Navigant Research Blog

Premium Auto Brands Lead the Way to 200+ Mile BEVs

— February 22, 2018

In the race to create long-range battery EVs (BEVs), premium brands are taking the lead. Navigant Research projects over 6 million BEV sales globally by 2026. Because range anxiety is a leading deterrent of consumers looking to purchase an EV, increasing the range of BEVs will be crucial to expanding the market.

Over the past few years, several premium brands have announced they would bring to market BEVs with capabilities of at least 200 miles, with many pushing that number to over 300 miles of range. Apart from Tesla’s Model S and Model X, no premium automaker has released these long-range BEVs. However, 2018 is anticipated to be the year we start to see these new models come to market.

Premium Automaker Electric Promises

The following timeline showcases the increase in announced/expected premium brand long-range BEVs:

Announced Premium Brand 200 + Mile Range BEVs

(Source: Navigant Research)

Audi and Jaguar will likely continue Tesla’s long-range trend in 2018 with the crossover style Jaguar i-Pace and Audi’s SUV e-tron Quattro. The i-Pace is expected to have a range of 220 miles, while the e-tron Quattro will have around 300 miles of range. Audi is also expected to release another all-electric SUV by 2019, along with Aston Martin’s RapidE, Mercedes Benz’s Concept EQ, Porsche’s Mission E, and the Fisker EMotion. Looking to 2020 and beyond, BMW, Tesla, Infinti, and Volvo are all anticipated to release long-range BEVs—in Tesla’s case, the revamped Roadster with 600 miles of range (and a hefty price tag).

Premium brand commitments to electrification comes in more than just the form of single vehicle announcements. Volvo, Aston Martin, and Jaguar Land Rover have announced plans to go all electric or hybrid over the next decade, with Volvo promising this lineup by 2019. In 2017, Porsche installed its first 350 kW charging station at its Berlin office. The ultrafast charger is being developed for the Mission E to allow customers to recharge quickly.

Affordable, Long-Range Vehicles Not Far Behind

More details of these long-range vehicles will be unveiled closer to the release dates, but it is already clear that premium automakers are committing to an electric future. As with many consumer markets, premium and luxury automakers are often early adopters of trends and technologies that are later picked up by economy brands.

While these premium brand long-range BEVs will have a hold of the market for the time being, economy brands like Ford and Hyundai are announcing their own long-range BEVs, which will likely have a substantially lower price tag. Some premium brands, like Tesla, have begun offering less expensive electric models to meet this demand for non-luxury long-range BEVs and to compete in both market segments. If automakers stick to their electric promises and all begin producing EVs, we will continue to reduce emissions from the transportation sector and move toward a greener, cleaner future.

 

Are Smart Devices Too Smart for Their Own Good?

— February 22, 2018

There is so much promise around how smart devices will make our lives more comfortable, convenient, efficient, and automated. These devices are supposed to learn from our lifestyle patterns, analyze this information in real-time, and perform tasks seamlessly in the background, without it even occurring to the user that all of this smart stuff is happening. I have bought into this promise, having adopted several digital assistant-enabled devices and connected products, because I can see a future when all of this tech comes together to create truly smart homes. And I’m not the only one—these futuristic ideas about tech seamlessly, automatically operating in the background of our lives can be seen in popular media like Black Mirror and Her. This future is imaginable, lingering on the horizon.

