Global Road Transportation Energy Consumption is Likely to Rise Slightly with Greater Penetration of Automated Vehicles

Impacts of automated driving systems on fuel consumption will be mixed, due to a shift from public transit to light duty vehicles

A new report from Navigant Research highlights how emerging automated mobility systems are expected to affect regional transportation fuel consumption during the next two decades, with global forecasts for light duty vehicle (LDV) and medium and heavy duty vehicle (MHDV) consumption, segmented by region, fuel, and scenario, through 2035.

Developments in vehicle electrification, connectivity, and shared and automated driving are creating potential for innovative new business models in transportation services. However, the effects of these automated systems on fuel consumption will vary by region, with some experiencing greater use of passenger travel through LDVs, running counter to policies that displace oil as the leading transportation energy resource. Click to tweet: According to a new report from @NavigantRSRCH, total global road transportation energy consumption is likely to rise slightly with greater penetration of automated vehicles.

“In certain markets, automated driving systems promise to pull demand away from energy efficient public transit options to less efficient passenger car travel,” says Scott Shepard, senior research analyst with Navigant Research. “The result is likely increased transportation sector energy consumption unless concerted efforts are made to tie vehicle automation to electrification.”

In markets with a high dependence on LDVs for personal travel, however, automated mobility systems are expected to reduce energy consumption. According to the report, vehicle efficiencies borne from automated technologies are expected to mitigate system inefficiencies created from displacing public transit systems.

The report, Market Data: Global Fuels Consumption, provides an update to Navigant Research’s Global Fuels Consumption model, with a focus on how emerging automated mobility systems (AMSs) may affect regional fuels markets. The study assesses the potential impacts to the fuels markets through four scenarios of AMS penetration (no adoption, low, mid, and high). Global forecasts for road fuel consumption for LDVs and medium and heavy duty vehicles (MHDVs), segmented by region, fuel, and scenario, extend through 2035. Although this report focuses on the effects of automated technologies on passenger vehicle energy consumption, forecasts also include the fuel consumption of goods vehicles. An Executive Summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.

Contact: Lindsay Funicello-Paul

+1.781.270.8456

lindsay.funicello.paul@navigant.com

* The information contained in this press release concerning the report, Market Data: Global Fuels Consumption, is a summary and reflects Navigant Research’s current expectations based on market data and trend analysis. Market predictions and expectations are inherently uncertain and actual results may differ materially from those contained in this press release or the report. Please refer to the full report for a complete understanding of the assumptions underlying the report’s conclusions and the methodologies used to create the report. Neither Navigant Research nor Navigant undertakes any obligation to update any of the information contained in this press release or the report.

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