Navigant Research Blog

European Powerhouses Invest in EV Assets

— December 21, 2017

The days of the internal combustion engine in Europe appear to be numbered, as the governments of the UK, Germany, and Norway all plan to end petrol and diesel car sales in the coming decades. The newly empowered replacement market of plug-in EVs (PEVs) continues to rapidly grow, and a trifecta of industries (energy, fuels, and automakers) is jockeying for position in powering PEVs.

Electrifying Partnerships

Fuel company Shell gobbled up EV charging company NewMotion earlier in 2017, and it announced a partnership with Daimler, BMW, Ford, and Volkswagen in November 2017 to install the group’s Ionity EV chargers at Shell locations across Europe. In September 2017, NewMotion signed a deal to provide access to its network of EV chargers to the customers of France’s Total. Competing oil major BP has been in talks with automakers to offer EV charging at its fuel station in Europe, according to Reuters.

Tie-ups between fueling station operators and PEV makers and charging companies make sense since the number of cars in need of petrol will only shrink in future years, so both are looking to provide similar services to PEV drivers rather than concede market share. Ultra-fast charging, at 300 kW or greater, makes sense at these locations since many PEVs will be able to get an 80% (or greater) charge in 15 minutes or less, during which customers can buy snacks, grab fast food, or take a bio break. (I presented on this topic to at the recent NACS Fuels Summit Latin America in Buenos Aires, Argentina.)

Power to the PEVs

European utilities rightly see PEVs as the greatest opportunity to increase load, and the somewhat flexible nature of EV charging allows for managed charging to balance the natural peaks and valleys in electricity supply and demand. Germany’s RWE was in early on EV charging and sells charging infrastructure and other EV-related services through its spinoff company Innogy. Also based in Germany, E.ON is deploying a fast charging corridor from Norway down to Italy in partnership with e-mobility service provider CLEVER. Global sales of direct current (DC) fast chargers are expected to reach 70,000 units annually by 2026, according to Navigant Research’s newest report on DC fast charging.

French energy company ENGIE has also been active, acquiring charging infrastructure company EV-Box in March as well as investing in e-scooter company Gogoro in September 2017. E-bikes, e-scooters, and e-motorcycles need to replenish energy as well, and we’ll likely see more companies offer more than light duty vehicle charging services.

Italy’s Enel reached across the Atlantic to acquire eMotorwerks, an EV charging services company that is also working on vehicle-to-grid integration services. In the UK, a consortium including energy companies National Grid, British Gas, ScottishPower, and ESB is researching the potential for integrating PEVs into operations across the UK.

Down the Road

The EV charging market remains highly fragmented with many small players. Utilities and energy companies have recognized that the stakes (and revenue potential) are much higher with ultra-fast charging and the rapid expansion of PEV models for sale. Making a profit by marking up electrons has proved challenging for startup companies. Energy companies with distribution networks and utilities that understand high power delivery believe they are well-positioned to manage power delivery through EV charging assets. Combining EV charging with other home energy management services is a desired business model for automakers, generation, and distribution companies alike. They will, however, face competition from the US’ largest EV charging network—ChargePoint—which has been fundraising to expand its European operations and has received investment from Siemens, Daimler, BMW, and others.

 

Integration of EVs Becoming a Priority for Utilities

— September 26, 2017

Utilities are rapidly coming off the sidelines and tackling the opportunity to integrate EVs head on. Sales of plug-in EVs (PEVs) in the United States have reached nearly 120,000 units so far in 2017, up 28% from the same period last year, according to HybridCars.com. Utilities are more actively planning to accommodate the growing numbers of cars plugging in at residences, workplaces, and in public spaces. Utilities also are working toward using the largely controllable load to balance renewable generation assets.

PacifiCorp Making Moves

In Oregon, PacifiCorp reached an agreement with the Oregon Public Utility Commission (Oregon PUC) and other stakeholders to invest $2 million in EV charging infrastructure that will include the “incorporation of emerging technologies, such as renewable generation, energy storage or direct load control.” PacifiCorp joins fellow Oregon utilities Portland General Electric and Avista in piloting EV charging investment in order to better serve EV drivers and provide more flexibility in managing the grid.