The Problem with “Smarts”

However, we are still at the precipice of the technology revolution supporting the future scenarios as seen in pop culture. Don’t get me wrong, technologies emerging today really are smart, and are already making our lives significantly better. But at this time, many these devices are not actually delivering on their promise, and they don’t work that well in our everyday lives. For example, my colleague, who is also an early adopter of smart technology, has been having issues with his ecobee3 lite. His smart thermostat has started preheating at such early hours of the morning that he wakes up before his alarm clock, sweating. ecobee customer support has suggested that the problem may be because he likes to sleep cold, at 60°F, and wake up warm, at 70°F, and that the large variance in setpoint means the thermostat must kick on the heating system well in advance to make up the difference in temperature by the time my colleague is awake. The issue makes sense logically, but ultimately my colleague shouldn’t have to compromise on his desired temperatures. A smart thermostat should be smart enough to figure it out. And his Nest isn’t any better—when the cooling season comes around, his Nest sends him alerts that it is unable to activate his cooling system, when his home doesn’t even have a cooling system. I’ve heard countless stories of people tearing smart thermostats out of the wall to replace them with programmable thermostats, never opening the digital assistant device they got for Christmas because they don’t really know what smart things it can do, and returning smart plugs for plugs with a simple timer.

As a consumer, these examples have put doubts in my mind about how smart these products really are. As a research analyst, when I attend shows like CES where some of the most impressive and innovative products are on display, it makes me skeptical about how these devices will actually perform in the home. These devices are peddled to consumers as seamless, automatic, and easy to use, but sometimes it seems we are spending more time managing them than they are managing our lives. Perhaps these devices are too smart for their own good, and consumers are not ready for how advanced these products can be—we just want the old, dumb devices that we know will work. The learning curve for smart technology is steep and we are still in an early stage of piloting and innovation, but as these technologies reach the hands of mainstream consumers, vendors need to ensure that their smart products are delivering on their promises of being smart.

 

European Utilities Will Never Tame Enterprise Data, but That’s Okay

— February 22, 2018

The last decade bore witness to the beginning of the energy transition. In 2018, the European energy transition is well underway. Without doubt, the next decade will be the most disruptive in the industry’s history. Investment in innovation is running at unprecedented levels as incumbent energy suppliers seek out the business models that will serve the 21st century customer. It is now commonplace for utilities to acquire technology companies; 10 years ago, this would have been largely unheard of. In addition, startups are bringing new products and services to market at a pace which the industry has never experienced. While the energy transition is concerned with decentralization, decarbonization, customer centricity, and increased competition, none of this will be possible without a concomitant digital transformation.

Energy Supply and Distribution Operation Will Significantly Transform

In Defining the Digital Future of Utilities, Navigant Research discussed what future business models could look like in 2030. European utilities are leading this transformation. The old utility supply businesses are rapidly shifting focus to energy services, based on a decentralized energy value chain. Many European utilities are already shifting focus away from traditional supply, recognizing that future value lies in helping customers reduce energy consumption, become greener, become more responsible for their own power needs, and create community-based business models for power generation and consumption. In the future, energy service providers will also help maximize economic returns on customers’ investments made into demand energy resources (DER). This will be done either by aggregating customers’ loads and supply to offer large-scale grid services, or by providing a platform for customers to buy and sell electricity with whomever they want.

Managing future distribution networks gets much harder with high concentrations of DER. Consequently, distribution network operators (DNOs) are undergoing their own transition to distribution system operators (DSOs), shifting focus from managing assets to active network management and the provision of distribution platforms that will be the mainstay of new energy services. This transition is essentially digital: the first step must be to improve visibility into distribution networks. Once a DSO has visibility, it can then improve control. Flexibility markets will be increasingly important in the future and their data demands are even greater. If flexibility markets expand into residential loads and supply, the DSO must allocate a time-sensitive value to each of these assets. This is not an easy task, and requires the integration of existing grid management applications, plus additional functionality not yet in existence.

Digitization Requires a Pragmatic Approach to Data Management

Neither the energy service provider nor DSO business model is viable without data. Data is critical to the energy transition and data flows are critical to electrons. European suppliers and DNOs must prepare for the energy transition by undergoing a digital transformation. While most understand the benefits, few fully understand the requirements for digital transformation, the full costs involved, or the enormity of the task.

