Navigant Research Blog

When Competitors Help You Succeed

— November 14, 2017

Today’s energy efficient buildings solutions can involve complex interactions between technologies and vendors. As building components become deeply integrated with intelligent building technologies, it is increasingly rare for one vendor to supply the entirety of the technology. Large global vendors may have the resources to acquire or build diverse sets of technologies, but it is difficult for one company to claim market leadership or even significant competence in all technological areas. In some instances, this strategy can even amount to brand dilution or lack of focus.

Models for Success

Business models are playing into this quickly emerging market dynamic. In the past, the prevalent model was for companies to offer a single product or unit for sale. Sales were mostly a one-time transaction with a marketing follow-up when the product became outdated or reached the end of its useful life. Customer retention was difficult with this model, and revenue streams were uneven and influenced by the economy, market trends, and a host of other drivers or hurdles. As a service business models, such as software as a service or platform as a service, alleviated some of the risks and downfalls of single product or license-based sales. For vendors, this meant a more recurrent revenue stream, more consistent interaction with customers, and an opportunity to upsell additional products and services as part of the ongoing relationship. However, these as a service models are still somewhat limited, as they may only solve one aspect of a customer’s problem. In an increasingly integrated world, as a service offerings can be seen as being similar to single product offerings when viewed from the perspective of a customer’s problem set.

Selling solutions or projects has evolved as a business model with market advantages. This model looks at a customer’s priorities and a specific problem or problem set, and combines technologies and services to solve that problem. Notice that competitive advantage was not used to describe it. The reason? Assembling the best solution set may involve working closely with direct market competitors, or coopetition, as the term has been coined.

Coopetition

Energy service companies (ESCOs), for example, are familiar with coopetition. ESCOs utilize a financial structure called an energy savings performance contract (ESPC) where, in simple terms, the efficiency upgrades are financed and paid for out of the energy savings. ESCO projects can be designed to deliver specific equipment upgrades, but typical projects encompass a bundle of improvements across technology types. This approach improves the economics of the entire project by blending the returns of high cost, longer payback pieces of equipment (e.g., HVAC systems) with lower cost, faster payback items (e.g., LED lighting). As described in a recent Navigant Research report, ESCO Market Overview, the necessity of bundling technologies and services to make the ESPC work from a financial perspective has caused ESCOs to embrace coopetition with a solution or a project-oriented business model.

Coopetition allows vendors with complementary strengths to apply those strengths to a project and share in common gains. Additionally, vendors are realizing there is great opportunity in shifting from the single point solution or component manufacturing role to the platform play that will support deeper, ongoing customer engagements. Success in this realm means positioning solutions in terms of broader business impacts, with a desire to engage directly with the c-suite. There is no cookie cutter design for partnerships or coopetition in commercial terms. This is a nascent market where flexibility is a key parameter. In this landscape, creativity and openness will be rewarded, and unprepared vendors may face real market disruption as they realize that they are unprepared for competition from non-traditional sources.

 

Cities and Businesses Care about Smart Buildings: Part 2

— November 14, 2017

With 238 proposals in hand from cities and regions across North America vying to host its second headquarters, Amazon plans to make a decision next year. Cities trying to lure Amazon should turn this occasion into an opportunity to strengthen their business environments to both complement and drive investment in smart buildings.

Regulatory Certainty and Standardization of Business

In order to attract investment in smart buildings, governments should work toward offering certainty and standardization for investors. Certainty refers to predictable outcomes or guaranteed returns. Governments can establish policies that set expectations for the building sector. Cities that adopt and enforce building energy codes, for example, can quickly increase local demand for energy efficiency technology. Stable demand means a stable market for finance.

In addition, having common standards for assessing risks will be helpful. For example, many stakeholders are already familiar with existing green building standards like Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED). If governments use policies such as financial incentives to encourage broader adoption of such standards, that will make it easier for investors to assess a project and ultimately increase the likelihood of investment.

Leading by Example

As a start, enforcing policies like building efficiency codes and fostering voluntary programs to pursue LEED certification can offer certainty and standardization. Cities can lead by example, ensuring that their own buildings adhere to the policy goals, unleashing the power of information and communication technology in public buildings. In its recent report, Smart Buildings and Smart Cities, Navigant Research expects the global smart public buildings market revenue to grow from $3.6 billion in 2017 to $10.2 billion by 2026 at a compound annual growth rate of 12.1%.

One of the leaders in this area is Washington, DC, which was named the first LEED for Cities Platinum city in the world in August 2017. Washington, DC requires all new public sector buildings to achieve a minimum of LEED Silver certification. And starting in 2012, all new private buildings over 50,000 square feet were required to achieve LEED certification. Once the regulations kicked in, the private sector responded by competing for LEED certifications—developers wanted to achieve higher levels of certification against their competitors.

Regulatory certainty and standardization of business together with government efforts to lead by example are key to encouraging investment in the smart buildings sector. As stated in my previous blog, cities wishing to remain competitive in the face of new emerging technologies and a new generation of top talent will want smart buildings as an action item.

