Navigant Research Blog

Urban Population Growth Drives the Need for Smart Cities

— July 15, 2014

The latest update from the United Nations on global urbanization trends is a powerful reminder of the most important of all drivers for smart city development: population growth.  World Urbanization Prospects, the 2014 revision reaffirms the core findings of previous studies but also further highlights the dramatic changes that will occur over the next 3 decades.

Today, the world’s urban population is close to 3.9 billion.  It will reach 6.3 billion in 2050, by which time two-thirds of the world’s population will be living in cities.   Nearly 90% of the increase in urban population will occur in Africa and Asia, and three countries alone – China, India, and Nigeria – will account for 37% of the 2.5 billion new urban dwellers.  Although more than half of the world’s urban citizens live in Asia today, the continent is only 48% urbanized and only 40% of Africans live in cities.  By 2050, Africa will be 54% urbanized and Asia will have reached 64%.

Percentage of Population in Urban Areas: 1950-2050

(Source: United Nations)

China and India Focus on Urban Infrastructure

China’s response to these pressures has been well-publicized.  The central government plans to invest up to $1 trillion in urban infrastructure during the 12th Five-Year Plan.  China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban and Rural Development (MOHURD) is currently assessing plans from 193 cities that are competing for up to $70 billion in investment to smart city development programs. In March 2014, the Ministry of Finance released details about the National New-type Urbanization Plan (2014-2020).  The government has stated a desire to develop a more inclusive path to urbanization that will benefit more citizens, improve the quality of life, and reduce the environmental impact of new developments.

India has taken longer than China to embrace urbanization as part of national policy.  As a result, despite the rapid growth of cities, like Mumbai and Delhi, and the global role of Indian technology suppliers, investment in the urban infrastructure has lagged economic development.  After decades of attempts to hold back the tide in favor of the traditional role of rural communities, there is a now a greater focus on the needs of the expanding urban population.

100 New Cities

India’s main smart city initiative to date has been the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC).  The development is intended to spur manufacturing and urbanization across a broad swath of northern India, with seven new cities planned and a total investment of $90 billion.  The new Indian government elected in May 2014 has put urban development at the core of its program and declared a target of building 100 new cities by 2022.  It has allocated around $1 billion for the program in its first budget.   According to M. Venkaiah Naidu, the new urban development minister, the planned cities will employ the latest technology and infrastructure, including advanced waste management and transportation systems.

The vast expansion in the urban population and growing expectations among city dwellers for better quality services and infrastructure will drive demand for smart city solutions across Asia Pacific over the next decade.  Navigant Research’s latest Smart Cities report estimates that a total of $63 billion will be invested in smart city technologies in Asia Pacific between 2014 and 2013, more than one-third of a global investment of almost $175 billion.

 

Wind Energy Innovation: Vortex Generators

— July 15, 2014

The wind energy industry has doggedly pursued higher energy yields and lower costs of energy with each successive generation of wind turbines.  As a result, the wind energy industry has lowered its costs by over 40% in just the past 4 years.  Innovations in wind turbine design, materials, and the sub-component supply chain are continually yielding advances – sometimes from the smallest places.

The mature aerospace industry has provided many complementary solutions to the wind industry in terms of design, materials, manufacturing, and the operation of large rotors.  Among these is the relatively recent introduction of vortex generators (VGs).  These small, simple fins, usually less than 8 centimeters tall and wide, energize airflow directionally around a blade when applied in multiples and keep it from erratically scattering as it passes over the blade surface.

The image below, from LM Windpower, the largest global independent blade manufacturer, shows the difference in airflow over a blade during recent testing.  The benefits are most pronounced close to the thickest section of the blade, near the blade root.

(Source: LM Windpower)

Lower Speed, More Energy

Lessons learned long ago in aviation show that planes with wings equipped with VGs are able to reach slower speeds before stalling out, as the VGs helped increase lift on the wings.  Wind blades operate similarly to aircraft wings, in that wings capture passing wind to create loft for flight, and blades capture passing wind as loft for mechanical turning power of the rotor.  The effects proven in aviation are also more pronounced at lower air speeds, when wing flap angles are more aggressively angled toward the passing wind.

Similarly, the effects of VGs appear to increase the productivity of a wind turbine more during medium and low wind speeds versus high wind speed environments.  This is complementary to the fact that, in recent years, the majority of new turbines installed in the mature markets of North America and Europe are designed for lower wind speed environments.

No wind blades presently are manufactured with VGs attached out of the factory, but a robust retrofit business has evolved among some independent service providers (ISPs) to install VGs during blade maintenance and inspection.

UpWind Solutions, an ISP based in North America, says it has installed 22,000 VGs across multiple wind turbine models and found that assumptions around a General Electric (GE) 1.5 MW turbine, with a power purchase agreement of $50/MWh and operating at a 40% annual capacity factor, would see an increase in annual energy production (AEP) of around 2.2% and recoup the cost of VG installation in 20 months.

