Cleantech Market Intelligence
Chevy Bolt Could Break Open the EV Market
With GM’s announcement at the Chicago Auto Show that the Chevrolet Bolt battery electric vehicle (BEV) design concept would go into production, one of the biggest surprises of January’s North American International Auto Show became a reality just 1 month later. Although GM officials declined to comment on specific production timing, it’s now certain that the Bolt will be the automaker’s next BEV.
What makes the Bolt so important to GM and the auto industry as a whole is the targeted specification and price point. GM CEO Mary Barra quoted an electric driving range of at least 200 miles for the Bolt and a price of $30,000 after federal tax incentives. According to Navigant Research’s report, Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies, non-gasoline and diesel vehicles (including BEVs) are expected to account for less than 4% of light duty vehicle sales in 2024. If GM can execute on its goals, this car could break the market open and become a truly mainstream-acceptable BEV, with a price tag right in the heart of the market and battery capacity that should alleviate virtually all range anxiety.
Room for Five
According to KBB.com, at the end of 2014, the average transaction price of new vehicles in the United States reached $34,367. Recent media reports have indicated that production of the Bolt could start at GM’s Orion assembly plant north of Detroit by the end of 2016 or early 2017. By that time, the Bolt’s projected $38,000 sticker price won’t be much more than the average. Combined with the low operating costs of a BEV, that makes the Bolt a very attractive consumer financial package.
Another potentially critical argument in favor of the Bolt is its form factor. In recent years, American consumers have increasingly been migrating away from cars to crossover utility vehicles (CUV), particularly compact and midsize models such as the Chevrolet Equinox, Honda CR-V, and Ford Escape. With its taller CUV-style body and underfloor battery pack, the Bolt concept appears to offer ample room for five people—something that cannot be legitimately claimed for the Volt.
The second-generation Nissan LEAF and the Tesla Model 3 are likely to be the primary competitors to the Bolt. With more than 150,000 sales to date, the LEAF is the best-selling plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) of all time. A new model is expected in 2016 with a projected range of about 150 miles. Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has promised the Model 3 by 2017 with a price of $35,000 before incentives and a 200-mile range. But the company’s new $5 billion Gigafactory battery plant, which will supply the Model 3, is not scheduled for completion until the end of 2017. It seems unlikely that the new car will arrive much before then. Tesla also has a history of mixing and matching numbers, claiming range specifications for high-end models along with entry-level prices. The $35,000 Model 3 is likely to deliver significantly less than the 200-mile range claimed by Musk.
GM has a major opportunity with the Bolt to make an impact in the EV market that the Volt has so far failed to achieve. Navigant Research will be watching the development of this car very closely over the next several years.