Navigant Research Blog

Differing Diesel Views Sow Auto Industry Confusion

— February 17, 2015

During January’s North American International Auto Show (NAIAS), several manufacturers announced new diesel models to help them meet increasingly stringent fuel economy standards. Nissan unveiled a second-generation Titan XD that straddles the line between light and heavy duty pickups. Nissan will initially build the Titan XD, scheduled to launch this fall, with only a diesel engine; gas trucks with V6 and V8 engines will come later.

GM will be introducing a diesel engine in its Chevy Colorado and GMC Canyon later this year that could potentially increase fuel economy from the current 27 mpg to 30 mpg. Fiat Chrysler announced it will be increasing production of the Dodge Ram 1500 EcoDiesel pickup from 10% of models to 20%.

In the world of diesel cars, Volkswagen will unveil the Golf Gran Turismo Diesel (GTD) car at the upcoming Geneva Motor Show in March. Later this year, Suzuki will add an automatic transmission and several other updates to its SX4 S-Cross.

A Particular Problem

Diesel cars and trucks usually attain higher fuel economy ratings than their gasoline counterparts. According to Navigant Research’s report, Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies, the share of diesel cars and light trucks in North America is expected to increase from 1% in 2015 to 2.8% in 2025 as automakers continue to introduce more fuel-efficient models.

However, across the Atlantic, cities are looking to decrease the number of diesel vehicles driving in urban areas due to concerns that diesel vehicles’ higher levels of particulate emissions are causing environmental and health problems.

Not in My Town

Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo has designs on eliminating diesel vehicles from her city by 2020. Mayor Hidalgo recently announced a ban on some diesel delivery trucks and buses, beginning by July 2015. According to Paris24.com, Hidalgo will provide significant financial incentives for investing in less polluting vehicles. London Mayor Boris Johnson has similar concerns around particulate emissions and is doubling the congestion charges for driving diesel vehicles in the city center to £20.

One solution to reduce the amount of diesel emissions is to add a hybrid drivetrain to a diesel vehicle. Hybrid vehicles reduce the use of the diesel engine by relying on battery power during low speeds and when idling, thus reducing particulate emissions. According to Navigant Research’s report, Electric Drive Trucks and Buses, the currently small market for medium and heavy duty diesel hybrid trucks will grow by a 2014–2023 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 28.5% to nearly 95,000 units worldwide by 2023.

 

As Smart Grid Spreads, Substations Go Automated

— February 17, 2015

Navigant Research estimates that there are approximately 47,000 distribution substations (D-subs) across the United States, including privately owned substations (such as for large commercial sites or military bases), and another 12,500 transmission substations. We understand that the vast majority of critical transmission substations are automated—that is, they are connected to utility operations centers by communications networks, which allow personnel to monitor and control what happens inside these substations.

When it comes to the distribution grid, however, the level of visibility and automation in substations varies widely. Some utilities report that they have brought fiber to virtually all of their substations; others indicate that their visibility into the distribution grid is limited. We know that this is changing and that the percentage of D-subs with connectivity and automation capabilities is growing, but we also know that those sites historically served by leased copper lines for supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) are now in need of a new solution as telephone companies abandon their legacy copper networks.

Our present forecasts for automated substations estimate that total distribution grid substation connectivity was approximately 34% at the end of 2014; over the next 8 years, Navigant Research expects D-sub connectivity to exceed 50%.

Whither Substation Automation?

These figures are important for quantifying the evolution of the smart grid. You can’t have an estimate for automated substations if you don’t know how many substations there are to begin with. Absent government databases, though, it can be tough to nail down infrastructure statistics like these, and so I’m turning to the readers of this blog.

I’d like to invite readers to share anecdotal or specific data related to a few key questions related to overall infrastructure and the status of smart technology deployment.

What do you think? What percentage of your distribution substations are connected?  What technologies (fiber, microwave, T-1, etc.) are used for that connectivity? How quickly, if at all, is your company investing in D-sub connectivity, and why? Interesting anecdotes related to the topic of substation automation are welcome! I hope you’ll take the time to send your thoughts and data points to richelle.elberg@navigant.com.

Next time around I’ll explore distribution feeder automation and other distribution grid smart technology. Below is our forecast for distribution substation connectivity, which underlies the networking forecasts in the Navigant Research report, Smart Grid Networking and Communications.

United States Distribution Substation Connectivity Outlook

(Source: Navigant Research)

 

Going Ductless, AC Systems Gain Efficiency

— February 17, 2015

If the rest of the world used air conditioning like the United States, we’d be in trouble. Luckily, that is not the case. The presence of ductless split systems (which are ubiquitous almost everywhere else in the world) in U.S. homes is dwarfed by ducted central air conditioning units. Ducted units circulate air within a house to maintain an appropriate temperature, whereas ductless systems circulate refrigerant. Typical efficiencies of ducted central air conditioners run from 13 seasonal energy efficiency ratio (SEER), a measure of the energy consumed by an air conditioner based on its electricity consumption, to 21 SEER. Ductless split systems far more efficient; they’re available up to 33 SEER.

