Clean Diesel Vehicles

Light Duty and Medium Duty Clean Diesel Vehicles:
Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

Modern diesel vehicles have undergone a major transformation in their emissions profiles in recent years. Diesel vehicles that meet current U.S. and European Union standards have dramatically lower nitrogen oxide (NOx) and particulate matter emissions than 20 years ago, earning them the name “clean diesels.” A diesel vehicle typically gets 20% to 40% better fuel economy than a comparable gasoline gas. This factor has made diesel cars tremendously popular in Europe, where they have accounted for around 50% of light-duty vehicle (LDV) sales over the past several years. Due to Europe’s very high fuel prices, the price premium of a diesel car can be paid off quickly. Other markets that have not traditionally strong diesel markets are beginning to open up now. North America, in particular, has been a weak market for diesel LDVs for 20 years and is now showing signs of growth. In 2011, the U.S. diesel market saw 27% growth over 2010, a higher rate than LDV growth overall.

With rising gas prices and stronger fuel economy regulations coming into effect, the United States should see rising demand for diesel cars and trucks. From 2012 to 2018, North America will experience a cumulative growth rate of 22%, reaching annual sales of just under 1 million LDVs. Diesel will still remain a niche vehicle, due to the lack of ubiquitous fuel availability and the higher price of diesel than gas, but Pike Research forecasts that they will capture a slightly higher percentage of new U.S. vehicles sales than hybrids. Globally, clean diesel LDVs will experience much lower growth, with Western Europe continuing to dominate global sales. The availability of clean diesel is almost entirely driven by emission regulations and many countries with strong diesel car markets do not yet have such regulations in place.

This Pike Research report analyzes the global market potential for clean diesel light duty vehicles, as well as the medium and heavy duty segments, from 2012 through 2018. The study assesses the demand drivers for diesel to gain market share over gasoline in key markets where clean diesel regulations are in place. Key industry players are profiled in depth and detailed market forecasts are provided for the clean diesel vehicle market, segmented by world regions and key countries, through 2018. The report also compares projected clean diesel adoption with forecasts of hybrid and plug-in electric vehicles in key regions.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Will markets such as North America begin to see more clean diesel car adoption?
  • How much market share will clean diesel vehicles capture compared to gasoline, hybrid, and plug-in light duty vehicles in key markets?
  • What are the key demand drivers and challenges for increased clean diesel adoption globally?
  • What is the status of government regulation globally that would spur clean diesel vehicle adoption?
  • What are the drivers and challenges for biodiesel use in road transportation?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Medium duty vehicle OEMs
  • Automotive suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations and nonprofit organizations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1.  Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Medium and Heavy Duty Clean Diesel Vehicles

