Residential and commercial rooftops have long provided an ideal location for solar installations, especially in crowded urban areas. However, the availability of true BIPV (building integrated photovoltaic) and BAPV (building applied photovoltaic) solar products designed for rooftop installation has been limited. Therefore, the solar industry’s interest in manufacturing such products has not been strong. (Note: We define BIPV/BAPV as solar products designed to replace conventional building materials, to be installed as part of a rooftop structure, and to be esthetically pleasing).

These limitations are about to change and the market for BIPV/BAPV products for rooftop applications is about to soar with the likely entry of solar tiles and shingles from Dow Solar Solutions, Solarfun, Canadian Solar and other products that will be added to current offering from UniSolar, Swiss Solar Systems, Scheuten Solar, Shuco and an array of other companies.

Growth of solar BIPV/BAPV products will probably be spurred by a number of new developments such as the developing ability to laminate relatively high-efficiency (currently just under 11%) CIGS panels into shingles that replace conventional asphalt shingles and generate power at the same time. If these tiles can be designed to permit both mechanical and electrical connection at the same time, they can be installed by professional roofers. At that point, the residential market for rooftop BIPV would be limited only by the cost of the shingles that must provide payback in five years or less to be attractive to most homeowners.

The move of several c-Si module companies entering the market to provide esthetically pleasing semi-transparent modules for atria and shading structure BIPV/BAPV applications also promises to add to market TAM for rooftop applications. These new modules are manufactured with glass panels on two sides and variable spacing of cells to provide different patterns and density.

As a result of these and a few other BIPV/BAPV product nuances, we expect the market for these products to grow at a 39% CAGR to reach almost 900 MW by 2014 as shown in the following table:

As an outside possibility, this market could grow to as much as 1200 MW if the cost of solar shingles can be driven to less than $1.15/W while maintaining the size and esthetics of normal slate tiles.

Former VW Chairman Carl Hahn told a group at the Seoul Forum that China has the capability to dominate the electric vehicle (EV) market.  This did not come as a surprise, not only because many Chinese manufacturers are pushing EVs to market, but also because there have been others in the auto industry who have been stating this possibility.  GM’s European president Nick Reilly made a similar statement in late June.  Pike Research’s analysis also points to strong Chinese sales, with Chinese EV sales topping North America and Western Europe EV combined sales by 2015.

There are several reasons that many are bullish on China’s EV market.  The Chinese government has been fully supporting the efforts of manufacturers through subsidies, research funding, and big lines of credit.  Battery manufacturers in China are already among the most affordable (though some may argue that this is at the expense of quality for many manufacturers).  Finally, there is a vast array of Chinese car manufacturers are pursuing “green” vehicle technology, as the government clamps down on emissions in the largest cities. 

Another reason to expect fast growing Chinese demand for EVs is often overlooked.  That is the fact that many Chinese consumers are already accustomed to plugging in their vehicles.  The huge electric bicycle and motorcycle market in China has many customers already with a mindset to understand range limitations, recharging their vehicles, and they have already made these small electric two-wheel vehicles work with their lifestyles.  As consumers become more affluent and look to switch from two-wheeled transportation to cars, the switch to EVs can be expected to be a comfortable one for many consumers.  Most consumers in the United States and European countries are likely to require more education as the mass market is likely less comfortable with the concept of shorter ranges and having to plug in a vehicle.

While it can be argued that demand will be limited by a lack of charging stations in China for EV cars, this is changing.  Rapidly.  Companies like ECOtality are committing to build recharging infrastructure in China, and Chinese utilities are currently installing recharging stations in 13 provinces.  The Chinese government is providing substantial subsidies for not only recharging infrastructure, but also EV purchases. 

China became the largest vehicle market in 2009, and it should not therefore come as any surprise that it would also lead in EVs.  The combined economic force of the Chinese government and growing manufacturers, the openness of mass-market consumers to considering EVs, and low cost batteries are likely to help propel the Chinese EV market well ahead of either the North America or European retail markets. 

The San Francisco to Silicon Valley corridor made many a millionaire during the dot-com boom as companies wanted their mail to arrive at a place close to technical talent and potential investors. While much smaller in scale, the industry for electric vehicle charging technology is also being largely centered in the Bay Area for similar reasons.

