Navigant Research Blog

Interest in Electric Trucks Is on the Rise

David Alexander — May 31, 2016

Electric TruckElectric vehicles (EVs) have been making steady progress in technology and popularity since the Nissan LEAF was introduced in 2010, bringing all-electric drive to the high-volume production car market. Ford debuted the all-electric Ford Focus Electric in 2011, Tesla made another step toward becoming a volume manufacturer in 2012 when it launched the Model S, and a year later, BMW introduced the i3. These are just some of the highlights, and now pretty much every major manufacturer has all-electric vehicles in their product portfolio either now or planned for the near future.

Batteries and Charging

Hybrid technology is also continuing to grow in popularity, and in some regions of the world, plug-in hybrids are selling well. Lithium ion batteries have become the preferred onboard energy storage option, and demand for the batteries from automotive producers is driving investment in new production facilities and bringing unit cost per kilowatt-hour down.

Another sign of progress supporting the growth in popularity of EVs is the development of fast charging and wireless charging. This is particularly important for fleet operators with vehicles in use all day and not parked during work hours; consumer vehicles can often be recharged slowly while not in use.

A recent Navigant Research report, Transportation Forecast: Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles, identifies which vehicle types are more likely to adopt a variety of alternative powertrains. For the first time, this report looks at the differences between buses and trucks and between medium and heavy duty vehicles. Trucks are a significant contributor to global emissions, and governments in many countries are beginning to look at tightening legislation and setting more stringent targets.

New Options for Fleet Managers

Hybrid and electric drives offer OEMs and fleet managers options to lower their emissions and run cleaner vehicles. Systems have now been tested for many years and there is a lot of data available on reliability and long-term costs, but it is also clear from these tests that the suitability of any powertrain is highly dependent on the work duty cycle and must be optimized for a particular purpose. The longevity of commercial vehicles means that sales growth of these alternative powertrains will remain slow in the short term.

More government incentives to encourage fleet renewal and subsidize the necessary infrastructure would help to accelerate the rollout of cleaner powertrains for commercial vehicles. Lower prices for conventional fuels have had a negative effect in recent years. However, future increases in oil prices are expected to produce more incentive to electrify where it makes sense. Fleet managers would be well-advised to begin planning for the introduction of new technology now.

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