Cleantech Market Intelligence
India’s Faulty Grid Presents A Transmission Opportunity
Many of us here in the United States have little appreciation for the tremendous size and opportunity for electric transmission and distribution system technologies in the Asia Pacific region. To use Geoffrey Moore’s analogies regarding how technology markets develop, there are the 500-pound gorillas, two or three followers, and a number of other wannabes.
Taking that metaphor to the regional market level, the Asia Pacific market has two significant gorilla countries, India and China, some followers like Japan, Australia, and Indonesia, and then the other wannabe countries. Electric transmission technology vendors have an opportunity-rich environment across the region, but the sheer scale of the opportunities and the sophisticated plans in India and China present the biggest gorillas. To illustrate this point, I’ll focus on India, where the national transmission planning process is most transparent.
The 1.2 Billion
India currently has a population of 1,264,360,000 people, representing 17.5% of the world’s population, or 386 people per km2, of which only an estimated 30% have electricity. The country’s landmass is approximately 3,287,263.00 km2, which is about half the size of the United States. India currently has over 220 gigawatts (GW) of generation capacity, a number that is expected to grow to 425 GW in 2022, with the addition of up to 66,000 kilometers of transmission lines and 90 new substations. Most of the current electric transmission system in India is in the 135 kilovolt (kV) to 450 kV range, and it has significant reliability issues due to weather, introduction of intermittent renewables, and aging infrastructure.
The fascinating point here is that Power Grid India, the national transmission system operator, is now building out a high-voltage transmission superhighway that will serve as the backbone for India’s rapidly expanding transmission and distribution grid. This plan is exceptional because of the use of extra-high-voltage 800 kV high-voltage direct current (HVDC) and 765 kV high-voltage alternating current (HVAC) systems – on a scale seen nowhere on the globe except in China. The following graphic shows the overall configuration.
Planned HVTSs under Implementation, India
(Source: Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd.)
The Way Forward
Adding to the tremendous scale, India is specifying and using the latest technologies, including state-of-the-art flexible AC transmission system (FACTS) devices such as static VAR compensators (SVCs) and static synchronous compensator (STATCOMs) that are still controversial in some regions in North America, such as PJM, as well as synchrophasor and wide area situational awareness (SWASA) technologies and solutions to better manage the transmission grid in real-time. These technologies and markets are discussed in a series of Navigant Research reports from 2014, including Flexible AC Transmission Systems and High Voltage Transmission Systems.
India recently deployed over 1,300 phasor measurement units (PMUs), giving the country one of the largest current PMU deployments in the world, showing leadership in advancing these new and powerful technologies.
For the big three electric transmission technology companies, ABB, GE/Alstom, and Siemens, as well as the other technology companies like Schneider, S&C, Mitsubishi, Toshiba, and other new entrants, the rapid expansion of India’s transmission system represents a tremendous revenue opportunity. For the population of India, it represents electrification on a large scale a much more reliable and resilient power grid – and a path to a much higher standard of living.