Automotive Fuel Efficiency Technologies

Powertrain and Body Engineering Technologies for Improved Fuel Economy:
Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Increasingly strict global standards to limit CO2 and other greenhouse gases will be the most important factor that drives global automotive manufacturers to improve the fuel efficiency of their vehicles. With rising liquid fuel costs, consumer demand also supports the need for better fuel economy. Reducing vehicle weight allows the maintenance of driving performance with smaller engines, but safety standards must still be maintained. Automotive manufacturers are looking for ways to achieve the fuel savings of hybrid vehicles at a significantly lower cost premium.

Multiple factors are driving manufacturers to produce more efficient vehicles. Global government standards are converging, and there are financial penalties for failing to meet them in some regions. Consumers are demanding better fuel economy from new vehicles, though demand varies depending on the vehicle segment. Meanwhile, global new vehicle production is expected to increase slowly but steadily through 2025, especially in the Asia Pacific region. Although the use of alternative fuels and electric power is expected to continue growing, gasoline is anticipated to remain the leading fuel, with a strong trend toward stop-start vehicles. According to Navigant Research, global light duty vehicle (LDV) sales are expected to grow from 84 million in 2014 to 109 million in 2025.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the emerging global market for technologies that improve fuel economy. The study examines the consumer demand and regulatory background related to features and lightweight materials for increasing fuel efficiency in vehicles. Global market forecasts for LDV sales, segmented by powertrain, region, and number of cylinders, extend through 2025. Additional forecasts by region are provided for the volumes and associated revenue of key fuel efficient systems and materials. The report also examines the approach of the leading vehicle manufacturers, suppliers, and industry players and evaluates how the market for lighter and more efficient vehicle technologies will evolve.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the market forces driving the need for better fuel economy?
  • Which technologies are being implemented to make vehicles more fuel efficient?
  • How different are the six world regions in terms of choice of powertrain?
  • What is the potential size of the market for lighter materials for light duty vehicles (LDVs)?
  • How quickly will turbocharging and stop-start systems be implemented?
  • When will downsized engines become preferred in each world region?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Fleet managers
  • Materials suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Overview

