Biofuels for Transportation Markets

Ethanol, Biodiesel, Drop-In Biofuels, Biogas, and Biomass-Based Fuels for the Road Transportation Sector: Technology Assessments, Policy Issues, Supply Chain Analysis, and Global Demand Forecasts

Since the turn of the millennium, biofuels have been a leading solution to mitigating the energy security, environmental security, and economic security issues associated with petroleum dependency. In the last 10 years, an increase in ethanol production capacity in the United States and Brazil, and biodiesel in Europe, has resulted in biofuels gaining a foothold in the global market for liquid fuels. The global biofuels industry is now on the verge of entering a new phase of development focused on advanced and drop-in biofuels.

Conventional biofuels – ethanol and biodiesel – are the most near-term solutions to displacing petroleum-based fuel consumption in the road transportation sector. Further advances in biofuels derived from non-food feedstocks and biofuels that are drop-in-capable promise to significantly alter the petroleum industry landscape. Governments and industries are looking at ways to replace the whole barrel of oil by developing biofuels for all forms of transportation: road, aviation, and maritime. Despite the huge potential, however, biofuels are still challenged by issues such as feedstock access, supply chain infrastructure development, and achieving price parity with the well-established petroleum industry. Navigant Research forecasts that global biofuels consumption in the road transportation sector will grow from more than 32.4 billion gallons per year (BGPY) in 2013 to more than 51.1 BGPY in 2022.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the emerging markets and future growth opportunities for biofuels, including ethanol, biodiesel, and drop-in biofuels. The study provides an analysis of the major demand drivers and market challenges related to biofuels technologies. Global market forecasts of vehicle sales and parcs and liquid fuels consumption, station installations, and revenue extend through 2022. The report also examines the key technologies associated with biofuels, as well as the competitive landscape.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the technical challenges related to the commercialization of advanced biofuels technologies?
  • What government regulations and mandates are driving biofuels market growth?
  • Which regional markets are the best opportunities for biofuels technology development and consumption?
  • What are the principal market issues that influence policy development surrounding biofuels?
  • What are the pathways by which biofuels reach all global markets?
  • Where are innovations along the supply line needed to make biofuels competitive with petroleum-based fuels?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Fuel distributors
  • Infrastructure developers
  • Oil and chemical companies
  • Agriculture companies
  • Government agencies
  • Advocacy organizations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Market Overview