Developments in Ohio and California Enable Integration

In Ohio, AEP and a group of stakeholders reached an agreement to provide rebates of up to 100% for installing charging stations. The $9.5 million deal will include both Level 2 and DC fast charging stations, including a provision to spend 10% in low income communities. Pending approval, the spending plan would be implemented as part of the Smart Columbus electrification program that will coordinate with power provider AEP Ohio’s efforts to increase the amount of renewable generation.

In the PEV leading state of California, utilities and automakers are working to standardize and expand vehicle-to-grid integration. The Vehicle-Grid Integration Communications Protocol Working Group is developing recommendations for the California PUC in response to an earlier executive order that mandates that EV charging be integrated into grid operations. The working group is expected to complete its recommendations in October 2017.

Revenue Rises in Next 3 Years

By 2020, annual EV charging services revenue in the United States will reach $900 million, according to Navigant Research’s report Electric Vehicle Charging Impacts. By necessity, utilities will play a pivotal role in delivering and managing the power delivered to PEVs. Due to the flexibility in timing when vehicles are charged, and their benefits as mobile energy storage units, utilities increasingly view EV charging as integral to management of distributed energy resources (DER).

EV charging services company eMotorWerks is building products to integrate charging into grid operations The company, which according to ChargedEVs is working with Pacific Gas and Electric and Sonoma Clean Power to intelligently manage its EV charging units, has reduced the price of its smart charging stations by $50.

Learn about PEV Integration

A great place to learn about how PEVs are being integrated into grid operations is the EVs & The Grid Summit, which will be held October 17-19 in San Francisco. The event will feature panels focused on the impacts of fast charging and utility EV rate programs, and I will be moderating a panel on regulatory programs from across the United States.

 

Cities Taking Steps to Charge Up EV Sales

— June 9, 2017

Urban areas with air quality concerns are promoting the use of plug-in EVs (PEVs) as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. By investing in EV charging infrastructure, cities such as New York City, Seattle, and Boulder are hoping to allay residents’ fears of not having a place to recharge their vehicles.

New York City is emphasizing fully emissions-free driving by installing charging stations that get their energy from the sun. The city recently ordered more than 30 solar-powered charging stations from Envision Solar, the manufacturer of EV ARC units that fit within the footprint of a typical parking spot. The parking-constrained city is ordering the charging stations to provide power to New York City’s fleet of PEVs, which will likely grow by 1,000 vehicles in 2017.

Seattle to Add Light and Charge

The city of Seattle is leveraging its street light infrastructure for expanding EV charging. The city will install 100 of BMW’s innovative Light and Charge systems, which tap into the power of street lights. The Light and Charge system is part of BMW’s ReachNow mobility service that was initially piloted in Munich and is being brought to the United States for the first time.

The system will include both direct current (DC) fast chargers and Level 2 charging and will be placed at up to 20 locations, including the Woodland Park Zoo, where the first Light and Charge systems are now up and running. The smart street lighting Light and Charge technology also includes upgrades to more energy efficient LED lights, as well as sensors for monitoring the environment and a connection to the cloud for sharing data.

Big Charge in a Little City

The much smaller city of Boulder, Colorado is more than doubling its EV charging station capacity to 46 units in 2017. The city is using a $100,000 grant from the Regional Air Quality Council to upgrade its existing charging stations at recreational centers and other locations, as well as to add new stations.

Boulder is awash in Nissan LEAFs thanks to the progressive actions at the Boulder Nissan dealership, which is one of Nissan’s largest sellers of PEVs despite the city’s smaller population (about 100,000). The city is helping to educate residents about the economics and operational benefits of owning a PEV through the EnergySmart program. The unique EV advising service provides an advisor to talk residents through understanding the ins and outs of tax rebates, accessing charging infrastructure, and integrating EVs with home solar charging.

