Navigant Research Blog

A Few Steps Closer to Autonomous Vehicles

— September 30, 2014

As engineers, scientists, executives, and government officials involved with transportation systems gather in Detroit this week for the annual ITS World Congress, the auto industry took another incremental step along the 60-plus-year road to autonomous vehicles.

In her keynote address, General Motors (GM) CEO Mary Barra announced that two of the technologies that are building blocks toward a driverless future will come to market in 2016.  The 2017 Cadillac CTS will be the first production car from GM equipped with vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications technology.  Barra did not provide any details about exactly what sort of information would be exchanged between cars equipped with the technology, but messages will likely include alerts about brake applications, slippery road conditions, and position and speed as the vehicle approaches an intersection.

GM is the first automaker to announce that it will equip a production vehicle with V2V technology, but it’s likely that other premium brands will soon follow suit, especially now that the U.S. Department of Transportation has begun the process of writing rules to mandate the technology in the coming years.

Beyond Cruise Control

Barra also announced that a new Cadillac model that has yet to be revealed will be the first car in its lineup equipped with super cruise technology.  Super cruise is a semi-autonomous highway driving mode that combines advanced radar-based adaptive cruise control with upgraded camera-based lane-following capability.  In traffic, the system is able to bring the car to a full stop, automatically restarting as soon as the leading car moves.  GM first demonstrated super cruise to media in 2012 and has continued to refine the system.

In the days before the official opening of the ITS World Congress, Toyota held a separate advanced safety systems seminar where it demonstrated a system very similar to super cruise installed in the Lexus GS 450h.  The system also includes the capability to determine which lane the car is in to provide the driver with alerts for potential hazards, such as traffic merging from the left or exit-only lanes.  GPS doesn’t provide enough precision to determine which lane a vehicle is in, and Toyota engineers declined to provide specifics, but the system almost certainly uses the new higher-fidelity camera that is installed as part of the lane-tracking system.

Driver Still Required

Toyota also announced that this system would be coming to market very soon, but would not be as specific as GM.  During the technology demonstrations at the congress, Honda also demonstrated its own automated highway driving system, although it has not yet announced when the system will reach production.

The key to these systems is that they do not completely replace the driver, but simply reduce the workload during some of the more monotonous aspects of highway driving.  Unlike Google, which is extremely bullish on autonomous vehicles, traditional automakers, which are more familiar with the realities of putting high-technology cars in customers’ hands, are taking a much more cautious approach.

 

Toyota Commits to Active Safety Features

— September 18, 2014

If the world’s largest automaker gets its way, by the end of this decade, we can expect advanced active safety and semi-automated driving features to become as familiar as anti-lock brakes and stability control have in the past 10 years.

During an advanced safety systems seminar near Toyota’s North American technical center in Ann Arbor, Michigan, the automaker challenged its competitors when it committed to offering advanced active safety systems across its lineup by 2017.  Toyota also increased its commitment to advanced safety R&D by extending the initial 5-year mandate of the Collaborative Safety Research Center (CSRC) from 2016 through 2021 and adding $35 million in new funding.

At the same event, Simon Nagata, senior vice president of the Toyota Technical Center, announced an expansion of the scope of the CSRC, which was launched by company president Akio Toyoda in 2011.  Nagata described the program as unique in the industry because “all findings are openly shared in order to benefit people everywhere.”

CSRC research initially focused on three areas: driver distraction, active safety, and helping to protect the most vulnerable traffic populations, including children, teens, and seniors. Automated and connected vehicle technologies are now part of the CSRC scope of work. To date, CSRC has initiated or completed 34 projects with 17 universities and research hospitals.

Join the Crowd

Ford has drawn attention in recent years for offering a full suite of driver assist capabilities, including active park assist, blind spot information, lane departure warning and prevention, and adaptive cruise control on the high-volume Fusion midsize sedan.  Some of these features are even available on the smaller Focus and Escape.  Other manufacturers, including Nissan, Honda, and even Hyundai, have since added some of these features to mainstream products.  Toyota, on the other hand, has largely restricted these technologies to its premium Lexus brand.

