November 17, 2010
Transit agencies operate lines of buses, rail, and sometimes both. As they look to reduce their carbon emissions, many are seeking forms of mass transit that have lower emissions either from alternative fuel buses or electric rail. According to a new report from Pike Research, the increasing focus on cleaner mass transit systems will drive particularly strong growth in adoption of hybrid electric and natural gas buses, as an alternative to traditional diesel buses, over the next several years.
The cleantech market intelligence firm forecasts that worldwide deliveries of hybrid buses will nearly triple from 5,514 vehicles in 2010 to 16,328 units in 2016. During the same period, natural gas bus deliveries will increase 61% to 15,937 vehicles. Fuel cell buses, while still rare and expensive, are likely to see some modest increases as well, with deliveries expected to reach 1,083 vehicles in 2016. Pike Research also anticipates moderate compound annual growth rates (CAGRs) of between 1% and 2% in bus rapid transit (BRT) vehicles and light rail, rapid transit, and commuter rail systems.
“The public transportation market has been strong in the last couple of years due to increased government spending aimed at bolstering the economy,” says senior analyst Dave Hurst. “While 2010 and 2011 are set up to be a bit of a hangover from that spending as most governments slow investment to rein in debt, transit agency interest in alternative fuel buses, and to a lesser extent BRT and rail systems, will remain bright spots in the global mass transit market.”
Hurst adds that the Asia Pacific region will have the largest demand for buses and rolling stock to keep pace with the transportation needs of fast-growing urban areas. Meanwhile, Latin America will be a center of activity for BRT vehicle deliveries, accounting for 43% of the global market by 2016.
Pike Research’s study, “Clean Mass Transit”, examines the opportunities and challenges within the mass transit vehicle market. The report provides a comprehensive analysis of mass transit vehicles, including diesel technology, hybrid battery technology, rail electrification, regenerative braking, government emissions regulations, emerging markets, and key drivers of market growth. The report includes forecasts through 2016 for transit buses, alternative fuel buses, BRT, light rail, rapid transit, and commuter rail by world region. Key market players are also profiled. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the firm’s website.
Pike Research is a market research and consulting firm that provides in-depth analysis of global clean technology markets. The company’s research methodology combines supply-side industry analysis, end-user primary research and demand assessment, and deep examination of technology trends to provide a comprehensive view of the Smart Energy, Clean Transportation, Clean Industry, and Building Efficiency sectors. For more information, visit www.navigantresearch.com or call +1.303.997.4619.