PEVs Charging Ahead

As seen in the chart generated by Navigant Research’s new Electric Vehicle Forecasts data service, the efforts that these cities are taking today will pay off in coming years and contribute to greater sales of PEVs. Annual sales of PEVs in Boulder, New York City, and Seattle are expected to grow by more than 800% to nearly 148,000 units between 2016 and 2025, according to Navigant Research.

Total Sales by Powertrain, Scenario, and Year: 2016-2025

(Source: Navigant Research)

Speakers from all three of these cities (myself included) will be discussing EVs and urban mobility solutions at the upcoming EVRoadmap Conference in Portland, Oregon. The annual event, which will be held June 19-21, has become the most important EV conference in the United States. EVRoadmap will feature speakers from across the globe and program tracks on cars, charging, and community.

 

Diversity of EVs to Power Sales Growth

— May 23, 2017

Plug-in EV (PEV) sales have climbed by more than one-third thus far in 2017, and the plethora of new models coming out will continue to drive sales even higher during the next decade. Despite gasoline selling for less than $2.50 per gallon in much of the United States, PEV sales increased by 39% during the first 4 months of the year, according to data from HybridCars.com.

PEVs have been available in only a limited number of segments and have appealed primarily to middle- to upper-income buyers, which has constrained sales volumes. However, by 2020, the number and variety of PEV models for sale will grow dramatically. As seen in the table below, more than 30 new or updated PEV models will be on offer within the next 4 years from both established and aspiring auto companies.

More battery EV (BEV) than plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV) models are expected, as improvements in battery technology are prompting automakers to push all-electric driving. PEV sales in the United States are expected to surpass 2.1 million annually by 2030, according to Navigant Research’s Transportation Forecast: Light Duty Vehicles report.

Announced PEV Models

(Source: Navigant Research)

A Range of Options: Hyundai, Kia, and Honda

While most auto manufacturers are focusing on increasing the driving range of their BEVs, Hyundai, Kia, and Honda this year instead announced cars that focus on value and efficiency.

Hyundai and Kia each announced a trio of models based on the new IONIQ platform: a hybrid, PHEV, and BEV. The Hyundai IONIQ BEV is estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to go 124 miles on a charge, which is superior to many of today’s BEVs—except for the Tesla Model S and X and Chevrolet Bolt. Comparable to the Ford Focus Electric and Nissan LEAF, Hyundai’s BEV is priced competitively (under $30,000) while offering greater range, but well below the Bolt and other upcoming 200-mile BEVs. Kia is using the same platform and propulsion systems with a taller crossover body style called the Niro, which will be slightly less efficient but may be better suited to the current market trends.

Hyundai challenged its engineers 11 years ago to produce the most fuel efficient hybrid vehicle available, and the design was used for the six new variants from the two brands. According to fueleconomy.gov, the IONIQ BEV is the most efficient of all vehicles, earning a 136 combined mpg equivalent rating. The car also won the greenest vehicle award from the ACEEE.

During an extended test drive earlier this year, the IONIQ was a pleasure to steer through turns and had quick acceleration and a comfortable interior. It is a very competitive offering. The company is developing a longer range BEV, but the added battery mass means it won’t be as energy efficient, according to Hyundai.

Honda’s upcoming Clarity EV is expected to travel around 80 miles on a single charge, which is well below the standard of 110 miles or more for current BEVs. The company has taken some heat for announcing a car that is “uncompetitive” from the start in both range and price, as it is expected to list for more than the LEAF or Fusion and near the price of the longer range Bolt.

EVS Conference

The international EV community will be gathering in October at the 30th EVS Conference in Stuttgart, Germany. Billed as the largest trade fair and conference event for electric mobility, EVS features manufacturers of EVs, charging infrastructure, and mobility software and solutions, as well as researchers presenting papers on the latest innovations. Navigant Research will be discussing the latest EV innovations during a presentation at the conference.

 

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