Autonomous Vehicles

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems and the Evolution of Self-Driving Functionality: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The first combinations of advanced driver assistance features, now available in some 2016 vehicle models, offer semi-autonomous driving under specific circumstances. Cars will soon have the ability to cruise on freeways and safely navigate traffic jams with minimal driver input. As a result of increasing volumes and technology improvements, as well as cost reductions, it is now feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability.

The industry consensus is that more comprehensive self-driving features will be brought to market by 2020. Such features will enable more complex automated driving, but still require some supervision by a competent driver. However, the obstacles to autonomous functionality are not all technological. While more testing is still needed to develop robustness, the biggest practical hurdles to clear before the rollout of self-driving vehicles to the public are related to liability, regulation, and legislation. In the long term, though, autonomous vehicle technology has the potential to institute major change in personal mobility, particularly in large cities. According to Navigant Research, 85 million autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to be sold annually around the world by 2035.

This Navigant Research report provides a detailed examination of the emerging market for different levels of fully and semi-autonomous driving. The study provides a discussion of the potential benefits, demand drivers, inhibitors, and technology issues related to advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles, as well as profiles of the leading vehicle manufacturers and suppliers. Global market forecasts by region for volumes of vehicles with Level 2, 3, and 4 autonomy, along with the associated revenue, extend through 2035. The report also includes an assessment of how quickly the percentage of vehicles with some autonomous capability will grow within the overall parc of vehicles on the road in each of the six major world regions.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the key levels of vehicle automation?
  • When will the first autonomous vehicles of each level be available?
  • Which will be the first self-driving features to come to market?
  • What are the major benefits of autonomous vehicles?
  • Which factors must be resolved for implementation to happen?
  • How fast will annual sales grow and how will this translate into on-the-road penetration?
  • How much revenue can be expected from the new autonomous driving systems?
  • Who are the key players in different aspects of the overall market for autonomous vehicles?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Insurance companies
  • Commercial fleet managers
  • Taxi operators
  • City managers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Autonomous Vehicle Technology Overview

