the Funding Puzzle

The Mountain West states are looking for sources of funding as they move forward with their own plans for a regional highway. While the West Coast Electric Highway project was able to capitalize on federal grants and funding to capture investments, the current administration and majority party seem less keen on assisting the adoption of EVs, meaning the Mountain West states may have to look elsewhere. Colorado has identified and is already planning on using some of the funds received from the Volkswagen settlement, Electrify America, to drive interest in public-private partnerships to develop its electrified highway infrastructure. That being said, the MoU does not specify funding requirements or timeframes for the project or any of the states.

Absent the support of the federal government, the success of this regional project rests on the political will of the state governments and continued support from elected officials, automakers, utilities, and planners.

 

Even If It Doesn’t Survive, the Tesla Vision Has Already Won

— December 14, 2017

Whatever the ultimate fate of Tesla as a business, the vision of its founders seems assured to come to fruition. They set out nearly 15 years ago to build an electric sports car that would show a skeptical public that EVs aren’t the car form of broccoli (good for you, but not much fun). The envisioned electric car would be a gateway to electrifying all transportation.

With every new job at an EV maker, we are moving closer to that goal. Sales of the Chevrolet Bolt EV climb steadily with each month, Nissan is about to launch the second-generation LEAF, and more options will arrive in the coming months. Perhaps most importantly, the future combination of automated driving and electrification will provide great synergy in making transportation clean and safe.

The Bolt and LEAF are examples of automakers taking inspiration from Tesla and mixing traditional expertise in mass manufacturing and support. These automakers and most others are now aggressively developing and planning deployment of automated EVs like the Chevy Bolts being tested in San Francisco, California by GM unit Cruise Automation.

Can Tesla Stay Afloat?

Sadly, Tesla’s own quarterly financial statements don’t bode well for the brand that kick-started this next era of mobility. The company has shown an inability to execute on the core task of profitably building consistently reliable, high quality products to customers. The 3Q 2017 report showed the company was spending more than $2,000 per year per vehicle providing service while only generating $1,000 in revenue. Given the reduced maintenance an EV should require compared to an ICE, this is a clear indicator of Tesla’s spending on honoring warranties. As the in-service vehicle fleet grows, this problem will grow rapidly unless the company can come to grips with the basics of mass manufacturing.

As Tesla attempts to ramp up production of the Model 3, it must first address these challenges—or the reputation the brand has built around Elon Musk’s cult of personality will be squandered.

The Quandary of Some Typical Tesla Customers

Take, for example, a Northern California couple that can afford to buy a Tesla, including the Model X they own. He loves technology and is the definitive early adopter, often buying the latest life-enhancing gadgets. His CEO wife is far more pragmatic, though she also appreciates what technology can do to make life easier and better. She wants to replace her current premium German performance car with an EV when the lease is up in the next month. On the surface, another Tesla would be the obvious choice, but they’ve had numerous issues with it that have taken multiple service trips to resolve. Some issues, like an Autopilot system that has a predilection for randomly shooting toward guardrails, remain unresolved.

They looked at the 2018 LEAF this week, and she is seriously considering it. While it lacks the performance of the Tesla, she expects it to be far more reliable, coming from a company that knows how to bend and weld steel. Despite the problems with the Tesla, her husband wants to stick with the brand to support the vision. Fortunately, he’s in a financial position where he can do that. Most of the car buying public can’t afford to be so tolerant.

If Musk wants Tesla to remain a viable business after he rockets off to Mars, he needs to start listening to frustrated Tesla owners like this pragmatic CEO rather than reveling in his adoring fans.

 

Sustainability as a Business Model

— December 12, 2017

Energy efficiency and emissions goals form an important piece of sustainability initiatives for many corporations and other professional entities. Sustainability is often solely associated with energy and climate-related metrics, but it is not the only factor contributing to a sustainable organization. Investors are starting to recognize what a sustainability-focused business approach can mean for long-term organizational success. Increasingly, sustainability performance (or environmental and social governance) is being defined more broadly to include social issues such as education, injustice, and poverty.

UN Sustainable Development Goals

In 2015, the UN launched the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with the support of 193 nations. This agenda includes a set of 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) and 169 targets that came into effect in January 2016. The purpose of the SDGs is to create standards that can measure progress on key issues like combating poverty, climate change, and injustice—among others. The UN agenda is designed to create an economic environment where the deployment of capital resources is considered in terms of economic, social, and environmental criteria. SDGs foster a discussion on investment quality beyond just the expected financials.

Socially Responsible Investment: A Growing Track Record of Outperformance       

Socially responsible investing may have begun in the 1700s with the Quakers, who refused to support “sinful” businesses such as tobacco, firearms, and the slave trade. More recently, sustainable investing has taken on the guise of promoting environmentally sustainable businesses, although financial performance is at the fore. The Morgan Stanley Institute for Sustainable Investing performed a study on over 10,000 sustainable equity funds that found that these investments have met or exceeded the performance of comparable traditional investments. UBS, a leading global investment bank, claims to have $970 billion, or 35% of its investable portfolio, placed in socially conscious investments. Al Gore’s sustainability-focused private investment fund, Generation Investment Management (GIM), has returned about 16.3% after fees since September 2014, while the MSCI World Index has returned 7.7% over the same period. Assessing the sustainability of companies can be done using the Dow Jones Sustainability Indices, which are a group of benchmarks that track the stock performance of companies in terms of economic, environmental, and social criteria.

The Foundation of High Performing Companies

Why do sustainable companies often outperform their peers? For Gore and GIM, not only is sustainability good for humanity, it is also a significant indicator of investment risk, management integrity and quality, robustness of business models, and products and services that are aligned with real-world problems and needs. Put together, these characteristics can identify high performing companies that provide consistent returns. An interesting note about GIM and its investment thesis is that it has broadened the scope of the definition of sustainability to include company diversity, human resources practices, community interaction, employee benefits, healthcare, and the values and ethics of the C-suite—along with the usual energy- and climate-related strategies. Each sustainable investment decision is aimed at choosing the factors that are most important to the sector where the company competes.

Many companies that use Navigant’s Energy research and services deliver energy-related products and services that can help their own customers meet sustainability goals. However, energy and emissions are only a small component of sustainable participation in the global economy. Similar to the dramatic efficiency results that can be achieved with a holistic approach to commercial building energy management, corporate sustainability efforts—and often business performance—can be dramatically improved with a more holistic view of what sustainable business performance means and how it can be achieved. There do not have to be any tradeoffs, and the real-world results are starting to speak for themselves.

 

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