 

Rethinking Intelligent Building ROI: Follow the Money to Transactions

— November 14, 2017

The intelligent buildings market has undergone a makeover in recent years that has yet to move the needle on widespread investment. The narrative has shifted in the last 2-3 years from a focus on energy efficiency to business insight. The logic behind the push makes sense when you consider the financial impacts of energy costs relative to employee costs in terms of building ownership (remember the omnipresent JLL 3:30:300 calculator). The problem is, metrics that impact payroll or employee costs are complex and interactive. There is no mutually exclusive measure of productivity—if a workspace has the perfect temperature and lighting, an employee may still fail to meet a deadline because of so many hard-to-measure issues: personal life, management, workplace culture. The healthy building approach has been a pathway many stakeholders are taking to frame workplace conditions and worker productivity, but the reality is the numbers are still soft.

Energy efficiency remains a straightforward way to measure the impact of technology deployment. You invest in controls and automation in your office building, you see a reduction in your energy bill by 10%—that is a defensible measure of ROI. However, energy remains a small overall share of operating costs for many building owners, particularly relative to other business costs, so what can make building energy performance bare real weight in business? It seems a one-two punch of public disclosure and financial due diligence may be the answer.

Public Disclosure and Real Estate Valuation

Many US cities have aimed at building energy use as a lever to tackle greenhouse gas emissions. Public disclosure programs range from voluntary to mandatory but are generally limited to reporting, without mandates for efficiency improvements because of the politicization of climate change in the US. It seems there must be a bottom-line pressure that aligns with the energy performance rating to drive investment in energy efficiency. And now it seems there is.

A recent article in Urban Land explains, “If energy efficiency can be correlated to mortgage default rates, it could have a significant impact on energy disclosure and possibly even mortgage interest rates. Underwriters on new projects may consider requiring energy disclosure before issuing a new loan, or charging a higher interest rate (all else being equal) for energy-intensive properties. Mortgage companies looking to reduce their default risk may also look to engage their current portfolio in strategies to improve their energy efficiency.” This article was based on findings from a 2017 Lawrence Berkeley National Lab study, which aimed to correlate commercial mortgage default rates and energy efficiency. The study concludes that “building-level source energy use intensity (EUI) and the electricity price gap are statistically and economically associated with commercial mortgage defaults. Using building energy simulations, we find that building asset characteristics and operational practices that affect source EUI have very important effects on the likelihood of default.”

So, there it is, a roadmap for quantifying the relationship between building energy performance and real estate asset value. The argument could even go a step further and assert that intelligent building solutions are worthwhile investments to provide a foundation for minimizing EUI and ensuring ongoing energy efficiency gains. The analytics at the center of leading intelligent building solutions will monitor, report, and even predict changes in energy consumption based on space use. This insight can become strategic guideposts for business decisions around real estate. As more data is collected, there will be greater opportunity to tackle the challenge of quantifying those softer, yet significant, employee costs over time. Today, energy efficiency remains paramount in showcasing ROI.

 

Utilities Will Rely on Vendor Ecosystems to Support the Energy Transition

— November 10, 2017

Until recently, I often introduced presentations or blog posts with a warning that the utility industry was about to enter the most disruptive decade in its century-long existence. That is no longer true, because I believe the industry has now entered that decade. Okay, the timing for different countries may vary, as will the length of the period of disruption. In fact, some countries—Germany and Denmark in particular—have experienced significant disruption already. But for most markets, the rumblings, threats, omens, and rumors have only recently turned into action.

Navigant Research has a significant volume of commentary on future energy markets, all based around its concept of the Energy Cloud—where energy becomes more distributed, clean, intelligent, and mobile. The old business model of centralized generation will shift to a decentralized, customer-centric value chain, where energy services become far more important than energy supply. Navigant Research also identified an additional $1 trillion of new value created in the Energy Cloud by 2030.

There Will Be No Energy Transition without a Digital Transformation

It is important to note that the energy transition is as much a digital revolution as it is an energy revolution. The $1 trillion of new value identified by Navigant Research will likely be created through the provision of digital energy services, from automated demand response to transactive energy. None of this value will be delivered without access to vast quantities of data from an enormous and heterogeneous array of devices. None of this value can be delivered without a robust IT infrastructure to support digital energy services.

As part of thought leadership, Navigant Research has identified seven platforms that are critical to the delivery of digital services within the Energy Cloud. Additional white papers are on the roadmap to discuss these platforms in further detail. Next up is a white paper on the neural grid platform, which describes—among other things—the devices, communications, and analytics that will underpin all other digital services in the Energy Cloud.

Vendor Ecosystems Will Help Manage the Complexity of the Energy Cloud

Navigant Research’s upcoming Neural Grid white paper will shine a light on the sheer complexity of the IT infrastructure required. There will not be any plug and play platform for the foreseeable future. The market is new, moving rapidly, and different utilities have different requirements. As a result, over the next decades individual utilities will deploy many platforms that rely on many datasets created by many devices communicated over many networks using many protocols stored in many locations supplied by many, many different vendors.

It is critical for the success of the Energy Cloud that vendors cooperate within official and unofficial partnerships and work toward their customers’ common goals. Join us on November 14 at 2:00 p.m. EST for an Intel-sponsored Navigant Research webinar. We’ll explore in more detail how the energy transition and associated digital transformation requires strong vendor ecosystems and gain some insights from Intel, which sits at the heart of one of the largest smart grid ecosystems.

 

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