1.2  Market Issues

1.3  Technology Issues

1.4  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues   

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Fuel Economy Legislation

2.2.1   North America

   2.2.1.1  United States

      2.2.1.1.1.  Model Years 2012 to 2016

      2.2.1.1.2.  MY 2017 to MY 2025

      2.2.1.1.3.  Heavy Duty Vehicles

      2.2.1.1.4.  Costs and Benefits of CAFE Standards

   2.2.1.2  Canada

2.2.2   Europe

2.2.3   Asia Pacific

   2.2.3.1  China

      2.2.3.1.1.  LDVs

      2.2.3.1.2.  HDVs

   2.2.3.2  Japan

      2.2.3.2.1.  LDVs

      2.2.3.2.2.  HDV

   2.2.3.3  India

   2.2.3.4  South Korea

2.2.4   Rest of the World

2.3  Consumer Attitudes and Preferences

2.4  Emissions Legislation

2.4.1   North America

   2.4.1.1  United States

      2.4.1.1.1.  MY 2012 to MY 2016

      2.4.1.1.2.  MY 2017 to MY 2025

      2.4.1.1.3.  HDVs

      2.4.1.1.4.  Zero Emissions Vehicle Mandates

   2.4.1.2  Canada

      2.4.1.2.1.  MY 2011 to MY 2016

      2.4.1.2.2.  MY 2017 to MY 2025

      2.4.1.2.3.  HDVs

2.4.2   Europe

   2.4.2.1  LDVs

   2.4.2.2  HDVs

   2.4.2.3  Phasing-In of Requirements

   2.4.2.4  Fines for Non-Compliance

2.4.3   Asia Pacific

   2.4.3.1  China

      2.4.3.1.1.  LDVs

      2.4.3.1.2.  HDVs

   2.4.3.2  Japan

      2.4.3.2.1.  LDVs

      2.4.3.2.2.  HDVs

   2.4.3.3  India

   2.4.3.4  South Korea

2.4.4   Rest of the World

2.5  Global Comparisons: Major Automotive Markets

2.5.1   LD Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions

2.5.2   Enforcement

2.5.3   HD Fuel Economy and GHG Emissions

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Introduction

3.2  Hybrid Options

3.2.1   Stop-Start

3.2.2   Mild Hybrid

3.2.3   Full Parallel Hybrid

3.2.4   Series Hybrid

3.2.5   PHEV

3.2.6   Hydraulic Hybrid

3.3  Energy Recovery and Storage

3.3.1   Battery

3.3.2   Ultracapacitor

3.3.3   Flywheel

3.3.4   Hydraulic

3.4  Fuel

3.4.1   Gasoline

3.4.2   Diesel

3.4.3   Natural Gas

3.4.4   Propane

3.4.5   Ethanol

3.4.6   Electricity

3.4.7   Hydrogen

3.5  Engine

3.5.1   Number of Cylinders

3.5.2   Fuel Injection

3.5.3   Higher Compression

3.5.4   Valve Actuation

3.5.5   Internal Engine Friction

3.5.6   Turbocharging

3.5.7   Supercharging

3.5.8   EGR

3.5.9   Engine Materials

3.6  Transmissions

3.6.1   Manual versus Automatic

3.6.2   Dual-Clutch

3.6.3   Multiple Ratios

3.7  Chassis

3.7.1   Component Weights

3.7.2   Brakes

3.7.3   All-Wheel Drive

3.7.4   Tires

3.7.5   Accessory Drives

3.7.6   Energy Recovery

3.8  Body

3.8.1   Mass Reduction

   3.8.1.1  Steel

   3.8.1.2  Aluminum

   3.8.1.3  Magnesium

   3.8.1.4  Carbon Fiber

   3.8.1.5  Glass Fiber

3.8.2   Design Considerations

   3.8.2.1  Structural Stiffness

   3.8.2.2  Crash Energy Absorption

   3.8.2.3  Noise, Vibration, and Harshness

   3.8.2.4  Aerodynamics

   3.8.2.5  Repair

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  OEMs

4.1.1   Audi AG

4.1.2   BMW AG

4.1.3   Daimler AG

4.1.4   Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV

4.1.5   Ford Motor Company

4.1.6   GM

4.1.7   Honda Motor Company

4.1.8   Hyundai Motor Company

4.1.9   Mazda Motor Corp.

4.1.10   Mitsubishi Motors Corp.

4.1.11   Nissan Motor Company

4.1.12   PSA

4.1.13   Renault S.A.

4.1.14   Toyota Motor Corp.

4.1.15   Volvo Car Corp.

4.1.16   VW

4.2  Tier One Suppliers

4.2.1   Aisin Group

4.2.2   BorgWarner

4.2.3   Continental AG

4.2.4   Delphi Automotive

4.2.5   DENSO

4.2.6   Honeywell Turbo Technologies

4.2.7   Johnson Controls

4.2.8   Magna International

4.2.9   Robert Bosch

4.2.10   Schaeffler Technologies

4.2.11   TRW Automotive

4.2.12   Valeo

4.2.13   ZF Friedrichshafen AG

4.3  Materials Suppliers

4.3.1   Alcoa

4.3.2   ArcelorMittal

4.3.3   Novelis

4.3.4   SGL Group

4.4  Other Suppliers

4.4.1   DeltaWing Technologies

4.4.2   GKN Hybrid Power

4.4.3   Torotrak Group

5. Market Forecasts  

5.1  Global LDV Market

5.2  Regional Sales by Powertrain

5.2.1   North America

5.5  Engine Size Trend by Region

5.5.1   North America

5.5.2   Western Europe

5.5.3   Eastern Europe

5.5.4   Asia Pacific

5.5.5   Latin America

5.5.6   Middle East & Africa

5.6 Conclusions and Recommendations

5.2.2   Western Europe

5.2.3   Eastern Europe

5.2.4   Asia Pacific

5.2.5   Latin America

5.2.6   Middle East & Africa

5.3  Engine Technology

5.3.1   Turbochargers

5.3.2   Starter-Alternators

5.4  Lightweight Materials

5.4.1   Aluminum

5.4.2   Magnesium

5.4.3   Carbon Fiber

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Historical and Future Fuel Economy Targets for Passenger Vehicles by Region, Normalized to CAFE Test Cycle, World Markets: 2010-2025
  • Historical and Future CO2 Emissions Targets for Passenger Vehicles by Region, Normalized to CAFE Test Cycle, World Markets: 2010-2025
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Market Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, North America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Western Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Eastern Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Asia Pacific: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Latin America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Middle East & Africa: 2014-2025
  • Annual Sales Volume of Turbochargers by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Turbochargers by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Sales Volume of Starter-Alternators by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Starter-Alternators by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Volume of Aluminum Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Aluminum Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Volume of Magnesium Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Market Value of Magnesium Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Volume of Carbon Fiber Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Carbon Fiber Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, North America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Western Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Eastern Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Asia Pacific: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Latin America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Middle East & Africa:  2014-2025
  • Comparison of Phase I (Industry Standard) and Phase II (National Standard) for Heavy Duty Vehicles, China
  • Regulatory Enforcement Mechanisms: Major Automotive Markets

List of Tables

  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Average Required Fuel Economy, CAFE Standards, by Vehicle Type, United States: 2012-2016
  • Fuel Economy Targets by Vehicle Type, United States: 2016-2025
  • Combination Tractor Fuel Economy Standards by Vehicle Class and Roof Height, United States: MY 2017
  • Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards by Vehicle Class, United States: MY 2017
  • Fuel Economy Petrol Targets by Vehicle Type, Europe: 2015-2021
  • Fuel Economy Diesel Targets by Vehicle Type, Europe: 2015-2021
  • Fuel Economy Targets by Vehicle Type, China: 2008-2020
  • Fuel Economy Targets by Vehicle Type, Japan: 2010-2020
  • ContractHireAndLeasing.com Survey, United Kingdom: 2014
  • Fleet Average Vehicle Emissions History and Targets by Vehicle Type, United States: 2012-2016
  • Vehicle Emissions Targets by Vehicle Type, United States: 2016-2025
  • Vehicle Emissions Targets by Vehicle Type, Europe: 2007-2021
  • CO2 Emissions Targets by Vehicle Type, Japan: 2010-2020
  • Historical and Future Fuel Economy Targets for Passenger Vehicles by Region, Normalized to CAFE Test Cycle, World Markets: 2010-2025
  • Historical and Future CO2 Emissions Targets for Passenger Vehicles by Region, Normalized to CAFE Test Cycle, World Markets: 2010-2025
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Market Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, North America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Western Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Eastern Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Asia Pacific: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Latin America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Powertrain, Middle East & Africa: 2014-2025
  • Annual Sales Volume of Turbochargers by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Turbochargers by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Sales Volume of Starter-Alternators by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Starter-Alternators by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Volume of Aluminum Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Aluminum Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Volume of Magnesium Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Magnesium Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Volume of Carbon Fiber Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Annual Market Value of Carbon Fiber Used by Region, World Markets: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, North America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Western Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Eastern Europe: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Asia Pacific: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Latin America: 2014-2025
  • Light Duty Gasoline/Diesel Vehicle Sales by Number of Cylinders, Middle East & Africa: 2014-2025

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