The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) continues to track the ongoing saga of coal-fired generation plant retirements within the electric power industry. In March, the organization forecasted that up to 13 GW of coal-fired generation would be retired this year, due to both aging infrastructure and environmental mandates. The total of scheduled coal-fired generating capacity retirements is split between 10.2 GW of bituminous coal and 2.8 GW of subbituminous coal. Most of this retiring coal capacity is found in the Appalachian region: slightly more than 8 GW combined in Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia, and Indiana. There are also plants in Alabama and in Midwestern states expected to be retired.
In June, the EIA released its analysis of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’S) proposed Clean Power Plan (CPP). The report looks at both capacity additions and plant retirements over the 2010-2040 timeframe. It illustrates how renewables play a critical role with different market conditions and policy assumptions. Key differences in scenarios analyzed involve the timing and the extent that wind and solar electric generating capacity additions occur, as well as retirements of some generation capacity, mainly coal-fired units and relatively inefficient power plants that use natural gas or oil-fired boilers to run steam turbines.
Electric Capacity Additions and Retirements, United States: 2014-2040
(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration)
Interestingly enough, even without the proposed CPP, 40 GW of existing coal-fired capacity and 46 GW of existing natural gas/oil-fired capacity are expected to be retired by 2040 in the forecast reference case. Cases that implement the proposed CPP more than double these retirements, particularly for coal. In the base policy case, 90 GW of coal-fired capacity and 62 GW of natural gas/oil-fired capacity is expected to be retired by 2040. In the policy extension case, as emission rates continue declining after 2030, over 100 GW of coal-fired generating capacity and 74 GW of natural gas/oil-fired generating capacity is expected to be retired by 2040.
All About Timing
When coal retirements happen is influenced by implementation of these environmental rules that may require power plant operators to either retrofit power plants or receive less revenue because of lower levels of operation. As a result, many coal retirements are expected to occur during the implementation of the EPA’s Mercury and Air Toxics rule (in both the reference case and base policy case).
Whether one takes a conservative reference case view or an aggressive growth position, in our lifetimes, we will enjoy cleaner power provided by natural gas, wind, and solar generation, as well as blue skies. Though the U.S. Supreme Court has recently ruled against the CPP, which may throw some of the retirement schedule to the wind, with the coal generation fleet rapidly aging, the future still looks very bright.
Tags: Clean Power Plan, Energy Technologies, Renewable Energy, Utility Transformations
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