Many factors contribute to the slow adoption in the United States. U.S. houses are designed for and typically supplied with ducted systems. Running ducts through wood-framed American homes is far easier than in concrete, stone, or brick houses, which are more common abroad. But, general resistance to change among consumers, contractors, and distributors is the biggest factor that is holding back greater adoption. Ductless manufacturers have acknowledged this and are working to lower the barriers for switching that each stakeholder faces.

Changes to the Equipment

For contractors and distributors, ductless split system manufacturers reduce the burden of inventory management. Systems can come in a variety of configurations. One outdoor condensing unit can be connected to several indoor units (multi-zone) or just a single indoor unit (single-zone). Previously, these configurations required different units for multi-zone and single-zone configuration, and even units that have the same capacity aren’t interchangeable. But, earlier this year, Haier introduced its FlexFit ductless system, which can use the same indoor units in both single-zone and multi-zone configurations.

Similarly, several manufacturers of ductless split systems have eliminated cooling-only units and provide heat pump capability to all units.  Mechanically, the only difference between the two is a four-way valve. All heat pumps are capable of cooling, so providing a heat pump for a cooling application does not create any functional problems. Indeed, it appears that the logistics improvements associated with reducing the number of models offset the slightly higher cost of materials.

Is It Enough?

To win over reluctant consumers, LG Electronics has long focused on the aesthetics of the system. A traditional ducted system has a discreet register hidden on a wall, ceiling, or floor. Ductless systems entail indoor units in occupied spaces. To some, the units are unsightly. But, LG’s design-oriented Art Cool product line, featuring low profiles and designer color finishes, is an attempt at making indoor units pretty. Additionally, the company’s Art Cool Gallery hides the indoor unit in a picture frame that can be personalized with artwork or photography.

Navigant Research expects ductless systems to expand in North America in the future. But, even at aggressive growth rates, it will take years for ductless systems to reach parity with ducted ones. Cost remains a factor. Depending on the complexity of the system and whether ductwork already exists, installation of a ductless system can be much more expensive than the installation of a ducted system. Even if the United States never sees the same penetration rate as the rest of the world, though, ductless split systems will drive energy efficiency improvements in residential air conditioning.

 

Thermostat Studies Show Benefits of Being Smart

— February 16, 2015

This month Nest announced several studies that have been conducted on its learning thermostat.  One was conducted by MyEnergy, a Nest subsidiary that analyzes residential energy information. The others were conducted by the Energy Trust of Oregon and by Vectren Corporation, an Indiana-based holding company. The results boost Nest’s claims that the thermostat can pay for itself in only a year or 2.

Across the studies, evaluators found average annual reductions in electricity use between 13.9% and 15% for cooling and 10% and 12% for heating loads.  For natural gas, the Vectren study confirmed an average annual reduction of 12.5%.  In terms of cost savings, Nest states that adopters showed an average of 9.6% savings on their gas bill and 17.5% on their electric bill.

Last year, competitors EnergyHub and EcoFactor released third-party studies that indicated reductions in electricity use of 6% to 17% after thermostats controlled by their back-end platform were installed in users’ homes.

The Limits of Studies

Smart thermostats have become increasingly numerous in recent years. According to Navigant Research’s report, Smart Thermostats, North American household penetration of these devices is expected to exceed 20% by 2023. Until recently the market was concentrated in warm weather states, but adoption across colder climates is becoming more common, and utilities are becoming interested in smart thermostats for year-round energy efficiency and demand response (DR) programs.

Regardless, the high prices—$150 to $300 for the device alone—are still a barrier. Hence, smart thermostat vendors have trumpeted third-party studies that indicate positive return on investment (ROI) through energy bill savings. Analyses of products from EcoFactor, EnergyHub, and now Nest indicates annual energy savings in the 8% to 15% range.

But such studies can be interpreted in several ways. The most obvious conclusion is that the chances of incurring similar savings are good given the variety in the studies’ methodology and sample populations. On the other hand, factors like the locations of households, weather varying, and simultaneous energy efficient behaviors all affect study results.

Your Results May Vary

For states where heating and cooling are a small part of the utility bill, the savings from a smart thermostat will look different than those in an area where the costs are high. In such cases the results could be misleading.

The MyEnergy study included households from all over the country in its sample, and Nest claims that it is fairly representative of their adoption base—but is that representative of U.S. consumers as a group? The average reported savings might not fall in the middle of the spectrum of all consumers, so someone using this information as a basis for purchase of the $250 device could be anywhere from greatly or slightly disappointed to slightly or very pleased depending on how similar they are to the majority observed that indicated decent savings.

And if the consumer doesn’t really care enough to break down this information in the first place, much less nitpick findings from a variety of disparate studies? These types of adopters might be drawn to purchase the device simply for its user delight qualities. Nest has created an iconic device that by most accounts works really well and that has a lot of informational features designed to trigger more energy efficient behavior. That would be a great outcome.

 

Blog Articles

Most Recent

By Date

Tags

Clean Transportation, Electric Vehicles, Policy & Regulation, Renewable Energy, Smart Energy Practice, Smart Energy Program, Smart Grid Practice, Smart Transportation Practice, Smart Transportation Program, Utility Innovations

By Author


{"userID":"","pageName":"Blog","path":"\/blog?page=3","date":"3\/2\/2015"}