Navigant Research Blog

UK Offshore Wind Costs Plummet to Record Lows

Jesse Broehl — October 5, 2017

Offshore wind power costs are plummeting as wind turbines get bigger and European countries implement a variety of market-oriented competitive pricing schemes. The general pattern is to let wind project developers bid and compete for the lowest power purchase agreement (PPA) price at which they are still confidently willing to finance and build a wind project. The latest results of the United Kingdom’s Contracts for Difference (CfD) auction for 15-year contracts are being hailed as a breakthrough on price.

Contracts for Difference Awards

3,196 MW was awarded mid-September, divided to go to three projects. Project and price highlights are as follows:

  • Dong Energy will construct its 1,386 MW Hornsea Project Two with a winning bid at £57.50/MWh ($75.75/MWh). Staged commissioning is planned for years 2022 and 2023.
  • EDP Renovaveis (EDPR) also won its CfD bid at the same £57.50/MWh ($75.75/MWh) price for its 950 MW Moray Offshore Wind Farm East with a similar 2022-2023 completion timeframe.
  • Innogy (formerly RWE Innogy) won its CfD bid at £74.75/MWh ($98.48/MWh) for its 860 MW Triton Knoll offshore project.

Other Offshore Wind Wins

Technically, the lowest prices awarded recently for offshore wind are for the Borssele III and IV wind farms off the Netherlands, amounting to 700 MW at a new record low PPA price of €54.5/MWh ($65.2/MWh). This was awarded in December 2016 to a consortium made up of Shell, Van Oord, Eneco, and Mitsubishi/DGE. The next lowest price seen yet was awarded in September 2016 as part of Denmark’s nearshore tender to Vattenfall for its 350 MW Vesterhav Syd and Vesterhav Nord wind farms at €60/MWh ($71.79/MWh).

However, while both of those projects are nominally the lowest PPA contract price, the Borssele projects in the Netherlands and the Danish nearshore tender do not include the cost of transmission and grid connection. This cost is estimated to add another approximately $15/MWh-$20/MWh, which pushes their real price up to around the price level of the recent UK CfD projects.

Changes in the Past Few Years

These recent prices reflect a rapid drop from offshore PPA prices only a few years ago. Dong’s 1,200 MW Hornsea 1, which will go online in 2020, was guaranteed £140/MWh ($184.2/MWh) in 2014. Three years later, the recently awarded 1,386 MW Hornsea 2 will proceed at less than half the previous Hornsea 1 project’s cost. By comparison, the new low prices are coming in cheaper than the United Kingdom’s nuclear power.

In addition, in the previous CfD auction in 2015, two offshore wind farm projects won subsidies between £114/MWh and £120/MWh ($150/MWh and $157.8/MWh)—Neart na Gaoithe and East Anglia 1, respectively.

Other Auctions and Numbers

Recent April 2017 offshore wind auctions in Germany should also be mentioned. Dong and EnBW won power contracts for offshore wind plants totaling 1,490 MW with zero subsidies.

Large projects and ever growing turbine sizes are major reasons for the price drop. The latest generation Vestas 9.5 MW turbine can provide enough power for over 8,000 average UK homes. Siemens likewise has rapidly uprated its offshore platform to 8 MW, and the company is hinting at a 10 MW plus turbine for coming years. Dong and EDPR did not disclose the turbine nameplate rating expected for their latest wind projects, but size is likely to be between 10 MW and 15 MW per turbine. Larger turbine units generate more power and reduce the total number of offshore foundations needed for a given project size, thereby reducing construction, foundations, and inter-array cable cost.

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