1.2  Key Market Drivers

1.3  Technology Issues

1.4  Forecast Highlights

2. Market Issues   

2.1  Vision for the Long-Term Future

2.1.1  Consumer Market

2.1.2  Fleet Market

2.1.3  Other Markets for Autonomous Vehicles

2.1.4  Evolution

2.1.5  Revolution

2.2  Benefits of Fully Autonomous Vehicles

2.2.1  Traffic Flow

2.2.2  Eliminating Collisions

2.2.3  Productivity

2.2.4  Vehicle and Ridesharing

2.2.5  Smart Cities

2.3  Barriers to Implementation

2.3.1  Customer Concerns

2.3.2  Legislation and Government Activity

2.3.3  Insurance and Liability

2.3.4  Cyber Security

2.3.5  Changing OEM Business Model

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Underlying Technology

3.1.1  ADAS

3.1.2  Vehicle-to-External

3.1.3  Sensor Fusion

3.1.4  Navigation Systems

3.2  Levels of Autonomy

3.2.1  Freeway Driving Mode (Level 2)

3.2.2  Traffic Jam Mode (Level 2)

3.2.3  Self-Driving Mode (Level 3)

3.2.4  Autonomous Driving (Level 4)

3.3  Pilot Programs and Testing

3.3.1  United Kingdom

   3.3.1.1  Bristol

   3.3.1.2  Greenwich

   3.3.1.3  Milton Keynes and Coventry

3.3.2  Mainland Europe

   3.3.2.1  EU Projects

   3.3.2.2  France

   3.3.2.3  Germany

   3.3.2.4  Netherlands

   3.3.2.5  Sweden

3.3.3  United States

   3.3.3.1  California

   3.3.3.2  Michigan

3.3.4  Asia Pacific

   3.3.4.1  Australia

   3.3.4.2  China

   3.3.4.3  Japan

4. Key Industry Players    

4.1  OEMs

4.1.1  Audi AG

4.1.2  BMW AG

4.1.3  Daimler AG

4.1.4  FCA

4.1.5  Ford Motor Company

4.1.6  GM

4.1.7  Honda Motor Company

4.1.8  Hyundai

4.1.9  Jaguar Land Rover

4.1.10   Kia

4.1.11   Mazda

4.1.12   Mitsubishi Motors Corp

4.1.13   Nissan Motor Company

4.1.14   PSA Peugeot Citroën

4.1.15   Renault S.A.

4.1.16   Tesla Motors

4.1.17   Toyota Motor Corp.

4.1.18   Volvo Car Corp.

4.1.19   VW

4.2  Major Suppliers

4.2.1  AISIN Group

4.2.2  Autoliv Inc.

4.2.3  Continental AG

4.2.4  Delphi Automotive

4.2.5  DENSO Corp.

4.2.6  Gentex Corp.

4.2.7  Harman International Industries

4.2.8  Hella KGaA Hueck & Co.

4.2.9  Hyundai Mobis

4.2.10   Magna International

4.2.11   Robert Bosch GmbH

4.2.12   Takata Corp.

4.2.13   Valeo

4.2.14   ZF Friedrichshafen AG

4.3  Universities

4.3.1  Carnegie Mellon

4.3.2  Cornell University

4.3.3  Freie Universität Berlin

4.3.4  Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan

4.3.5  Massachusetts Institute of Technology

4.3.6  Oxford University

4.3.7  Stanford University

4.3.8  University of Michigan

4.3.9  University of Parma VisLab

4.3.10   Virginia Tech

4.4  Hardware Companies

4.5  Software Companies

4.6  Other Industry Participants

5. Market Forecasts  

5.1  Global Forecasts

5.2  Regional Technology Forecasts by Autonomy Level

5.2.1  Level 2

5.2.2  Level 3

5.2.3  Level 4

5.3  Vehicle Parc Forecast by Level and Region

5.3.1  North America Parc

5.3.2  Western Europe Parc

5.3.3  Eastern Europe Parc

5.3.4  Asia Pacific Parc

5.3.5  Latin America Parc

5.3.6  Middle East & Africa Parc

5.4  Societal Benefits

5.5  The Effect of Autonomous Fleets in Cities—North America

5.6  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 2 Autonomous Driving Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Level 2 Autonomous Driving Systems Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 2 Autonomous Driving Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 3 Autonomous Driving Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Level 3 Autonomous Driving Systems Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 3 Autonomous Driving Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 4 Autonomous Driving Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Level 4 Autonomous Driving Systems Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 4 Autonomous Driving Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, North America: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Western Europe: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Latin America: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Middle East & Africa: 2015-2035
  • Penetration of Autonomous L2 to L4 Systems by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Alternative Autonomous Vehicle Model Vehicle Sales by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • Alternative Autonomous Vehicle Model Vehicle Parc by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • ADAS Applications

List of Tables

  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Examples of ADASs in Production by Country, United States and United Kingdom: 2015 Models
  • Estimated Market Price by Autonomous Driving Feature, World Markets: 2015
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 2 Autonomous Driving Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 2 Autonomous Driving Sales Penetration by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Level 2 Autonomous Driving Systems Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 2 Autonomous Driving Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 2 Autonomous Driving Parc Penetration by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 3 Autonomous Driving Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 3 Autonomous Driving Sales Penetration by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Level 3 Autonomous Driving Systems Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 3 Autonomous Driving Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 3 Autonomous Driving Parc Penetration by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 4 Autonomous Driving Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 4 Autonomous Driving Sales Penetration by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Level 4 Autonomous Driving Systems Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 4 Autonomous Driving Parc by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicles with Level 4 Autonomous Driving Parc Penetration by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, North America: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc Penetration by Autonomous Driving Level, North America: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Western Europe: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc Penetration by Autonomous Driving Level, Western Europe: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc Penetration by Autonomous Driving Level, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc Penetration by Autonomous Driving Level, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Latin America: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc Penetration by Autonomous Driving Level, Latin America: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, Middle East & Africa: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc Penetration by Autonomous Driving Level, Middle East & Africa: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc by Autonomous Driving Level, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Vehicle Parc Breakdown by Autonomous Driving Level, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Penetration of Autonomous L2 to L4 Systems by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Alternative Autonomous Vehicle Model Vehicle Sales by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • Alternative Autonomous Vehicle Model Vehicle Parc by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • Computer Hardware Companies
  • Software Companies
  • Other Industry Participants

Report Details

  • Pages: 94
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    62
  • Release Date: 3Q 2015

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