Since their inception, Better Place (Palo Alto) and Coulomb Technologies (Campbell) have leveraged local product development talent that came of age during the ‘90s technology boom. EV charging stations use many of the same technologies that inflated the bubble, including telecommunications and IP networks. Company founders (such as Better Place’s Shai Agassi) could also tap into the many investors who in recent years have shifted from Internet tech to cleantech.

Charging equipment supplier ECOtality, which was founded in Phoenix as eTec, announced on Tuesday that it is moving its headquarters to downtown San Francisco, adding a third well-established company to Northern California. The company accurately stated that the Bay Area “is the nexus of the EV industry” as well as one of the largest market for EVs. Other EV-related companies in the Bay Area include automaker Tesla Motors and smart grid company Silver Spring Networks. EV charging equipment company Clipper Creek is about 2 hours away in Auburn, California. Automakers looking to partner with charging companies can now easily access the leading players within an hour’s drive.

ECOtality is leading the installations of more than 12,000 federally-funded EV charging stations across the country, including metropolitan areas in its former home in Arizona, Washington, Oregon, Tennessee and California. Despite local government commitment to EV charging infrastructure in San Jose, Oakland, and San Francisco, the Bay Area was surprisingly omitted from the original DOE grant recipients last year , but earlier this month Coulomb Technologies received a grant to install charging equipment in nine areas including the Bay.

Along with the SF Bay Area, Portland, Seattle and Los Angeles are likely to see the highest penetration of EVs, and each region has its own crop of EV companies. EV charging equipment company Aerovironment and EV makers Coda Automotive and Aptera are all based in Southern California, while Portland is home to EV charging companies Optimization Technologies and Shorepower Technologies.

Not surprising, many of the utilities that have been the most supportive of EVs are located in these same areas, including Pacific Gas & Electric, Portland General Electric, and San Diego Gas & Electric.

These West Coast areas will see an inordinate percentage of the EVs delivered during the next two years, and will experience most of the lessons that will be learned in EV charging. This concentrated effort will provide valuable information before EVs are slowly rolled out throughout the rest of the country.

Electric vehicles are symbols of independence, offering freedom from directly emitting greenhouse gases and fluctuating fossil fuel prices, and to plug-in virtually anywhere. But the reliance on the grid for “fuel” requires a strong incentive for EVs to be connected devices. Electric vehicles will be among the most connected vehicles available, receiving information about where to charge, and when they plug-in, exchanging information with the grid so that they can be charged in an optimal fashion.

The number of vehicles that plug into the grid will be relatively small during the next few years and will not require building additional power plants. But their potential impact in drawing power from residential neighborhoods at peak times will necessitate establishing communications with the grid. With smart grid equipment in place, EVs will provide information about how much energy they’ll need, and the grid can automatically determine when and at what rates the vehicles will be charged.

EVs and charging equipment will both have communications with grid equipment, but the pathway and role each type of equipment plays has not been determined. Residential charging equipment could communicate over existing communications, such as the local wireless or broadband connection, relying on commercial cellular networks, or by plugging into a smart meter where available.

Commercial EV charging equipment will often be part of a network (examples include technology from Coulomb Technologies and Better Place) that may include wireless or broadband technology, and a cellular connection is also likely to be involved as part of the communications link.

For EVs themselves, “cellular is the only practical option,” for communications according to Ignacio Contreras, who works in Corporate New Business Development at communications equipment maker Qualcomm. Vehicle mobility requires being able to connect anywhere, and cellular networks are the most reliable and ubiquitous.

“Connectivity will be a requirement for mass market adoption of electric vehicles,” says Contreras. The upcoming Nissan Leaf and Chevrolet Volt will both include cellular connections in the vehicle, and Contreras believes most EVs will feature embedded cellular as either an option or standard feature.

The cost of the vehicle-grid connection will be built into the vehicle price or in some instances or be part of a subscription service, such as GM’s OnStar. Other companies may take a different approach by leveraging connectivity provided by the EV owner’s mobile phone.

EVs could directly communicate with the grid equipment over cellular networks to ensure that charging goes smoothly. Contreras will discuss the potential of cellular networks for EV and charging infrastructure integration with the Smart Grid during a panel discussion of vehicle to grid communications at the Plug-In 2010 conference, which begins on July 26 in San Jose.

Contreras says EVs are at the intersection of two of the most interesting areas for M2M communications — smart grid and automotive. Qualcomm, which has been studying the EV opportunity for about two years, will demonstrate how cellular networks enable the EV ecosystem in a booth located at the conference exhibit.