Navigant Research Blog

Trucks Largely Overlooked in Emissions Targets

— October 15, 2014

In the transportation sector, trucks are a bit like offensive lineman in football: the heftier bodies do the hardest work, but they don’t get the same amount of attention as the smaller and more nimble players.  But trucks will need greater recognition for their impact on fuel consumption if goals for signification emissions reductions are to be reached.

Most of the discussion (and efforts) around improving fuel economy and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is centered on light duty (LD) cars and the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) ambitious Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirement, while neglecting the first rules for medium and heavy duty (M/HD) truck emissions reductions that the EPA implemented in 2011.  M/HD trucks and buses are expected to represent 32.6% of the total fuel consumption in the United States, according to Navigant Research’s report, Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption. Considering that light trucks (including minivans and SUVs) represent 51% of LD vehicles sold in the United States (according to Automotive News), trucks are the clear majority in the opportunity to reduce emissions.

Energy Consumption in Transportation by Vehicle Type, United States: 2014-2020

John truckblog chart

(Source: Navigant Research)

The alternative fuel truck options on the market (including electrified, natural gas, and propane vehicles) are insignificant in comparison to the numerous alternative car choices.  According to Navigant Research’s report, Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles, alternative vehicles (which also include buses) are expected to represent just 3.3% of all new large vehicle sales in 2014.

PEV Gap

Because of the surge in fuel production and the low price, natural gas vehicle development and sales have the greatest momentum among alternative fuel trucks.  Global truck and bus manufacturer MAN will be adding compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks to its offerings, while GM is adding a CNG bi-fuel option for its 2015 Silverado and Sierra pickup trucks.  Westport recently launched an enhanced spark-ignited (ESI) natural gas system that the company claims offers a 10% improvement in power and torque over a baseline diesel engine.  For the conversions market, Skygo Fuel Systems now offers a bi-fuel system that continuously blends natural gas and diesel based on performance requirements.

Natural gas has the advantage over full electrification in the truck market, as it can provide similar driving range to diesel without being weighed down by batteries, and the bi-fuel option provides a safeguard if a natural gas refueling station isn’t conveniently accessible.

A significant draw for electrification of utility vehicles is the ability to provide exportable power. Pacific Gas and Electric, which is one of the largest truck fleet operators in the United States, has partnered with EDI to develop a Class 5 utility truck that can be used to provide temporary power when an outage occurs.  Electric power takeoff (ePTO) trucks can operate equipment throughout the day without having to run the diesel engine, which can result in much greater reductions in fuel savings than using battery power when the vehicles are in motion.

The gaping hole in the truck lineup is in the lack of hybrid and plug-in pickup trucks. Truck manufacturers such as Ford are focused on lightweighting via aluminum rather than electrifying the drive train.  Nissan created a pickup version of its LEAF battery electric vehicle (BEV) but has no intention of commercializing it.

 

California Reaffirms EV Leadership

— October 13, 2014

California Governor Jerry Brown has doubled down on the Golden State’s commitment to electric vehicles (EVs) by enacting six laws aimed at promoting EVs.  The package of legislation includes two laws aimed at making EVs available to a broader audience of individuals – one for people who live in multi-unit dwellings and another with incentives for getting EVs into carshare programs.

Landlords in California now cannot block the installation of EV charging equipment through restrictive leases if renters agree to pay the costs.  This law will help California’s large renter population join the EV crowd and could help the state reach its goal of 1 million EVs on the road by 2023.  Most purchasers of EVs to date live in single-family homes, and this law removes one potential obstacle for broader adoption.

According to Navigant Research’s report, EV Geographic Forecasts, which was produced before these new laws were passed, California was likely to have approximately 820,000 light duty EVs on the road by 2023.

PEVs on the Road, California and the United States: 2014-2023

(Source: Navigant Research)

Smoggy and Dry

California is home to 7 of the 10 cities in the United States with the worst air quality, including smoggy Bakersfield, and has endured 3 consecutive years of drought, which is motivating Governor Brown to continue efforts to promote emissions-free driving in the state.  Some of those afflicted communities might breathe a little easier in future years, as another of the new laws targets incentives for placing EVs in carsharing programs in lower income areas with air quality problems.  EVs make sense in carshare and rental programs, as users don’t have to refuel the vehicles, and motorists who have a good experience could later become EV purchasers.  However, even after federal and state incentives, higher priced EVs are still out of reach of many consumers.

Incentives for plug-in vehicle drivers, such as HOV access, have proven critical in increasing EV adoption.  States such as California, Georgia, Oregon, and Washington that offer financial and other incentives are also the top sellers in EVs per capita.  According to HybridCars.com, sales of plug-in hybrids are up 44% over last year, while sales of battery electric vehicles are up 20%.

