Navigant Research Blog

Timely Launches Fuel EV Market

Ryan Citron — January 29, 2014

According to Navigant Research’s free white paper Electric Vehicles: 10 Predictions for 2014,  the global electric vehicle (EV) industry is poised to grow by 86% this year, surpassing 346,000 new vehicles sold.  Additionally, our report Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts  predicts compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) for hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) (9.6%), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) (28.5%), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) (29.3%).  In order to achieve these growth rates, new EV model releases will have to closely align with market expectations.  Unfortunately, in the past many EV makers have not had a stellar record of launching new models on time.

Let’s take a look at 2013 (model year 2014) and see what EV models were released as scheduled in North America.  All EVs that were expected to be released in 2013 are currently available, with the exception of the 2014 Nissan Altima Hybrid.  BEVs such as the Chevrolet E-Spark, Fiat 500e, and smart fortwo; PHEVs such as the Ford Fusion Energi, Honda Accord, VIA SUV, VIA Pickup, and VIA Van; and HEVs such as the Ford Fusion, VW Jetta, Lexus ES 300h, and the Acura ILX were all released as expected.  The recent pattern of releasing new models in a timely fashion will play an important role in the healthy growth of the EV industry.

In the luxury EV space in particular, new model releases will stiffen the competition like never before.  Tesla’s highly successful Model S will be challenged by BMW’s i8 and i3, the Cadillac ELR, the Audi A3 e-tron, the Mercedes B-Class Electric Drive, and the Porsche Panamera S E-Hybrid, assuming that they are launched on time.  Reliable model releases will encourage better competition and increase consumer confidence, hopefully leading to better products, lower prices, and overall more robust EV markets.

Expected HEV, PHEV, and BEV Releases, North America: 2014

(Source: Navigant Research)

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