Navigant Research Blog

Automakers Turn to OSs to Add Revenue

— April 8, 2015

Automakers looking to continue their revenue growth are challenged by the diminishing prospects for post-sale revenue from replacement parts. Conventional cars are becoming increasingly reliable and electric vehicles (EVs) need little servicing due to their reliance on electronic rather than mechanical components.

Meanwhile, connected vehicle technologies are enabling automakers to remotely deliver software for entertainment, safety, and performance upgrades. Central to this new revenue stream are vehicle operating systems (OSs) that can receive content from automakers or stream it from mobile phones.

Google’s Android Auto and Apple’s CarPlay software platforms are starting to take over, according to auto executives who spoke on a panel during the recent South by Southwest conference.

A Flat World

“Android and CarPlay have made a flat world” for app developers looking for space inside vehicles, said Nick Sugimoto, senior program director at Honda. Google’s Play Store, a popular service for downloading music, videos, and games, currently is not being used for sales within cars today, added Sugimoto, but Honda is working with the company to define an automotive platform.

Jenny Kim of Hyundai Ventures said that while her company also supports Android and CarPlay, Hyundai has its own offerings for music and mirroring mobile phone applications. Its Blue Link is used to connect to the car to the home and networked home devices. Hyundai subsidiary SoundHound, which provides the platform for the Hyundai Sonata, announced that it can also identify the music being played on wearable devices.

Moving control of popular applications from the mobile phone to the dashboard enhances safety, according to Sugimoto. Instead of looking at the phone on your lap, drivers can be looking forward at the display, he said.

Beyond Honda and Hyundai, Android and CarPlay are becoming the default automotive OS on many other models, such as the recently announced Volkswagen Passat Alltrack that supports both platforms. Conversely, Ford has switched to BlackBerry’s QNX OS for its in-vehicle platform.

In the Air Tonight

Connected vehicle technology is being leveraged most in EVs, which include wireless connectivity so that drivers can monitor the state of the battery charge, find charging stations, and perform other functions. Tesla Motors has been the most aggressive in over-the-air upgrades to vehicles to boost performance or enhance safety remotely rather than having to recall vehicles to be serviced. Tesla recently issued a remote upgrade for the Model S that will alert drivers if they stray out of range of one of the company’s Supercharger stations when driving on a low battery.

“There’s no question, over the air is coming” as a mechanism for issuing fixes and adding new features, said Hyundai’s Kim. Over-the-air distribution costs less and allows automakers to keep up with the advances in software outside of their normal 5-year or more development cycle.

For details on the varied initiatives that car companies are exploring to boost revenue, see Navigant Research’s report, Alternative Revenue Streams for Automakers.

 

Storage Helps Ease Schools’ Demand Charge Pain

— April 7, 2015

For many businesses, demand charges are like room service delivery charges for travelers, only more painful. Utilities levy demand charges on customers for short duration peak power usage during a month, which can add between 15%–50% to the cost of a utility bill for the entire month. In some cases, this can mean hundreds or thousands of dollars for a few minutes of excessive power use.

Utilities justify these substantial fees because high consumption of power at peak times can strain transmission and distribution assets or cause them to invoke their most costly generation equipment.

No Money Down

In power-constrained California, where demand charges run high, five school districts have turned to batteries to save money by reducing or avoiding demand charges. Energy storage solutions provider Green Charge Networks (GCN) developed energy storage systems using battery packs from Samsung SDI for Mountain View-Los Altos Union High School District, Oak Park Unified School District, Butte Community College, Peralta Community College District, and California State University, Fullerton.

GCN’s CEO Vic Shao told me that because of the high demand charges (Shao says San Diego Gas and Electric charges $45 per kilowatt), his company can provide the systems for free to the schools. The company can recoup its investment quickly by receiving a share of the savings that the schools receive from avoiding demand charges. For perpetually cash-strapped schools, a no-money-down solution for cutting energy costs can be compelling.

Solar Fee

Since the partnering schools are focused on reducing emissions, GCN also threw in free Level 2 electric vehicle (EV) chargers to incentivize employees and the districts to buy EVs. Shao said that thanks in part to California’s incentive program for storage and other clean energy technologies, the company has done more business aimed at combatting demand charges in the last 2 months than in the previous 3 years. New York City is another attractive market for storage systems, according to Shao.

Similarly, demand for energy storage systems in Arizona could be on the rise thanks to a controversial new demand charge being levied exclusively on solar customers by the Salt River Project utility.

GCN is one of several vendors, along with Stem and CODA Energy, offering storage products aimed at demand charge mitigation, as described in Navigant Research’s report, Community, Residential, and Commercial Energy Storage.

 

Differing Diesel Views Sow Auto Industry Confusion

— February 17, 2015

During January’s North American International Auto Show (NAIAS), several manufacturers announced new diesel models to help them meet increasingly stringent fuel economy standards. Nissan unveiled a second-generation Titan XD that straddles the line between light and heavy duty pickups. Nissan will initially build the Titan XD, scheduled to launch this fall, with only a diesel engine; gas trucks with V6 and V8 engines will come later.

