Aviation and Marine Biofuels

Advanced Drop-In Biofuels for Commercial Aviation, Marine Shipping,
and Military Applications: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Viewed as a game changer in the race to commercialize advanced biofuels, aviation and marine biofuels represent a very significant opportunity for emerging producers in the advanced biofuels industry. Demand for advanced biofuels produced from sustainable, non-food feedstocks is largely driven by a need to hedge against increases in fuel costs, compliance with emerging emissions regulations, and certification of advanced biofuels pathways. Lacking a viable alternative to liquid fuels, aircraft manufacturers, turbine engine manufacturers, and commercial airlines have partnered in flying more than 600,000 miles powered by biofuels since 2008. Additional concerns around energy security and combat readiness has led to a deepening interest within the U.S. military.

Although the emerging aviation and marine biofuels market has expanded rapidly in recent years, feedstock constraints and high capital investment requirements will need to be overcome for the industry to meet aspirational growth targets. Led by North America, installed nameplate production capacity is expected to reach 3.3 billion gallons by 2024, representing 1.5% of total aviation and marine fuel consumption. Navigant Research forecasts that a cumulative total of 18.2 billion gallons to 19.6 billion gallons of renewable drop-in aviation and marine biofuels could be produced between 2014 and 2024, dependent on the two refinery scenarios analyzed in the report.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts and market sizing for nameplate production capacity and production volumes for advanced aviation and marine biofuels. Forecasts are segmented by geography, conversion platform, and fuel type. The total addressable market size for commercial aviation, marine shipping, and U.S. military applications are discussed. This report also provides a qualitative analysis of key stakeholder initiatives, market drivers, challenges, and technology developments, as well as profiles of key stakeholders across the value chain.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the current addressable market for commercial aviation, marine shipping, and U.S. military fuel consumption?
  • What is the forecast nameplate production capacity for advanced biorefineries producing drop-in renewable fuels?
  • What is the forecast production volume of drop-in aviation and marine biofuels?
  • Who are the key stakeholders in the emerging aviation and marine biofuels value chain?
  • What are the emerging feedstock opportunities driving the production of aviation and marine biofuels?
Who needs this report?
  • Feedstock growers and suppliers
  • Advanced biofuels producers
  • Petroleum producers and refiners
  • Commercial airlines and shipping companies
  • Port operators
  • Military agencies
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Issues