 

EV Makers and Utilities Unite to Realize V2G Potential

— August 7, 2014

The first major trial using electric vehicles (EVs) across the United States to strengthen the grid is about to begin.  For the first time, multiple utilities and car companies are cooperating in a deployment of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) technologies coordinated by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

Announced at the Plug-In 2014 conference in San Jose, California, on July 29, the Open Grid Integration Platform will use grid standards for utilities to communicate with a newly created central server that will relay the information to vehicles in many states.  Sumitomo Electric developed the platform, which enables automakers to relay information to vehicles using telematics systems or any communications pathway of their choosing, according to Sunil Chhaya, the innovator and technology leader for energy and transportation at EPRI.  The pilot project relies on smart grid standards (OpenADR and SEP2) to push V2G to become viable nationally; previously, trials required custom hardware and software that was specific to a utility and EV charging station.

Smartphones + Cars + the Grid

V2G applications, including demand response, frequency regulation, and voltage regulation, modulate the power flowing to (and, in some cases, from) EVs to enable grid operators to match power supply and demand.  Phase 1 of the project will test demand response; future phases will trial regulation services.  According to Navigant Research’s report, Vehicle to Grid Technologies, by 2022, demand response programs will be able to control nearly 640 MW of load from EVs.

The project will include cars from eight automakers (Honda, BMW Group, Chrysler, Ford, GM, Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Motors, and Toyota) and involves 15 utilities and grid operators, including major utilities like Duke Energy, Southern Company, Southern California Edison, and Pacific Gas and Electric.

If this technology is commercialized, automakers are expected to integrate grid communications into mobile phone applications so that EV drivers will know when their vehicles are participating in a grid service event.

No Fees, Yet

While there are many ways that information can be shared between the grid and EVs, Watson Collins, the manager of business development at Northeast Utilities, said in an interview at Plug-In that the extensive project will determine whether this method is “the best, lowest-cost way.”

Collins said the trial will not include payments to the participants who will primarily be utility employees, but a commercial program would provide incentives for participation.  Each utility’s public utilities commission (PUC) would have to approve any V2G compensation system.

Automakers could charge fees for the use of their communications platforms in V2G services.  This test platform does not require the participation of EV supply equipment or EV service companies, which, if implemented nationally, could cut them out from future V2G revenue streams.

Chhaya added that utilities will benefit, as they will be able to target potential stress on feeders or transformers caused by EV power consumption.  Utilities will be able to see which houses the EVs are drawing power from to determine how much load is coming from the car versus the residence.  This will enable utilities to “use a scalpel instead of a butcher knife” to detect and manage EV load in specific geographic locations.

 

Leasing EV Chargers and Profiting

— July 10, 2014

There are about as many business models for operating electric vehicle (EV) charging stations as there are flavors of Baskin-Robbins ice cream, but so far, none of them have been clearly profitable.  While worldwide sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have grown to more than 12,000 monthly, in most locations today, there isn’t enough traffic for EV charging stations to directly pay back their cost within 3 years, which is a typical required return on investment.

Several hardware companies are trying to lower the cost of the equipment, which could reduce the payback period.  In the United Kingdom, electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) company POD Point is now leasing charging stations to lower the upfront cost.  For approximately £50 ($85) per month installed, POD Point will provide a commercial charger, which the company says requires just two charging sessions per day to be profitable.  Leasing can be a viable option for companies looking for an easy way to enter the market, and the leasing company has a vested interest in making sure that the stations remain operational.

Dig It

For companies that prefer to purchase the hardware outright, ClipperCreek recently began to offer a commercial charger for just $395 before installation costs.  A pay-by-mobile phone system from Liberty Access Technologies that manages up to 10 charging stations and enables fees to be collected can be added on.

The cost of installation, which can require trenching, running conduit curbside, and upgraded power delivery to the location, remains the Achilles’ heel of profitable EV charging, and unfortunately, there’s little leeway in reducing the contractor and cabling fees.

Automakers are getting involved to lower the cost and pain of EV charging.  Tesla bundles the costs of accessing its SuperCharger network with the vehicle purchase price, while Nissan is paying for the first 2 years of charging a LEAF with its recently announced No Charge to Charge program.  Nissan has teamed up with AeroVironment, NRG, and the Car Charging Group on the EZ-Charge program, which gives EV owners a single payment card for accessing chargers from these EVSE providers.  EV charging company ChargePoint was supposed to work with EZ-Charge too, but backed out of the agreement.

In Japan, Nissan has joined with Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi to form Nippon Charge Service, an EV charging company that will provide incentives for companies to offer commercial EV charging at retail outlets.

Lattes Not Included

As detailed in Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle Charging Equipment report, to be profitable today, most commercial EV charging stations need to bundle the cost of charging with some other service or fee structure.  These include combining EV charging with conventional parking fees, valet service at a hotel, or offering subscription services that combine home and public charging (a la the NRG eVgo network).  Startup Volta in Hawaii and Juice Bar have taken another approach by using advertising revenue to reduce the cost of a charging station, a growing trend that is likely to increase in popularity.

There will come a day soon, however, when EV penetration will be sufficient in some regions to make pay-as-you-go EV charging services profitable.  Gas prices will likely continue to rise (gasoline in the United States  is up $0.16 from last year at this time, according to AAA) and EV charging service providers will have more flexibility in pricing, since electricity as a fuel will increasingly be a better deal ‑ making profitability easier to attain.

 

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