The exponential growth of connected devices with relevance to the energy transition (devices like smart grid monitoring and control and in-home smart thermostats) create an exponential increase in data. Few, if any, utilities will ever tame this data; however, the smartest utilities will create IT infrastructure to maximize the value derived from this data. They will invest in platforms that are sufficiently flexible to stack increasingly sophisticated use cases, rather than reinvent technologies whenever requirements change.

However, this investment in platforms must be matched by more prosaic investments in data management. A digital platform is only as useful as the quality and completeness of the data on which it relies, and the analytics algorithms that provide insights.

 

RenewableCOIN: A Cleaner, Useful Global Cryptocurrency

— February 20, 2018

Cryptocurrencies are reported to be contributing significantly to electric demand, accounting for approximately 48 TWh of demand globally according to a study by digiconomist.com. This is equivalent to the electric consumption of approximately 4.5 million US households. The unfortunate part of this is that this electric usage is being wasted in the pursuit of solving arbitrarily complex cryptographic puzzles, known as mining, for the sole purpose of artificially managing the increase of a cryptocurrency’s supply.

For example, Bitcoin and Ethereum, the two most popular cryptocurrencies, engage a proof of work process in which a growing chain of hashed content is further hashed at an increasing level of complexity. To solve the puzzle, a miner must apply a series of random numbers against a hashed blockchain. If the miner is successful in finding the right number sequence, the solution enters into the growing transaction log, which can then be quickly and efficiently verified by the bitcoin network as proof. The successful miner receives a set block award of coins. However, the mining process is energy intensive, requiring high powered mining equipment that runs round-the-clock at a significant energy cost.

The Pros and Cons of Blockchain

Blockchain technology is a sophisticated and secure digital transaction register that can store and confirm transactions. It was originally intended to solve real-world problems, not contribute to them. At the moment, energy is being used (wasted) for the purpose of mining cryptocurrencies of phantom value. Accordingly, an alternative, more appropriate use for blockchain technology is proposed—RenewableCOIN—a global, blockchain-based virtual currency and compliance mechanism that is intended to further enhance the transactability of what are currently known as renewable energy credits or RECs.

Incentivizing Renewable Energy Generation

RECs are issued in compliance jurisdictions for the purposes of tracking compliance against renewable energy procurement targets. Load serving entities (typically, your local utility) buy a set number of RECs that is equivalent to the target percentage of renewable energy set by a state mandate. Similarly, RECs are minted for every 1 MWh of renewable electric generation. The key difference is that it incentivizes the production of clean energy, not wasteful use. Accordingly, one Renewable Energy Coin (RenewableCOIN) could be awarded for each megawatt-hour of renewable generation.

State Standards Vary

Every state in the US has varying requirements with respect to which technologies comply with its own renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). For example, while wind and solar are widely accepted as a renewable resource, others also accept biofuels-based generation facilities which emit CO2 gases.

To keep track of whether a coin is jurisdictionally acceptable, coin denominations which specify where the coin was generated and under which RPS rules it qualifies are established for these ends. If a local market becomes oversaturated with renewable generation, which we certainly hope it does, then further generated coin may be converted into a global RenewableCOIN of global value.

Companies, individuals, and others who wish to meet their own renewable energy targets can purchase and retire coins in the global market through transfers into a special digital wallet which, once entered, will not permit further transfers and sales of the coin. Should the demand for the global coin increase, developers would be incentivized to mine the currency by installing more renewables anywhere in the world, contributing to the global reduction of greenhouse gases.

RenewableCOIN could serve as the global network for jurisdictional, compliance-based REC markets and a global market for RECs used to meet the needs of corporations and countries seeking to match energy consumption with renewable energy.

 

Blog Articles

Most Recent

By Date

Tags

Clean Transportation, Digital Utility Strategies, Electric Vehicles, Energy Technologies, Policy & Regulation, Renewable Energy, Smart Energy Practice, Smart Energy Program, Transportation Efficiencies, Utility Transformations

By Author


{"userID":"","pageName":"2018 February","path":"\/2018\/02","date":"2\/25\/2018"}