Navigant Research Blog

Car-Free in Colorado: Living with an E-Bike

— October 20, 2014

After years of vehicle ownership, I decided about 3 months ago it was time for a change of pace.  Literally.  Tired of the plethora of (and seemingly continually rising) costs associated with owning a vehicle (parking, maintenance, insurance, repairs, registration fees, gasoline, etc.), I sold my car and used part of the funds to purchase an E3 Vibe electric bicycle (e-bike)  for $1,500 from Currie Technologies.  An e-bike is a traditional pedal bicycle with a battery pack that stores electricity, an electric motor for propulsion, and a user control attached to the handle bars for modifying the level of electrical assistance.

(Source: Currie Technologies)

Living in Boulder, Colorado certainly makes this transition much easier than in most U.S. cities.  An excellent bicycling infrastructure, a local carshare program, and comprehensive transit system all contribute to an excellent environment for going car-less.

Cost Analysis

With an upfront cost of $1,500, the e-bike will pay for itself after one year of avoided car insurance and gasoline expenses.  My monthly gasoline and insurance charges were about $130 combined ($80 for insurance, $50 for gas), totaling $1,560 per year.  This is more than the brand new e-bike cost itself, without even delving into the additional avoided costs of vehicle registration fees, parking, maintenance, and repairs.  Just as an example of potential additional costs of owning a vehicle, it’s estimated that in Colorado, the average cost of a common car repair (parts & labor) was $348.17 in 2011.

What about the operating costs for e-bikes? While many organizations estimate the cost of fully charging an e-bike from $0.10 to $0.20, other conservative estimates project that it costs just under $0.25 to charge an average e-bike battery from empty to full.  For me, this would happen about twice a week, since I’m usually charging the battery from half to full power 4 times per week (a 6.3 mile commute round trip usually drains the battery to a little over half power).  Using the conservative estimate of $0.25 to fully recharge the battery, electricity for recharging my e-bike would run about $26 per year ($0.50 multiplied by 52 weeks).  This (wishfully) assumes no winter in Colorado.  With a more realistic projection of biking to work three-quarters of the year, this reduces the annual charging cost to under $20.

Electric Hum

When the weather isn’t suitable for biking to work, I take the bus with a complimentary bus pass from my employer.  However, since I do need access to a vehicle on occasion, I have become a member of Boulder’s carsharing program, eGo CarShare.  So far, I am averaging about $20/month in rental fees, amounting to $240 per year.

Overall, becoming an e-bike owner has not only provided significant financial relief, but has also been an incredibly enjoyable experience.  I bike more often and travel longer distances than I would typically go on a traditional bike.  In addition, I get to confuse other cyclists with the humming sound of a 250W electric motor.

 

Autonomous Vehicles Coming Sooner Than Predicted

— October 14, 2014

Recent developments in the automotive industry indicate that semi-autonomous vehicles may be coming to market sooner than previously expected.  In early September, General Motors announced that it will introduce a 2017 Cadillac model equipped with advanced driver assist technology – allowing drivers to travel at highway speeds without touching the steering wheel or pedals.  Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors, stated that the company plans to introduce self-driving technology in the next 3 years with the new Model 3 electric sedan (due for release in 2017).  Musk also gave some longer-term forecasts: “Full auto-pilot capability is going to happen, probably, in the 5- or 6-year time frame.”  Additionally, Audi became the first company to receive the newly established autonomous driving permit, issued by the state of California.  As discussed in earlier blogs by my colleague David Alexander, the United Kingdom, China, and South Korean company Hyundai have also been active in the autonomous vehicle space.

New Market Entrants

Israel-based technology company Mobileye has recently received considerable media attention and market interest for its advanced driver assistance technology.  The company went public on August 6, 2014 at $25.00 per share.  Since the IPO, Mobileye’s share price has more than doubled to $51.23 as of September 24.  The company’s products are integrated into vehicle models from global automakers, including BMW, Ford, General Motors, Honda, Nissan, and Volvo.  Mobileye also works with several Tier One suppliers, including Autoliv, Delphi, Continental, Magna Electronics, and TRW Automotive.

Too Big to Ignore

Growing interest in autonomous vehicles can be attributed to the fact that the benefits of the technology are simply too large and far-reaching for policymakers, investors, and analysts to ignore.  In the United States alone, 33,561 people died and about 2.36 million people were injured as a result of traffic accidents in 2012, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.  The majority of all auto accidents (75% to 90%) are caused by driver error, distraction, or impairment.  In theory, fully autonomous vehicle traffic would prevent nearly all of these driver-related accidents.  Self-driving vehicle technology also has the potential to drastically reduce CO2 emissions, traffic congestion, and the stress of driving.

