In our forthcoming report on aviation and marine biofuels, we forecast that global nameplate production capacity will reach 2.3% of global jet fuel demand. This is just shy of 2.5 billion gallons of installed production capacity, up from just under 750 million gallons in 2014. Depending on whom you speak to, this would be either a significant achievement or an abject disappointment.
For the optimists, surpassing a critical threshold of 1% is viewed as an important milestone in the emerging aviation biofuels market. Experience with the commercialization of new technologies demonstrates that 1% to 2.5% market penetration often represents a technology inflection point, leading to accelerated market acceptance and diffusion. Current nameplate production capacity for aviation biofuels stands at 1%, beating Boeing’s target to do so in 2015 by nearly 2 years.
For the pessimists, 2.3% in 2020 falls well short of aspirational industry targets. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has set a goal of meeting 6% of aviation fuel demand by sustainable aviation biofuels by 2020; Boeing’s primary competitor in the aircraft manufacturing business, Airbus, is targeting 5% by 2020.
Adding further fodder for the pessimists, actual bio-derived jet fuel (biojet) production at emerging advanced biorefineries will fall below nameplate capacity. Note that petroleum jet fuel – a high-performance kerosene-based product tailored for turbine engines – represents roughly 10% to 15% of the refined gallons produced from a barrel of crude oil. Based on forecasts, the actual production of biojet fuel in 2020 is likely to represent just 1% of total jet fuel consumption. ASTM certification of green diesel as a blend fuel with jet fuel would increase this share to just below 2%, still a ways off from achieving a technology diffusion threshold.
One of the primary obstacles impeding growth in the aviation biofuels market is feedstock availability. It’s a multifaceted problem with no single solution. While aspirational targets may prove lofty, based on recent developments, they may have accomplished their primary purpose: to stimulate industry investment, innovation, and development.
Two developments, in particular, show significant potential despite scant attention in the U.S. media.
From Prairies to Desert
Brassica carinata, or simply carinata, is an industrial oilseed mustard crop with two subtle characteristics: its oils produce long carbon chain molecules (C22) that can be tailored to match the carbon length (C9-C15) of petroleum-based jet fuels (picture a sawmill using whole logs rather than scrap timber); and it produces more fuel per acre on semiarid lands than any other oilseed in existence today. The result is better yields of finished fuel than soy or other conventional oilseed crops, a significant achievement for an industry aiming to reach a production threshold measured in the billions of gallons.
Agrisoma Biosciences, a Canadian-based crop company, currently has exclusive global rights to commercialize carinata. This effort is gaining traction in North America. Technology developed by Applied Research Associates (ARA) and Chevron Lummus Global is processing test batches of carinata into renewable fuels that are 100% replacements for petroleum based fuels. In 2012, Canada’s National Research Council (NRC) flew the world’s first 100% biojet civilian flight powered by carinata-derived fuel. While Popular Science magazine named the milestone one of the top 25 scientific events of 2012, the event was overshadowed by a surge of aviation biofuels tests and commercial flights logged that same year. More than 15 individual aviation biofuels initiatives took place that year, each relying on a fuel blend of no more than 50% biofuels.
Halfway around the world, a team of researchers in Abu Dhabi led by the Masdar Institute, Boeing, and Etihad Airways is studying the potential of halophytes, a salt-resistant desert crop that can be grown on marginal land. Scientists leading the effort plan to build an integrated aquaculture ecosystem in which waste seawater from a fish and shrimp farm will nourish halophyte crops, which in turn, act as a filter that cleans the water for discharge into mangrove swamps. The consortium recently announced that halophytes show even more promise than originally expected as a source of renewable fuel for jets.
Tags: Advanced Biofuels, Bioenergy, Clean Transportation, Policy & Regulation, Renewable Energy, Smart Energy Program
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