Navigant Research Blog

Negawatt Leadership in the Pacific Northwest

— November 24, 2015

In the Northwest, one of the most important and influential energy stakeholders is the Northwest Power Conservation Council (NWPCC). The 1980 Northwest Power Act authorized Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington to develop a regional power plan and fish and wildlife program to balance the Northwest’s environment and energy needs. The heart of the NWPCC’s mission is to preserve the benefits of the Columbia River—which is home to more than 40% of total U.S. hydroelectricity—for future generations. The NWPCC develops a plan, updated every 5 years, to ensure the region’s power supply and to acquire cost-effective energy efficiency. The process relies on broad public participation to inform the plan and build consensus on its recommendations. While not statutorily obligated to comply directly with the plan, utilities generally follow its spirit, which is often in the public’s interest financially and is also a key enabler for utilities to meet their renewable portfolio targets.

Excerpts from the Plan

It is frequently pointed out that energy efficiency is almost always the lowest cost option for procuring new power, and the NWPCC upholds this with the release of each power plan. Take, for example, the following two excerpts from the most recently released Draft Seventh Power Plan. The first highlights exactly how cost-effective energy efficiency is in the Northwest and emphasizes why the region has flourishing energy efficiency solutions providers:

 “In more than 90 percent of future conditions, cost-effective efficiency met all electricity load growth through 2035. It’s not only the single largest contributor to meeting the region’s future electricity needs, it’s also the single largest source of new winter peaking capacity.”

The second excerpt illustrates the powerful combination of natural gas displacing coal and energy efficiency:

“A key question for the plan was how the region could lower power system carbon dioxide emissions and at what costs. The Council’s modeling found that without additional carbon control policies, carbon dioxide emissions from the Northwest power system are forecast to decrease from about 55 million metric tons in 2015 to around 34 million metric tons in 2035, the result of retiring the Centralia, Boardman, and North Valmy coal plants by 2026; using existing natural gas-fired generation to replace them; and developing about 4,500 average megawatts of energy efficiency by 2035, which should meet all forecast load growth over that time frame.”

The following chart is from the Draft Seventh Power Plan showing new resource development for Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana.

Seventh Power Plan Resource Portfolio

Dexter Blog(Source: Northwest Power & Conservation Council)

The 5-year plan is not a cure-all, and is not even technically enforceable, but it does highlight the unique attributes of the Pacific Northwest, not only from a natural resource perspective, but also from a cultural perspective. Though maybe not as flashy as its regional counterparts in California, the network of negawatt providers in the region (ranging from the NWPCC down to the actual implementers) have done a remarkable job at realizing the potential of energy efficiency today and at embedding these solutions into the future.


Can Energy Management Software be the Link for Customer Engagement and Compliance?

— November 24, 2015

Electric utilities and energy providers are preparing for a new energy reality—a transformation driven by climate change risks, rapid growth in distributed energy resources, and the proliferation of data across the energy value chain. Navigant Research has outlined this energy industry transformation as the development of the energy cloud. The evolution of how, when, and where we consume energy is not just a threat to utilities, but also an opportunity. Recent market developments suggest utilities are recognizing the value of energy management software for customer engagement that can direct consumption changes to meet their peak demand and efficiency goals. Navigant Research suggests the coming year will hold substantial growth in electric utility and energy provider investment of energy management software to drive greater customer engagement for energy efficiency savings and satisfaction.

Recent Developments

On November 3, Comverge announced a partnership with Apogee Interactive, Inc. Comverge stated that “When this solution is implemented in conjunction with Comverge’s number-one ranked demand response offerings, utilities can achieve unmatched cost-effectiveness by utilizing a single thermostat and engagement portal to drive both energy savings and peak reduction and can better engage customers by offering them increased control and visibility into their energy consumption.”

On November 13, GridPoint announced it has been acquired by TFC Utilities, a Washington, D.C.-based startup aiming to support regulated utilities in the process of modernizing strategy and procedures in light of industry transformation. The Company’s press release explained that “TFC Utilities’ business model is to transform regulated utilities with a commercial and regulatory construct that drives mass adoption of clean, low cost energy producing and energy saving technologies. The GridPoint acquisition represents TFC Utilities’ commitment to behind the meter technologies that directly benefit customers while also modernizing and enhancing the efficiency of the electric power system.”

A Tool for Compliance

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a fact sheet on energy efficiency alongside the publication of the final ruling on 111(d), or the Clean Power Plan. The EPA explains that states leverage energy efficiency to meet their clean power goals across the different outlined compliance approaches. Even as politics surround the EPA’s authority to regulate on climate change, utilities and energy providers are demonstrating their commitments to energy efficiency not only as a tool for hedging the potential regulatory risk, but also as a means of supporting grid reliability and resiliency.

Navigant Research suggests that energy management software is becoming an increasingly vital tool for promoting energy efficiency programs, tracking reductions in consumption, and improving customer satisfaction. On November 12, Direct Energy announced the acquisition of Panoramic Power, a device-level energy management solution. Direct Energy explained its perspective in a news release, stating “The commercial industry trend is moving toward more centralized energy management solutions with a focus on automated energy data collection and reporting, which is why Direct Energy aims to seamlessly incorporate Panoramic Power’s technology and analytical expertise into what we offer our growing customer base.”

The cost-effective deployment of energy management software has been proving its business value to customers directly (check out the Navigant Research’s Building Energy Management Systems report for more information), and market activity shows strong indications that utilities want in the game. Looking ahead, there will be winners in the marketplace, and intelligent, easy-to-deploy devices may help accelerate interest from utilities. These recent developments are driving the Navigant Research expectation that even more momentum is developing from the acquisitions and partnerships between utilities and technology providers.