GM will be introducing a diesel engine in its Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon later this year that could potentially increase fuel economy from the current 27 mpg to 30 mpg. Fiat Chrysler announced it will be increasing production of the Dodge Ram 1500 EcoDiesel pickup from 10% of models to 20%.

In the world of diesel cars, Volkswagen will unveil the Golf Gran Turismo Diesel (GTD) car at the upcoming Geneva Motor Show in March. Later this year, Suzuki will add an automatic transmission and several other updates to its SX4 S-Cross.

A Particular Problem

Diesel cars and trucks usually attain higher fuel economy ratings than their gasoline counterparts. According to Navigant Research’s report, Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies, the share of diesel cars and light trucks in North America is expected to increase from 1% in 2015 to 2.8% in 2025 as automakers continue to introduce more fuel-efficient models.

However, across the Atlantic, cities are looking to decrease the number of diesel vehicles driving in urban areas due to concerns that diesel vehicles’ higher levels of particulate emissions are causing environmental and health problems.

Not in My Town

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo has designs on eliminating diesel vehicles from her city by 2020. Mayor Hidalgo recently announced a ban on some diesel delivery trucks and buses, beginning by July 2015. According to Paris24.com, Hidalgo will provide significant financial incentives for investing in less polluting vehicles. London Mayor Boris Johnson has similar concerns around particulate emissions and is doubling the congestion charges for driving diesel vehicles in the city center to £20.

One solution to reduce the amount of diesel emissions is to add a hybrid drivetrain to a diesel vehicle. Hybrid vehicles reduce the use of the diesel engine by relying on battery power during low speeds and when idling, thus reducing particulate emissions. According to Navigant Research’s report, Electric Drive Trucks and Buses, the currently small market for medium and heavy duty diesel hybrid trucks will grow by a 2014–2023 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5% to nearly 95,000 units worldwide by 2023.

 

2018: When EVs Will Change Everything

— February 11, 2015

Disruptive technologies don’t appear overnight. They come in gradual iterations until refinements and related technologies evolve to a point when they become so overwhelmingly useful that they are viewed as a necessary replacement for what came before.

While plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) have come a long way since their introduction in the 1990s, they are not viewed by the general public as must-haves today, due to their higher prices and driving range limitations.  However, the next generation of PEVs, due to arrive in 3 years, will likely have a combination of features and prices that will convince most car buyers that driving a car with an internal combustion engine is a habit worth breaking.

Compare the development of PEVs to that of the smartphone. GM’s EV1 was the first significant PEV available in the 1990s, and its limitations in driving range and overall comfort prevented it and other PEVs of that era from catching on with consumers.

The evolution of smartphones can also be traced back to the early 1990s, when handheld personal digital assistants included an operating system with personal productivity features, and the first mobile phones that enabled talking (almost) anywhere became available. While these innovations quickly became popular with geeks and aficionados, they didn’t exactly capture a mass market.

10 Years After

Flash forward to 2009, and along came the Nissan LEAF and Chevrolet Volt, which took advantage of advances in battery technology, electric drive, display screens, navigation, and faster wireless communications to provide a driving experience that in most respects is superior to your father’s gas car. Most people have at least heard of a PEV by now, though PEV sales in the United States in 2014 were still less than 1% of all new light duty vehicles.

It similarly took more than a decade for personal digital assistants and mobile phones to converge, and for the then rudimentary technologies to be enhanced with better display screens and wireless connectivity, and new applications including texting, navigation, data sharing, and voice commands. For smart phones, the Blackberry, Windows smart phones, and then the iPhone became must-have devices that initially came with a high premium, but within a few years other manufacturers prompted competition that put this combination of features within reach of most consumers.

Tipping Point

That hasn’t happened yet with PEVs. But by 2018 we’ll have the Tesla Model 3 and the Chevrolet Bolt, which will package new technologies and driving enhancements to further separate PEVs from the pack. Anticipation for the Model 3’s extended range and Model S-like performance has been building since it was first announced, in 2013. The Chevrolet Bolt concept, which was announced at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in January 2015, promises similar or better range for a lower price.

GM has said that owners will be able to start the Bolt with a smartphone application, and that ride-sharing and self-parking features will be included with the vehicles. Some of these features may be available in conventional cars by that time, but with the Bolt (and likely other PEVs), you’ll get them all under one roof for around $30,000, along with  superior electric drive performance and the savings and convenience of driving on electricity.

As with Apple and Samsung in the mobile device sector, Tesla and GM aspire to be the agents of change, and for now we can only guess at the electric alternatives that Nissan, Ford, Volkswagen/Audi, BMW, and Daimler will have at dealerships in 2018. Like smartphones, PEVs have certainly had their shares of missteps in their march toward ubiquity, but as Albert Einstein said, “Failure is success in progress.”

 

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