Comments on: EIA Foresees Fossil-Fueled Future for Transportation http://www.navigantresearch.com/blog/eia-foresees-fossil-fueled-future-for-transportation Tue, 15 Apr 2014 17:27:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.8.1 By: Ryan Citron http://www.navigantresearch.com/blog/eia-foresees-fossil-fueled-future-for-transportation/comment-page-1#comment-38398 Fri, 03 Jan 2014 21:01:05 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60524#comment-38398 Thanks for your comment John. We agree that the EIA tends to be overly conservative in their estimates. Certainly, understating the potential increase in gasoline prices and underestimating the cost reductions in battery technologies heavily contribute to their assessment.

]]>
By: John Voelcker http://www.navigantresearch.com/blog/eia-foresees-fossil-fueled-future-for-transportation/comment-page-1#comment-38391 Fri, 03 Jan 2014 13:51:14 +0000 http://www.navigantresearch.com/?p=60524#comment-38391 The EIA has a notoriously poor record in predicting the future.

If you accept the rough average of 7% annual improvement in automotive Li-ion cell cost-performance (which is the historic average for 20 years of consumer cells), by 2025 you’re in some very interesting places–let alone 2040.

Honestly, I don’t know of a whole lot of informed people in the various industries who take this projection terribly seriously.

]]>