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues  

2.1  Market Overview

2.1.1   Biofuels in the Global Fuel Supply

2.1.2   Renewable Drop-in Biofuels Overview

2.1.3   Role of Aviation and Marine Biofuels

2.1.4   Key Trends

2.2  Market Opportunities

2.2.1   Commercial Aviation

2.2.2   Commercial Marine Shipping

2.2.3   Military

2.2.4   Specialty Fuels

   2.2.4.1  General Aviation

   2.2.4.2  Missile Fuel

2.3  Market Drivers

2.3.1   Aspirational Targets

2.3.2   Fuel Supply Diversity

   2.3.2.1  Rising Oil Costs

   2.3.2.2  Price Volatility

   2.3.2.3  U.S. Military and Energy Security

2.3.3   Alternative Fuel Mandates

   2.3.3.1  RFS2

   2.3.3.2  RED

   2.3.3.3  Indonesian Aviation Act

2.3.4   Emissions Reduction

   2.3.4.1  EU Emissions Trading System and Aviation Amendments

   2.3.4.2  Marine Pollution and Emission Control Areas Regulations

2.4  Market Barriers

2.4.1   High Cost

   2.4.1.1  Biorefinery Construction Costs

   2.4.1.2  Finished Fuel Costs

2.4.2   Feedstock Limits

2.4.3   Fuel Certification

2.5  Emerging Feedstock Supply Chains

2.5.1   MSW

2.5.2   Waste Gases

2.5.3   Jatropha, Camelina, and Carinata

2.5.4   Halophytes

2.5.5   Algae

2.6  Value Chain Initiatives

2.6.1   Commercial Airline Biofuel Flights

2.6.2   Aviation Biofuel Consortiums

2.6.3   U.S. Navy’s Great Green Fleet

3. Technology Issues 

3.1  Technology Overview

3.2  Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Conversion Pathways

3.2.1   HEFA Fuels

3.2.2   FT Synthetic Paraffinic Kerosene

3.2.3   ATJ

3.2.4   Pyrolysis-to-jet

3.2.5   Fermented Renewable Jet Fuel

3.3  Biotechnology (Feedstock) Developments

3.3.1     Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Feedstocks

3.3.2   Advanced Projects Research Agency-Energy Plants Engineered to Replace Oil Program

3.4  Advanced Biofuels Production

3.4.1   Front-End Conversion Advances

3.4.2   Back-End Conversion Advances

3.5  Biorefinery Business Models

3.5.1   Integrated Biorefinery

3.5.2   Hub and Spoke Model

3.5.3   Bioport Model

3.6  Certification and Testing

3.6.1   ASTM

   3.6.1.1  Aviation Fuel Certifications

   3.6.1.2  Marine Fuel Certifications

3.6.2   Military Certification

4. Key Industry Players  

4.1  Key Player Overview

4.2  Feedstock Suppliers

4.2.1   SGB

4.3  OEMs

4.3.1   Airbus

4.3.2   Boeing

4.3.3   General Electric Aviation

4.3.4   Pratt & Whitney

4.3.5   Rolls-Royce

4.3.6   Wärtsilä

4.4  Advanced Biofuel Producers

4.4.1   AltAir Fuels

4.4.2   Amyris

4.4.3   Chevron Lummus Global

4.4.4   Gevo

4.4.5   LanzaTech

4.4.6   Neste Oil

4.4.7   Primus Green Energy

4.4.8   Renewable Energy Group

4.4.9   SkyNRG

4.4.10   Solazyme

4.4.11   Solena Fuels

4.4.12   UOP

4.5  End Users

4.5.1   Commercial Carriers

4.5.2   Maersk Group

4.5.3   Schipol Group

5. Market Forecasts   

5.1  Forecast Overview

5.1.1   Forecast Segments

5.1.2   Key Inflection Points

5.2  Aviation and Marine Biofuel Forecasts

5.3  Nameplate Production Capacity Forecast by Region and Key Market

5.3.1   Production Capacity by Region

5.3.2   Revenue by Region

5.3.3   Key Markets

   5.3.3.1  United States

   5.3.3.2  EU

   5.3.3.3  Brazil

   5.3.3.4  China

5.4  Nameplate Production Capacity Forecast by Conversion Platform

5.5  Fuel Production Volume Forecast by Fuel Type

5.5.1     High Jet/Low Distillate Scenario

5.5.2   Low Jet/High Distillate Scenario

5.6  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • DOD Petroleum Consumption by Service, United States: 2012
  • DOD Fuel Consumption Mix by Fuel Type, United States: 2008
  • Global AvGas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2010
  • Cost Comparison of Petroleum Jet Fuel, Marine Bunker, and Biofuels Alternatives: 2014-2024
  • Share of Municipal Solid Waste Generation by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
  • Commercial Airline Biofuel Miles Flown by Flight Type, World Markets: 2008-2013
  • Cumulative Revenue from Biorefinery Construction and Fuel Sales by Fuel Product Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Share of Biofuels in Aviation and Marine Fuel Mix by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Nameplate Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from Biorefinery Construction by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Nameplate Production Capacity by Biorefinery Platform and Cumulative Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from Fuel Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Production by Fuel Type, High Jet/Low Distillate Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Production by Fuel Type, Low Jet/High Distillate Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Emerging Aviation and Marine Biofuel Pathways
  • HEFA Production Pathway
  • FT-SPK Production Pathway
  • ATJ Production Pathway
  • HDCJ Production Pathway
  • FRJ Production Pathway
  • Products Made from a Barrel of Crude Oil (Gallons)
  • Overview of Bio-Based Value Chain

List of Tables

  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Producer, World Markets: 2007-2013
  • Biofuel Miles Traveled by Commercial Airlines, World Markets: 2008-2014
  • Top 50 Global Container Fleet Operators: 2012
  • Military Biofuels Demonstrations, World Markets: 2010-2013
  • Profile of Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Markets
  • Aspirational Biofuel Targets by Organization
  • Average Refinery Capital Cost by Resource, World Markets: 2012
  • Potential Aviation and Marine Biofuels Feedstocks by Category
  • Sampling of Aviation Biofuel Initiatives, World Markets: 2014
  • Comparison of Feedstock Pathway Attributes: 2014
  • Aviation Biofuel ASTM Certification Timeline
  • Other Feedstock Producers
  • Early Adopter Commercial Airlines
  • Finished Aviation and Marine Biofuel Pathways
  • Assumed Biorefinery Fuel Production Cut by Conversion Platform
  • DOD Petroleum Consumption by Service, United States: 2012
  • DOD Fuel Consumption Mix by Fuel Type, United States: 2008
  • Global AvGas Consumption by Country, World Markets: 2010
  • Cost Comparison of Petroleum Jet Fuel, Marine Bunker, and Biofuels Alternatives: 2014-2024
  • Share of Municipal Solid Waste Generation by Region, World Markets: 2010-2020
  • Commercial Airline Biofuel Miles Flown by Flight Type, World Markets: 2008-2013
  • Cumulative Revenue of Aviation and Marine Biofuels Market by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Aviation and Marine Fuel Consumption of All Sources by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Commercial and Military Jet Fuel Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Commercial Shipping and Military Marine Bunker Consumption by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Share of Biofuels in Aviation and Marine Fuel Market by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Installed Aviation and Marine Biofuels Nameplate Production Capacity by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (High Jet/Low Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (Low Jet/High Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Region, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Cumulative Revenue from New Aviation and Marine Biorefineries by Conversion Platform, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Revenue from Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (High Jet/Low Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Aviation and Marine Biofuels Production by Fuel Spec (Low Jet/High Distillate), World Markets: 2014-2024

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