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Introduction

2.1.1   Brief History

2.1.2   Government Involvement

2.2  Market Drivers

2.2.1   Energy Security

2.2.2   Environmental Concerns

2.2.3   Economic Development

2.2.4   Military Demand

2.2.5   Aviation Biofuels

2.3  Market Challenges

2.3.1   Price Parity

2.3.2   Infrastructure

2.3.2.1  Ethanol

2.3.2.2  Biodiesel

2.3.2.3  Drop-In Fuels

2.3.3   Environmental and Social Concerns

2.3.3.1  Food versus Fuel

2.3.3.2  Land Use Change

2.3.3.3  Biofuels-Water Nexus

2.3.4   Other Alternative Fuel Technologies

2.4  Regional Analysis

2.4.1   North America

2.4.1.1  RFS2

2.4.1.2  CAFE Standards

2.4.1.3  California’s LCFS

2.4.1.4  Loan Guarantees and Grants

2.4.2   Europe

2.4.2.1  EU Renewable Energy Directive

2.4.3   Latin America

2.4.3.1  Brazil’s ProAlcool Policy

2.4.4   Asia Pacific

2.4.4.1  China’s 12th Five-Year Plan

2.4.5   Rest of World

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Introduction

3.1.1   Feedstock

3.1.2   Biofuels Pathways

3.2  Ethanol

3.2.1   Conventional Ethanol Production

3.2.2   Cellulosic Ethanol Production

3.2.3   Ethanol Distribution

3.2.3.1  E-Diesel

3.2.4   Ethanol Consumption

3.2.4.1  Octane Rating

3.2.4.2  Engine Modifications

3.2.4.3  Efficiency

3.2.4.4  Emissions

3.3  Biodiesel

3.3.1   Biodiesel Production

3.3.2   Biodiesel Distribution

3.3.3   Biodiesel Consumption

3.3.3.1  Engine Modifications

3.3.3.2  Efficiency

3.3.3.3  Emissions

3.4  Drop-In Biofuels

3.4.1   Drop-In Biodiesel Production

3.4.2   Bio-Oil

3.4.3   Algae-Based Biofuels

3.5  Biogas

3.6  Other Advanced Biomass-Based Fuels

3.7  Standards

4. Key Industry Players

4.1  Introduction

4.2  Industry Associations and Research Organizations

4.2.1   Advanced Biofuels Association

4.2.2   Algae Biomass Organization

4.2.3   Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association

4.2.4   National Association of Automobile Manufacturers – Brazil

4.2.5   NREL

4.2.6   Swedish Bioenergy Association

4.2.7   The Association for Convenience & Fuel Retailing

4.3  Biofuels Producers

4.3.1   Abengoa Bioenergía

4.3.2   Archer Daniels Midland

4.3.3   Honeywell UOP

4.3.4   KiOR

4.3.5   REG Life Sciences

4.3.6   Virent Energy Systems

4.4  Fuel Suppliers/Distributors

4.4.1   BP

4.4.2   Chevron

4.4.3   Ethanol Europe Renewables Ltd.

4.4.4   Petrobras

4.4.5   Preem

4.4.6   Propel Fuels

4.4.7   Protec Fuels

4.4.8   Royal Dutch Shell

4.5  Infrastructure Equipment Suppliers

4.5.1   Gilbarco Veeder-Root

4.5.2   Sundyne

4.5.3   Wastecorp Pumps

4.6  Vehicle Manufacturers

4.6.1   BMW

4.6.2   Chrysler

4.6.3   Daimler

4.6.4   FIAT

4.6.5   Ford

4.6.6   General Motors

4.6.7   PSA Peugeot Citroën

4.6.8   Renault

4.6.9   Scania

4.6.10 Volkswagen

4.6.11 Volvo

4.7  Other Industry Participants

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Methodology

5.2  Vehicle Sales

5.2.1   Diesel Vehicle Sales

5.2.2   FFV Sales

5.3  Vehicle Parc

5.3.1   FFV Parc

5.3.2   LD Diesel Vehicle Parc

5.4  Liquid Fuels Consumption

5.4.1   Biofuels Consumption

5.4.1.1  North America

5.4.1.2  Europe

5.4.1.3  Asia Pacific

5.4.1.4  Latin America

5.4.1.5  Middle East & Africa

5.5  Infrastructure

5.6  Revenue

5.6.1   Consumption Revenue

5.6.2   Infrastructure and Equipment Installation Revenue

5.7  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Liquid Fuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, World Markets: 2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, North America: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Western Europe: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Eastern Europe: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Asia Pacific: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Latin America: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Fuel, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Petroleum Refueling Stations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Flex-Fuel Station Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Biodiesel (B20+) Infrastructure Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total Liquid Fuels Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total Liquid Fuels Retail Sales Revenue by Fuel, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • B20+ Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Retail Fuel Prices by Type and Region, World Markets: 2013-2022

List of Tables

  • National Ethanol Mandates by Country, World Markets: 2013
  • National Biodiesel Blending Mandates by Country, World Markets: 2013
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Availability by Region, World Markets: 2013
  • Modifications to Engines by Ethanol/Gasoline Blend and Vehicle Drivetrain Component
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Light Duty Diesel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle Parc by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Total Liquid Fuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Gasoline Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Ethanol Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Consumed by Light Duty Vehicles by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Consumed by Medium and Heavy Duty Vehicles by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biodiesel Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Drop-In Biofuels Consumed in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Share of Total Liquid Fuels Consumption in the Road Transportation Sector by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Petroleum Refueling Stations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Flex-Fuel Station Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Other Industry Participants
  • E-85 Infrastructure Installation Additions by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Biodiesel (B20+) Infrastructure Installations by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biodiesel (B20+) Infrastructure Installation Additions by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Types of Biofuels
  • Total Liquid Fuels Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Gasoline Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Diesel Retail Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biofuels Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Ethanol Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Biodiesel Sales Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Drop-In Biofuels Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Flex-Fuel Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • B20+ Station Installation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Fuel Retail Gasoline Prices by Country, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Fuel Retail Diesel Prices by Country, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Anhydrous Ethanol Price, Brazil (World Price): 2013-2022
  • Average Spot Price of Crude Oil, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Renewable Fuel Standard Implementation Schedule; United States: 2008-2022

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