“Many of these capabilities will be added to Toyota brand vehicles starting in 2015 and with the goal of becoming the first full-line manufacturer to offer these technologies across the entire lineup by 2017,” said Bill Fay, Toyota group vice president and general manager.  Fay didn’t provide details about exactly which vehicles will get what features.  However, the updated 2015 Camry sedan, announced in April at the New York Auto Show, will offer radar-based adaptive cruise control, blind spot monitoring, cross traffic alert, lane departure alert, and a pre-collision system.

Toyota’s increased emphasis on active safety and automated driving is likely to inspire both the competition and regulators who may well see this as an opportunity to begin mandating the technologies that are building blocks for autonomous vehicles, just as they did previously with stability control and rear cameras.  And it will provoke a wider discussion of how we incorporate automated vehicles into the transportation ecosystem.

 

Time for Automakers to Get Real on Vehicle Security

— August 21, 2014

Recently, the annual Black Hat and DefCon computer security conferences took place in Las Vegas, and this week the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) announced a notice of proposed rulemaking regarding vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communications.  Hacking cars was once again one of the hot topics at the two security conferences this year, in part because automakers don’t appear to have done much to improve the security of the vehicles we drive.  Each year researchers announce some newly discovered vulnerability that gets blown out of proportion by the mainstream media.

Fortunately for drivers everywhere, none of the issues discovered so far have actually amounted to anything worthy of concern.  However, as vehicles continue to get increasingly advanced in the coming years, the potential for attackable flaws will only increase.  Automakers are notoriously quiet when it comes to publicly discussing anything that might potentially be deemed a flaw in any of their products, but it’s time to change that attitude when it comes to electronic security.

Calling All Cars

Over the past half-decade, advanced driver assist systems such as adaptive cruise control, automatic parking systems, and lane departure warning and prevention have rapidly migrated down-market from expensive European luxury models to mainstream, high-volume family cars, such as the Toyota Camry and Ford Fusion.  With the addition of just a few extra sensors and a lot more software, these are the building blocks for tomorrow’s fully autonomous vehicles.

One other piece of that puzzle is the V2V communications that the NHTSA would like to mandate.  Along with vehicle-to-infrastructure  communications, cars will be able to send and receive messages that can influence the behavior of the vehicle.  Initially, the plan is to send these alerts only to drivers.  However, it’s only a matter of time before that expands to include autonomous vehicle capabilities like automatic braking or steering to avoid a collision.

Anyone who’s ever worked on software will acknowledge that it’s virtually impossible to write absolutely perfect and bug-free code, and the task gets exponentially more difficult as systems get more complex.  Automakers often like to brag about how many millions of lines of code are in the latest and greatest new vehicle and how many gigabytes of data are processed every second.  They neglect to mention how every additional byte of code means more potential for mistakes or security flaws.

No Such Thing as Bug-Free

Companies with vast software engineering expertise, including Google, Facebook, and Microsoft, have acknowledged that they cannot possibly find every potential issue in their products.  The impact of a Facebook or Google breach can be annoying, and potentially expensive, but not life threatening.

It’s time for automakers to follow suit and acknowledge that despite their best efforts to secure vehicles, the potential does indeed exist for security vulnerabilities.  Tesla Motors started on the right track this year with the hiring of security expert Kristin Paget away from Apple.  The company also sent a team of recruiters to the Black Hat and DefCon conferences to find more talent.

Each automaker should also set up a bounty program similar to those established by the big tech firms, which pay researchers cash rewards for disclosing security vulnerabilities to the companies.  The corporate lawyers might not be crazy about the idea, but with the recent flood of vehicle recalls from General Motors and other manufacturers, the increased focus on safety and quality might actually make this an ideal time to do this.

 

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