Navigant Research expects the global market for fully autonomous vehicles to average about 4.6% of new vehicle sales in 2025, rising to 40% in 2030 and reaching nearly 75% by 2035.

 

E-Bikes Gear Up in North America

— August 20, 2014

While Tesla, Nissan, and BMW get most of the headlines around electric transportation, the electric bicycle (e-bike) market is quietly gaining momentum in North America.  E-bikes are simply traditional pedal bikes with a battery pack and electric motor for propulsion.  Usually a throttle or user control module is attached to the handlebars to allow the user to adjust the power levels of electric assistance.  E-bikes offer a unique market solution for the transportation problems many cities in North America currently face: traffic congestion, fatalities from road accidents, local air quality, climate change, and the economic burdens associated with car ownership.

While the e-bike market has historically been strongest in China and Western Europe, emerging trends have helped position the industry for increased growth in North America.  Combined throttle-control and pedal-assist models, electric cargo bikes, all-in-one retrofit kits and wheels, an aging baby boomer population, and the use of e-bikes in police patrol and various security industries have all contributed to a growing market with strong potential.

Battery Prices Fall

As is the case with the broader electric vehicle market, the increasing quality and affordability of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries is attracting new customers.  Most Li-ion e-bikes in North America range from $1,500 to $3,000.  While not as cheap as traditional bicycles, this is a relatively small upfront cost to adopt electric transportation.  If the plan is to reduce car trips or ditch your car altogether, your investment will be recouped within a few years of reduced trips to the pump and avoided insurance, parking, and vehicle maintenance costs.  Not to mention the health benefits that come with increased exercise and the avoidance of traffic jams.

Automakers Climb On

Several automotive manufacturers are joining the e-bike party.  In the United States, Ford recently partnered with Pedego Electric Bikes to design a throttle-controlled e-bike, the Ford Super Cruiser.  Daimler AG’s smart unit is one of the most aggressive automotive brands in e-bikes, partnering with GRACE GmbH to deliver an e-bike sold through dealers in Europe.  BMW recently released its pedal-assist Cruise e-bike 2014, which features a Bosch 250 W motor and 400 Wh battery.  Audi, Opel, and Volkswagen have also shown e-bike concepts, though these vehicles have not yet been announced for production.

Navigant Research’s upcoming report on e-bikes, scheduled for publication in the third quarter of 2014, will contain a detailed analysis of global market opportunities, barriers, and technology issues, along with market forecasts for e-bikes, e-bike batteries, and overall sales revenue by region.

 

Buy a Car, Get a Solar Array

— July 29, 2014

BMW Canada is betting that electric vehicle (EV) drivers want to further reduce their carbon footprint by going solar.  The company’s new electric i3 comes with an added purchase incentive for Canadians: a 10% discount on a home solar system (only available in Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia).  BMW partnered with Toronto-based PURE Energies, which will provide the solar home evaluations, panel installation, and relevant paperwork.

BMW Canada’s e-Mobility Specialist, Blair Dinsdale, stated in a press release that the solar energy offer “was designed to cover the exact amount of power you would use in the car, based on sun access in Canada.”  According to PURE Energies, a 6 kW system (24 panels) in Canada produces roughly 7,000 kWh of electricity per year.  The BMW i3 gets an estimated 100 miles of range per 27 kWh of electricity, as per the U.S. Department of Energy.  Thus, with a 6 kW solar system, a homeowner could drive the i3 nearly 26,000 miles per year exclusively on home-produced solar energy.

A Literal Sunroof

A February 2014 survey conducted by the Center for Sustainable Energy in California found that 32% of EV owners in the western United States already have solar panels on their homes.  While parts of Canada do not enjoy abundant sunshine, the province of Ontario does offer a feed-in tariff program to help offset the lack of year-round solar energy.

Although combining solar with EVs is not new, the move by BMW to offer direct discounts on a home solar system is a first for the industry, and a smart one.  According to Navigant Research’s 2013 Energy & Environment Consumer Survey, 79% of Americans have an overall positive impression of solar energy and 61% share the same impressions for EVs.  While not all consumers of EVs purchase the vehicle for environmental reasons, the ones who do place great importance on where the electricity to power the car comes from.  And, as you’d expect, EV owners align very closely with solar buyers from a demographic perspective.

Combining solar with EVs makes so much sense that several automakers are now showing prototype EVs with solar panels directly integrated onto the roof of the vehicle.  The Ford C-Max Solar Energi and the Sunswift eVe have built-in rooftop panels.  If BMW’s approach proves successful, we could see Tesla and SolarCity creating similar offers in the future.  For more information on solar and EV synergy, check out Navigant Research’s research brief, Solar and Electric Vehicle Cross-Marketing Strategies.

 

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