Navigant Research Blog

EPA’s New Emissions Standards Will Save Lives

Ryan Citron — March 18, 2014

In an earlier blog, I argued that disagreements over the scientific merits of climate change too often overshadow the immediate public health and air pollution impacts of fossil fuel consumption.  The Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) public statements on its new Tier 3 vehicle emissions standards have done an excellent job of focusing on the real public health benefits of the new regulations without engaging in the climate change debate.

As a result of tightening vehicle emissions standards and requiring refiners to reduce the amount of sulfur in gasoline by two-thirds, the EPA estimates that up to 2,000 premature deaths will be avoided each year, as well as thousands of hospital visits, not to mention countless missed days of work, school absences, and activity restrictions.  By 2030, the EPA concludes that the Tier 3 emissions standards will be saving Americans anywhere from $6.7 billion to $19 billion in health costs each year.  Costs to the consumer have been valued at less than a penny per gallon of gasoline and $72 per vehicle in automaker equipment costs.

The new regulations, which will take effect in 2017, have been largely supported by automakers.  The rules harmonize EPA and California standards, removing the need to develop and certify two types of vehicles.  The oil industry has been aggressively opposed to the standards, arguing that they add prohibitive costs.  However, analysis from the EPA and even some oil industry analysts shows that this concern is overstated.  The oil industry made the same claim over Tier 2 sulfur reduction requirements, which were achieved successfully and cost-effectively.

From Vehicles to Power Plants?

While regulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from motor vehicles is an accepted use of authority from the EPA, the same cannot be said for stationary sources of pollution, such as factories, oil refineries, and power plants.  A crucial upcoming decision from the Supreme Court will determine whether the EPA has the jurisdictional authority under the Clean Air Act to regulate pollution from these stationary sources.  The court’s decision is expected to be handed down in June of this year.

As regulations of GHG emissions get increasingly stringent, cleaner burning alternative fuel vehicles and electric vehicles (EVs) will become more attractive.  According to Navigant Research’s report, Light Duty Natural Gas Vehicles, global annual light duty natural gas vehicle sales will grow from 2.3 million vehicles in 2014 to 3.8 million in 2023.  These increasingly demanding emissions standards will continue to make internal combustion engine vehicles less polluting, even as the overall environmental impact of EVs decreases as the electricity that powers them comes from cleaner sources.  If the Supreme Court rules in favor of the EPA’s jurisdictional authority over stationary sources of air pollution, natural gas usage in power plants could see a large uptick as well, and the coal industry may see the days of building new power plants in its rear view mirror as a result.

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