From the Factory, Soon

Siemens has discovered the value of VGs and other aerodynamic add-ons and has incorporated these into aftermarket power curve upgrade services, similar to UpWind’s applications.  In early 2014, Siemens added VGs as a retrofit upgrade to the existing 175 wind turbines at the 630 MW London Array offshore wind project.  Siemens says the aerodynamic upgrades will yield about a 1.5% increase in AEP.

Independent blade manufacturer LM Windpower also offers VGs as an add-on service to blades.  With ISPs, turbine vendors and blade manufacturers offering VGs as add-on aftermarket services, it’s only a matter of time before vendors begin offering VGs with their standard blade offerings.

After all, they are already standard offerings on your average mallard duck.

 

The Humblest, Most Popular EV on the Planet

— July 15, 2014

Neighborhood electric vehicles (NEVs) are a less famous sub-segment of the more familiar class of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), such as the Nissan LEAF.  NEVs are low-speed EVs that are limited to a top speed of 25 mph and to roads that have maximum speed limits of 35 mph; they usually take the form of golf-cart-style vehicles.  Although they get less attention, and advertising, than their larger, faster cousins, NEVs are the most popular type of EVs in use worldwide.  Fleets, including airports, local governments, university campuses, retirement communities, and the military, are the principal users of the technology.  Navigant Research estimates that fleets account for at least 75% of the global NEV marketplace.

 

 (Source: GEM)

The primary market driver for NEVs is the low production cost and purchase price of the vehicle.  Most NEVs are priced between $8,000 and $14,000, compared to $28,980 for a full-sized BEV like the Nissan LEAF (excluding incentives).  The operating costs of NEVs are also very low, since they use electricity to charge batteries that are typically much smaller than those found in BEVs.

Half a Million Strong

While NEVs are affordable, and particularly convenient in fleet applications, they have their flaws.  Being limited to streets with a maximum speed limit of 35 mph is enough to deter the majority of private consumers, who expect full access to all roads.  Combined with poor performance in snow and cold weather, safety concerns (NEVs usually have less safety equipment than full-speed vehicles), and short battery ranges (25-30 miles per charge), the market for NEVs will remain with niche fleets for the foreseeable future.  Nonetheless, this has proved successful, as significantly more NEVs are in use worldwide than BEVs.  Navigant Research estimates that globally 229,166 light duty BEVs were in use by the end of 2013, less than half the number of NEVs, at 542,134.

As battery prices come down and gasoline prices continue to rise, NEVs will likely increase their market share within fleet applications.  Meanwhile, some companies are also looking into using NEVs for carsharing programs.  In this scenario, the vehicles would be used mostly for connecting travel purposes – from homes to public transit stations, for example, or from stations to offices.  Additionally, NEVs are also considered to be the frontrunners for autonomous vehicle technologies – mainly because low-speed EVs are safer and more suitable than full-sized vehicles for testing these experimental technologies.

 

Emerging Broadband Technology Offers New Connectivity for Utilities

— July 15, 2014

In the battle for smart grid communications standards, yet another contender is now on the horizon, promising ultra fast data speeds over existing copper wires.  And while telephone companies (telcos) are the primary target market for the G.Fast standard, chipset developer Sckipio believes that the standard will be attractive to utilities for smart grid applications, in addition to broadband connectivity and over-the-top applications like video.

Designed to help telcos cost-effectively compete with cable broadband and very expensive fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) connectivity, G.Fast employs vectoring technology to eliminate interference (cross-talk) between multiple wire pairs in a single copper cable.  The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) instituted the standard in 2010, and recent field trials have shown promising results.

Belgacom has trialed the standard with 3,000 customers and reported a nearly four-fold increase in access speeds over copper.  This makes the technology a reasonable alternative to FTTH, particularly in urban areas with extensive copper infrastructure already in place.  In multi-dwelling units with extensive in-wall phone lines, the use of existing copper lines represents enormous cost-saving, as well as a speed-to-market advantage over running new fiber.

Coming Soon

G.fast is designed for use in the last-mile – in practice, over distances of less than 250 meters.  This allows fiber to reach as far as the basement of an apartment block, for example, eliminating the need to rewire the whole building and still allowing a notable acceleration in access speeds.  G.fast requires a short loop (less than 250 meters) and operates at higher frequencies than digital subscriber line transmissions, which also run over existing copper wires, increasing the risk of cross-talk unless the new vectoring technology is employed.

Sckipio says it has seen interest in Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific, and expects to see telco deployment begin in earnest in 2015.

Tel Aviv, Israel-based Sckipio was founded in 2012, and in December 2013 announced a $10 million venture capital round with Gemini Israel Ventures, Genesis Partners, Amiti Capital, and Aviv Ventures.  The company  is building ultra high-speed G.fast broadband modem semiconductors.

The G.fast standard is still working its way through ITU approval, and a few technical hurdles remain:  Powering the equipment and the unbundling of sub-loops is something that different countries are treating differently.

G.fast represents a great leap forward for telcos struggling with legacy copper networks.  As a viable alternative for utilities seeking connectivity for smart grid applications, it is likely still a couple of years out.  Given its very high data transfer speeds, however, it may well present a new alternative for utilities needing visibility and control at the grid edge — while also providing telephone companies with an opportunity to ramp up their business in the utility/smart grid vertical.

 

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