Renewed Interest in Older Forms of Energy Storage

— November 17, 2015

After recently receiving support from Governor Steve Bullock, a planned pumped hydro storage (PHS) project in Montana has moved one step closer to reality. While the Gordon Butte project still faces many hurdles on the road to development, it is being embraced by many in Montana as a way to help take advantage of the state’s abundant renewable energy resources. Located in remote Meagher County, the facility would add a 400 MW resource capable of storing excess wind energy to be released at times of high demand. Montana-based Absaroka Energy is developing the project, working to secure financing and permits, as well as an interconnection and partnership agreement with a regional utility.

This project is part of a trend of renewed interest in PHS and other forms of electro-mechanical energy storage. According to Navigant Research’s Energy Storage Tracker 1Q15 report, there are 42 PHS projects in various stages of development around the world, including 13 located in the United States. As the penetration of renewable energy increases globally, energy storage solutions of all types are emerging as efficient ways to manage fluctuating supply and demand. While advanced batteries are an ideal choice for managing the grid’s stability over short time periods, the economics of very long duration (6+ hour) energy storage often do not line up given the high upfront cost and limited lifetime of battery technologies. Thus, many grid operators are looking at alternative storage technologies to help align the output of renewable energy with times of peak demand.

Generation and Demand

A common issue with renewable energy is the mismatch between when energy is generated and when demand is highest; this is a particularly acute problem in remote areas or physical islands that are unable to import or export energy whenever it is needed. In Montana and other areas, wind power is generally most productive at night (when there is minimal demand for energy) and is generally unavailable during peak demand hours when energy is needed most. The aim of Gordon Butte and other planned PHS projects is to allow this abundant wind energy to be shifted from when it is produced to times of peak demand, often in the evening, helping to ease utility concerns around balancing wind’s variable output. An economical means of storing large amounts of wind energy could allow Montana to fully capitalize on its immense natural resources, potentially allowing the state to export power to surrounding areas and greatly reducing the amount it spends on importing fossil fuels.

Despite the attractive economics and potential positive impacts PHS facilities can have, development of such large and complex infrastructure projects can be challenging, costly, and time-consuming. In addition to concerns regarding impacts on water resources and local wildlife, issues surround land-use and permitting have derailed past projects. These projects will face increasing competition from rapidly advancing battery technologies that are improving the economics of long-duration storage with more flexibility and less complex development processes.


Despite Volkswagen Scandal, GM Remains Committed to Diesel

— November 17, 2015

In the wake of the ongoing revelations about Volkswagen (VW) deliberately manipulating powertrain control software in order to pass emissions tests in Europe and the United States, it would have been unsurprising if General Motors (GM) and other automakers immediately cancelled all future diesel engine plans. Instead, GM remains fully committed to a broad portfolio of fuel efficiency technologies that include diesel engines in a variety of vehicles.

In June 2015, Dan Nicholson, GM vice president of global powertrain development, announced that “GM wants to be considered the leader in North American passenger car diesels.” The same month, Nicholson also spoke to the media and to analysts at a Chevrolet technology forum where the second-generation Cruze was revealed. In North America, the new Cruze will be offered with two four-cylinder powertrain options, a 1.4-liter turbocharged gasoline engine, and a 1.6-liter diesel.

Diesel on Schedule

Barely 2 months later, the automobile leader that Nicholson wanted to dethrone began imploding from self-inflicted wounds and proceeded to take an entire class of fuel-savings technology down with it. Despite the acknowledged illegal actions of VW and unconfirmed reports that other manufacturers may have cheated in a similar fashion, Mark Reuss, GM executive vice president for global product development, is staying the course.

Reuss told a group of North American Car and Truck of the Year jurors in early November that the next-generation Cruze diesel remains on schedule for production in 2016. That announcement came as GM revealed that the diesel-powered 2016 Chevrolet Colorado and GMC Canyon had officially been certified by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as the most fuel efficient pickups in the United States with an estimated 22 mpg city, 25 mpg combined, and 31 mpg on the highway.

The certification of the new trucks was due right around the time that the VW scandal went public and was held up for several weeks as the EPA decided that these should be among the first vehicles to undergo additional road testing in order to validate the results of the usual lab tests.

Unlike VW’s four-cylinder diesel engines, the GM trucks and the Cruze utilize a urea-injection system to control emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx). During development prior to the launch of the Cruze diesel in 2013, Chevrolet did test the same lean NOx trap technology used by VW, but found it inadequate to meet EPA and California Air Resources Board standards.

During a weeklong evaluation earlier this year, a 2015 Cruze diesel returned 39 mpg in combined driving with the older 2.0-liter engine that was then in use. The 2017 Cruze diesel will be powered by a new 1.6-liter engine that debuted earlier this year in several Opel models in Europe. In the Cruze, the new engine is expected to easily beat the 33 mpg combined rating of the old model.

Navigant Research’s Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies report projects that diesels will only account for about 3% of North American light duty vehicles sales in 2025, but GM wants a big piece of that market as the company takes advantage of every technology in its portfolio. GM is already aggressively slimming the mass of its new vehicles and adding automatic stop-start as a standard feature on many models. In the next year, the company is set to launch new conventional and plug-in hybrid electric systems, the 200-mile Bolt electric vehicle, and by 2020 plans to launch fuel cell electric vehicles. No stone—including diesel—will be left unturned by GM.


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