Autonomous Vehicles Will Surpass 95 Million in Annual Sales by 2035

August 21, 2013

Combinations of advanced driver assistance features, such as adaptive speed control, automatic emergency braking, and lane departure warning, are now being brought together in some 2014 vehicle models, making semi-autonomous driving a reality in many markets for the first time.  Increasing production volumes and technology improvements, leading to cost reductions, are now making it feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capabilities.  According to a new report from Navigant Research, sales of autonomous vehicles will grow from fewer than 8,000 annually in 2020 to 95.4 million in 2035, representing 75 percent of all light-duty vehicle sales by that time.

“Fully autonomous vehicles are unlikely to reach the market suddenly,” says David Alexander, senior research analyst with Navigant Research.  “Instead, progressively more capable systems that can assume control of certain aspects of driving will be introduced gradually.  The first features will most likely be self-parking, traffic jam assistance, and freeway cruising — well-defined situations that lend themselves to control by upgraded versions of today’s onboard systems.”

One of the main barriers to fully automated vehicles driving is the legal requirement in many countries that all vehicles must have a driver in control at all times.  Some U.S. states and European countries have begun to issue licenses to companies to conduct testing of autonomous driving features on public highways under controlled conditions, according to the report.  However, before full autonomous driving capability becomes available, liability issues must be clarified.  Automakers will be reluctant to assume responsibility for not only supplying the vehicles, but also safely operating them.

The report, “Autonomous Vehicles”, provides a detailed examination of the emerging market for advanced driver assistance systems leading to semi-autonomous and autonomous driving. The report includes profiles of the leading vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, along with an analysis of the drivers and inhibitors for sales of these vehicles.  Forecasts for revenue and sales volumes, segmented by region, extend through 2035.  The report also includes a review of the core driver assistance technologies that make self-driving vehicles possible.  An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

Contact: Richard Martin

+1.303.493.5483

richard.martin@navigant.com

* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, “Autonomous Vehicles,” is a summary and reflects Navigant Research’s current expectations based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Navigant Research nor Navigant undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.

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