This spring Daimler will introduce the third generation of its smart fortwo electric drive (ED) vehicle to the North American consumer market.  Technically, the electric version of the vehicle has already made landfall through Daimler’s carshare program car2go in San Diego and Portland; however, this year’s introduction is especially important, as the vehicle will be the lowest priced battery electric vehicle (BEV) on the market at $25,000 MSRP.

The vehicle entered mass production in June of last year, and sales to various European markets have begun over the last few months.  In Europe the automaker offers an optional on-board 22 kW charger for its 17.6 kWh battery, which can charge the battery from a high capacity AC power supply in around an hour.  This gives the ED the potential to charge from AC power at a rate 3 times faster than all other BEVs.  Daimler has yet to announce whether the 22 kW onboard charger will be an option in North America, but it probably won’t since the standard outlet in North America can supply far less power than outlets in Europe.

The onboard charger capacity determines the amount of time it takes to recharge a vehicle’s battery.  The first generation Nissan LEAF used a 3.3 kW onboard charger, but 2013 versions are being outfitted with 6.6 kW chargers.  This upgrade allows the LEAF to be charged twice as fast when using Level 2 charging equipment.  High capacity chargers generally require a lot of space and therefore most BEVs have a max capacity charger of 6.6 kW.  Daimler’s integration of a 22 kW onboard charger is a leap forward.

Low Power Solution

However, in order for individual and fleet EV owners to use the higher capacity onboard chargers they must first install the infrastructure capable of delivering such a charge.  This is much easier in Europe, where the standard electrical outlet is 230V, whereas outlets in the United States and Canada are 120V.  The difference means that (depending on amperage) standard outlets in Europe can theoretically deliver around 19 kW whereas standard North American outlets max at 1.8 kW.  In North America, 230V outlets are usually for high power appliances like washers and dryers, but they can also be installed with the addition of a circuit from the electrical panel to the outlet.

Installing the necessary infrastructure to deliver such a high power charge is not necessarily expensive in comparison to the purchase price of the BEV; however, the cost may be unnecessary as charging at lower power capacities is proving sufficient for many early BEV adopters.  A survey of 3,703 fleet EVs administered by Fleetcarma measured vehicle rest times and states of charge (SOC) at the end of the day.  The survey found that charging at 1.3 kW could meet the needs of 88% of the average fleet BEV.   The 22 kW onboard charger would be an intriguing option for the North American market, but its incremental costs will make it of interest to only a few early adopters.  Like the 35-hour work week and real Champagne, it will likely remain a European luxury.

The start of 2013 has given autonomous and connected vehicle technologies a big boost.  In early January German automotive component manufacturer Continental AG, along with luxury car maker Audi, was granted testing licenses for autonomous vehicles in Nevada alongside Google (which has had a license since 2012).  Additionally, both Audi and Lexus debuted autonomous vehicle systems at the 2013 Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show (CES).  Similar technologies have also been unveiled by Nissan, which in late 2012 showed off the all-electric LEAF parking itself.  Connected vehicles also made a splash as Ford and Volvo showcased their cloud-connected vehicle solutions at CES.

The Lexus and Audi vehicles are outfitted with a number of systems that can track and react to changing traffic and infrastructure conditions as they emerge in real time, without driver input.  These systems claim to make driving safer (Google’s fleet surpassed 300,000 miles with no crashes in late 2012), and they’re enhanced by connectivity software, trumpeted by Ford and Volvo, that enable vehicles to use navigation and traffic information from sources like Google maps.  Further development will allow communications between vehicles (V2V) and infrastructure (V2X) to alert vehicles to changing traffic conditions in real time.

When autonomous and connectivity systems become widely adopted, they’ll make travel not only safer but faster, as stop and go traffic is reduced through fewer accidents, thanks to systems that automatically direct cars to remain safe distances behind other vehicles.  Additionally, V2X technologies can enable governing transportation authorities to better manage traffic management systems, particularly at busy intersections.  Theoretically, V2X could also be used to administer a vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax, which is being explored in some U.S. cities.

While fully autonomous vehicles exist in test programs and pilots, sales to consumers are unlikely before 2020.  Though full autonomy is far off, smaller semi-autonomous systems branded as “driver-assist” systems, as well as cloud-connected vehicles, are beginning to emerge in greater numbers; this is exciting growing interest from governing authorities.

The benefits of these systems in terms of driver safety and traffic management are clear, but their adoption also confronts the idea that a motorist’s car is her castle.  The privacy concerns common to Facebook and Google, surrounding use of personal information and Internet search histories for targeted advertising algorithms, will confront the automotive industry.  Once everyone’s car is connected to the cloud, information regarding driving habits and destinations will also be available to companies and governments, at least on an opt-in basis.  These technologies present an exciting and efficient future, but their optimal use requires the adoption of a paradigm whereby mobility is no longer private but public.

After 6 straight months of increasing sales numbers and being the top selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) in the United States, the Chevy Volt was finally knocked off its pedestal in November by the Toyota Prius Plug-in and the Nissan LEAF.  The Volt has dominated monthly PEV sales tallies through the last half year; but, the expiration of multiple discount deals for lease and sales promotions in November effectively cut Volt sales in half from the previous month.  Additionally, November was the first full month of sales for the Ford C-MAX Energi, another plug-in hybrid (PHEV) with a 20-mile all electric range.

While the sudden plunge in Volt sales is not a welcome sign for a robust PEV market, other developments signal the emergence of a strong PHEV market from the beleaguered market for battery electric vehicles (BEV).

