Autonomous Vehicles

Self-Driving Vehicles, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems,
and Autonomous Driving Features: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Combinations of advanced driver assistance features that can enable semi-autonomous driving are now being brought to market for the first time. Increasing volumes and technology improvements mean that it is feasible to install the multiple sensors necessary for such capability thanks to cost reductions. Simple automated driving functions such as keeping in lane while adjusting speed to the vehicle in front are currently being introduced. The industry consensus is that the first more comprehensive self-driving features will be brought to market by 2020, but significant hurdles remain. However, the obstacles are not all technological. Due to advances in computing power and software development, challenges such as image processing and sensor fusion are now ready for production use, and supervised decision-making software is being trialed on public roads. While more testing is still needed to develop robustness, the biggest practical hurdles before rollout to the public are those of liability, regulation, and legislation. In the long term, the technology has the potential to institute major changes in personal mobility, particularly in large cities. Navigant Research forecasts that 94.7 million autonomous-capable vehicles will be sold annually around the world by 2035. This Navigant Research report analyzes the emerging global market for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) leading to semi-autonomous and autonomous driving. The study provides a discussion of the benefits of self-driving vehicles and barriers to implementation. Global market forecasts for autonomous-capable vehicle sales and volumes of key autonomous driving features and associated revenue, segmented by region and feature, extend through 2035. The report also provides a review of the core driver assistance technologies that make self-driving vehicles possible, as well as in-depth profiles of the leading industry players.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the key technologies for autonomous driving?
  • Which will be the first self-driving features to come to market?
  • When will the first autonomous vehicles be available?
  • What are the major benefits of autonomous vehicles?
  • How fast will the market for autonomous driving technologies grow?
  • How much revenue can be expected from autonomous driving features?
  • Who are the key players working on autonomous driving technologies?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Vehicle manufacturers
  • City managers
  • Fleet managers
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Self-Driving Vehicles

1.2  Market Drivers

1.3  Technology Issues

1.4  Forecast Highlights

2. Market Drivers  

2.1  Vision for the Long Term

2.1.1   Consumer Market

2.1.2   Fleet Market

2.1.3   Neighborhood Delivery

2.1.4   Evolution

2.1.5   Revolution

2.2  Benefits of Fully Autonomous Vehicles

2.2.1   Traffic Flow

2.2.2   Eliminating Collisions

2.2.3   Productivity

2.2.4   Carsharing

2.2.5   Smart Cities

2.3  Barriers to Implementation

2.3.1   Customer Concerns

2.3.2   Legislation and Government Activity

2.3.3   Insurance and Liability

2.3.4   OEMs Adopting a New Business Model

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Underlying Technology

3.1.1   Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

3.1.2   Vehicle-to-X

3.1.3   Navigation Systems

3.2  Levels of Autonomy

3.2.1   Adaptive Speed Control

3.2.2   Automatic Emergency Braking

3.2.3   Automatic Lane Maintain

3.2.4   Freeway Driving Mode

3.2.5   Traffic Jam Mode

3.2.6   Autonomous Parking System

3.2.7   Self-Driving Mode

3.2.8   Autonomous Driving

3.3  High-Level Software

3.4  Hardware Demands

3.5  Pilot Programs and Testing

3.5.1   Milton Keynes

3.5.2   Gothenburg

3.5.3   Michigan

3.5.4   Netherlands

3.5.5   New York

3.5.6   Human Factors of Automated Driving

3.5.7   Google

3.5.8   Zoox

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  OEMs

4.1.1   Audi AG

4.1.2   BMW AG

4.1.3   Daimler AG

4.1.4   Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV

4.1.5   Ford Motor Company

4.1.6   GM

4.1.7   Honda Motor Company

4.1.8   Hyundai

4.1.9   Mazda

4.1.10   Mitsubishi Motors Corp.

4.1.11   Nissan Motor Company

4.1.12   PSA Peugeot Citroën

4.1.13   Renault S.A.

4.1.14   Tesla Motors

4.1.15   Toyota Motor Corp.

4.1.16   Volvo Car Corp.

4.1.17   VW

4.2  Major Suppliers

4.2.1   Aisin

4.2.2   Autoliv Inc.

4.2.3   Continental AG

4.2.4   Delphi Automotive

4.2.5   DENSO Corp.

4.2.6   Harman International Industries

4.2.7   Hella KGaA Hueck & Co.

4.2.8   Magna International

4.2.9   Robert Bosch GmbH

4.2.10   TRW Automotive

4.2.11   Valeo

4.3  Computer Hardware and Software Companies

4.3.1   Altera Corp.

4.3.2   Autotalks

4.3.3   Cisco Systems

4.3.4   Cohda Wireless

4.3.5   Covisint

4.3.6   Freescale Semiconductor

4.3.7   Google Inc.

4.3.8   Intel

4.3.9   Microsoft

4.3.10   Mobileye

4.3.11   Nvidia

4.3.12   QNX Software Systems Ltd.

4.3.13   Texas Instruments

4.4  Other Industry Participants

4.4.1   2getthere

4.4.2   Connected Vehicle Trade Association

4.4.3   Freie Universität Berlin

4.4.4   Kungliga Tekniska Högskolan

4.4.5   Ultra Global

4.4.6   Other Organizations

5. Market Forecasts  

5.1  Global Forecasts

5.2  Regional Forecasts

5.3  Technology Forecasts

5.3.1   ASC

5.3.2   AEB

5.3.3   ALM

5.3.4   FDM

5.3.5   TJM

5.3.6   APS

5.3.7   SDM

5.3.8   Autonomous Driving

5.4  Market Value

5.5  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Penetration Rate by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Take Rate Percentage by Autonomous Driving Feature, World Markets: 2012-2035
  • ASC Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • AEB Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • ALM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • FDM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • TJM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • APS Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • SDM Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Features Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Western Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Latin America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Middle East & Africa: 2015-2035
  • ADAS Applications

List of Tables

  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • ADAS in Production by Country, United States and United Kingdom: 2014 Models*
  • Estimated Market Price by Autonomous Driving Feature, World Markets: 2015
  • Autonomous Driving Features Market Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Features Value by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Market Percentage by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous-Capable Vehicle Penetration Rate by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Adaptive Speed Control Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Automatic Emergency Braking Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Automatic Lane Maintain Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Freeway Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Traffic Jam Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Parking System Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Self-Driving Mode Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Fitments by Region, World Markets: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, North America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Western Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Eastern Europe: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Asia Pacific: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Latin America: 2015-2035
  • Autonomous Driving Feature Fitments by Feature, Middle East & Africa: 2015-2035
  • Other Organizations Active in Some Aspect of Autonomous Driving

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