Cumulative EV Sales, United States: December 2010 to November 2012

(Source: Pike Research)

The current PHEV market comprises the hatchback Volt, Prius Plug-in, and C-MAX, as well as the high-end sports car, Fisker Karma.  Next year will bring four new models in two new vehicle classes: two four door sedans, the Honda Accord and Ford Fusion; the first PHEV SUV for the mass market, the Mitsubishi Outlander; and another high end sports car, the Cadillac ELR.  In Europe, the Opel/Vauxhall Ampera (the Volt’s European version) has done particularly well with fleets, and Volvo sold out of its first production run of the first diesel PHEV, the V-60, before it even hit showrooms.

Numerically, BEVs have the advantage as there are eight models currently available in the United States.  Geographically, however, only three are available to markets outside of California; the Nissan LEAF, the Mitsubishi i-MiEV, and the Tesla Model S.  The rest are available either as “for demand only” or to meet California ZEV mandates.

Three new major BEVs are expected to become available in 2013: the Fiat 500e, the Chevy e-Spark, and the Smart ForTwo ED, with the Tesla Model X expected to follow in 2014.  The Fiat 500e and Chevy e-Spark will join the ranks of California-compliant cars.  The Smart ForTwo, which will be the lowest cost OEM-produced BEV, and the Tesla Model X will be marketed at large.  While the number of models will increase, some smaller BEV brands may not last through the winter.

Despite BEVs’ numerical advantage, they have only accounted for roughly 24% of the 2012 U.S. PEV market to date, a significant drop from the 56.4% market share they held at the end of 2011.  Sales of BEVs did jump significantly in November, thanks to estimated increases in Model S deliveries and the LEAF’s third highest month of sales.  However, additional PHEVs outside the class of hatchbacks and high-end sports cars will significantly alter the PEV dynamic toward PHEVs.  The rise of the PHEV market will also have a significant impact on the electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) industry, as PHEVs are not compatible with DC fast chargers and there are significant differences between charging behaviors of PHEV and BEV owners.

In November the U.S.  Senate voted 62-37 to strike language from the annual defense appropriations bill that would have prohibited the Department of Defense (DOD) from buying alternative fuels if they cost more than conventional petroleum-based fuels.  Estimates of commercial aviation biofuel prices are around $5 to $7 a gallon, while conventional petroleum-based fuel is around $3 per gallon.  The DOD is the largest consumer of oil in the world and in recent years has been a leading advocate and investor in advanced biofuel development.  Had the restrictive language been permitted, it would have been a crippling blow to the domestic and international aviation biofuel industries, grounding their encouraging recent advances globally.

Unlike petroleum-based fuels, biofuels have many feedstocks that can originate from almost anywhere.  The costs of distributing a specific biofuel over a wide area, however, make any specific biofuel less competitive against petroleum-based competitors that have better price points and distribution networks.  Therefore, the standardization of one biofuel from one feedstock across the globe is unlikely.  Rather, many biofuels from varying feedstocks will emerge in regional markets.

Aviation biofuels add another variable in that the purpose of aviation is to travel to different regions of the world where departure point and destination may not have the same biofuel supply originating from the same feedstock.  The present issue, though, is finding the most sustainable feedstock at the most competitive price, something many are trying to do across the globe.  Below, a roundup of aviation biofuel initiatives in selected countries.

United States

In late May, United Airlines, Boeing, the Chicago Department of Aviation, the Clean Energy Trust, and Honeywell UOP created the Midwest Aviation Sustainable Biofuels Initiative (MASBI).  The Midwest offers the largest potential feedstock for biofuel development in the country.  The initiative is meant to evaluate challenges in biofuel development as well as potential Midwestern feedstocks.  A report on initial conclusions of varying feedstock viability is due later this month.

China

In late August, the Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China announced that it will collaborate with Boeing on refining waste cooking oil into jet fuel.  China produces 29 million tons of the waste oil while consuming 20 million tons of petroleum-based jet fuel annually.  Boeing claims price parity can be achieved within 10 years.  In addition, by 2020, the Chinese Civil Aviation Authority expects 30% of the country’s jet fuel consumption to be met by biofuels.

Brazil

The long-time leading producer and consumer of sugarcane-based biofuels for the automotive market, Brazil is now taking steps to enter the aviation market.  In mid-2011 Boeing announced a partnership with Brazilian aircraft manufacturer Embraer to assess potential jet biofuels.  In April 2012, Boeing expanded its depth in the region by establishing Boeing Research & Technology-Brazil.  The center will be an innovation hub for public organizations, private sector companies, and universities to collaborate on an assortment of aerospace technologies including biofuels.

Canada

The National Research Council of Canada flew the first civil jet on 100% unblended biofuel in early November.  The jet was powered by biofuel created from a genetically engineered Ethiopian mustard seed produced by Agrisoma.  The seed will now be grown on 6,000 western Canadian acres on behalf of 40 commercial farmers.

Other significant advances in aviation biofuels are occurring in 18 other countries using a variety of feedstocks, from Camelina in Spain to woody biomass in New Zealand.  Most of these developments are in their initial research phases, and any significant penetration of biofuel into the aviation fuel supply chain is still distant.  The future of aviation biofuels is not a sure thing; however, it is conceivable to consider that airplanes will eventually fly around the world using sugarcane grown in Brazil, Ethiopian mustard seed grown in Canada, or waste cooking oil produced in China.