1.3  Biodiesel

2.  Market Issues

2.1  History of Clean Diesel

2.2  What Is a Clean Diesel Vehicle?

2.3  Vehicle Classifications

2.4  Diesel Vehicle Characteristics

2.5  Clean Diesel Vehicle Cost

2.6  Fuel Issues

2.6.1    Availability of Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel

2.6.2    Cost of Diesel versus Gasoline

2.6.3    Biodiesel

2.6.3.1    Fueling and Infrastructure

2.6.3.2    Fuel Economy and Emissions

2.7  Competing Technologies

2.7.1    Gasoline Hybrid

2.7.2    Diesel Hybrid

2.7.3    Stop-start Vehicles

2.7.4    Advanced Gasoline

2.7.5    Flex Fuel

2.8  Regional Markets

2.8.1    North America

2.8.2    Europe

2.8.3    Japan

2.8.4    Emerging Markets

2.8.5    India

2.8.6    China

2.8.7    Brazil

3.  Technology Issues

3.1  Diesel Engines

3.2  Clean Diesel Technologies

3.2.1    Selective Catalytic Reduction

3.2.2    Exhaust Gas Recirculation

3.3  Clean Diesel Fuel

3.4  Biodiesel and Engines

4.  Demand Drivers and Barriers

4.1  Overview

4.2  Government Regulations

4.2.1    North America

4.2.1.1    U.S. EPA Exhaust Emissions Regulations

4.2.1.2    Fuel Economy Standards

4.2.2    2025 CAFE Standards

4.2.3    Canada

4.2.4    Europe

4.2.4.1    Fuel Taxes

4.2.4.2    European Commission’s Energy Taxation Directive

4.2.5    CO2 Emissions Requirements

4.2.6    Asia Pacific

4.2.6.1    Japan

4.2.6.2    China

4.2.6.3    India

4.2.7    Medium Duty Vehicle Regulations

4.2.7.1    Europe

4.2.7.2    Japan

4.2.8    Biofuel Mandates

4.3  Economics

4.3.1    Fuel Costs

4.3.2    Total Cost of Ownership for Fleets

4.4  Environmental Drivers

4.4.1    Black Carbon

4.4.2       Biodiesel Emissions

4.5  Availability of Diesel Fuel

4.6  Availability and Price of Biodiesel

4.7  Vehicle Availability

4.7.1    North America

4.7.2    Asia Pacific

5.  Key Industry Players

5.1  Automotive OEMs

5.1.1    Audi

5.1.2    BMW

5.1.3    Chrysler

5.1.4    Ford

5.1.5    General Motors

5.1.6    Honda

5.1.7    Hyundai

5.1.8    Mazda

5.1.9    Mercedes

5.1.10  Mitsubishi

5.1.11  Nissan

5.1.12  Peugeot-Citroen PSA

5.1.13  Porsche

5.1.14  Renault

5.1.15  Toyota

5.1.16  Volkswagen

5.2  Components Suppliers

5.2.1    Achates Power

5.2.2    BASF

5.2.3    BorgWarner

5.2.4    Bosch

5.2.5    Continental AG

5.2.6    Cummins

5.2.7    Delphi Automotive

5.2.8    Eaton Corp.

5.2.9    Johnson Matthey

5.2.10  Magneti Marelli

5.2.11  Visteon

5.2.12  ZF Friedrichshafen AG

5.3  Biodiesel Fuel Suppliers

5.3.1    ConocoPhillips

5.3.2    CNPC

5.3.3    Imperium Renewables, Inc.

5.3.4    Neste Oil Corporation

5.3.5    Renewable Energy Group, Inc.

5.4  Government, Regulatory Bodies, and Not-for-Profit Organizations

5.4.1    European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association

5.4.2    California Air Resources Board

5.4.3    Diesel Technology Forum

5.4.4    Environment Canada

5.4.5    International Council on Clean Transportation

5.4.6    U.S.  Environmental Protection Agency

6.  Market Forecasts

6.1  Global Light Duty Vehicle Sales Forecast: 2012-2018

6.2  Light Duty Clean Diesel Vehicle Sales Forecast: 2012-2018

6.3  Medium Duty Vehicle Sales Forecast: 2012-2018

6.4  Clean Diesel Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales Forecast: 2012-2018

6.5  Global Diesel Fuel Demand and Pricing

6.6  Biodiesel Demand Projections

7.  Company Directory
8.  Acronym and Abbreviation List
9.  Table of Contents
10.  Table of Charts and Figures
11.  Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Clean Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Percentage of Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Retail Price Difference for Gasoline and Diesel by Region, Key Countries: 1995-2008
  • Annual Clean Diesel and Hybrid Passenger Car Sales, United States: 2009-2011
  • Monthly Passenger Car Sales, United States: 2010-2012
  • Monthly Diesel Passenger Car Sales, United States: April 2010-March 2012
  • Diesel Share of New Passenger Car Vehicle Registrations, Western Europe Top Five Car Markets: 1994-2010
  • Percentage Breakdown by Fuel Type for Passenger Car Sales, EU: 2001-2010
  • Share of New Passenger Vehicle Registrations, Key Countries and Regions: 2003-2011
  • Historic Retail Prices for Fuels, United States: 2001-2011
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Clean Diesel LDV Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • LDV Sales by Drivetrain, North America: 2012-2018
  • Clean Diesel v. Hybrid LDV Sales, North America: 2012-2018
  • LDV Sales by Drivetrain, Western Europe: 2012-2018
  • LDV Sales by Drivetrain, Asia Pacific: 2012-2018
  • Clean Diesel v. Hybrid LDV Sales, Asia Pacific: 2012-2018
  • Annual ICE MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Percentage of Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual MD/HD Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type, United States: 2011-2017
  • Diesel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Diesel Fuel Price Projections, United States: 2012-2018
  • Mandated Biodiesel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • U.S. Vehicle Classes
  • Availability of ULSD Globally: 2011
  • Diesel and Hybrid Share of New Passenger Car Sales, United States: 2002-2013
  • Diesel Engine Emissions Control System
  • European Auto Manufacturer Emissions Reduction Targets: 2006 versus 2012
  • Sales of Low CO2 Emissions Vehicles, European Union: 1995-2009
  • Global CO2 Emissions Reduction Requirements: 2003-2030
  • Well-to-Wheel Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Various Fuels

List of Tables

  • LD Diesel Vehicle NOx and PM Emissions Limits, United States and EU: 2012
  • LD Diesel Vehicle NOx and PM Emissions Limits, United States and EU: 2012
  • European Vehicle Classes
  • Comparison of Internal Combustion Engine Fuel Properties
  • Comparing HEVs to Diesel LDVs
  • Roadmap for Light Duty Diesel Vehicles, North America: 2012 and Beyond
  • Roadmap for Light Duty Diesel-Hybrid Vehicles, Japan and Europe: 2012 and Beyond
  • Roadmap for Light Duty Diesel Vehicles, Japan: 2012 and Beyond
  • Corporate Average Fuel Economy Regulations, United States: 2010-2016
  • Diesel Passenger Car Standards, United States and European Union
  • U.S. Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations
  • Combination Tractor Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY 2017
  • Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY 2017
  • Select Biofuel Blending Mandates and Targets by Country
  • Historic Retail Prices for Gasoline and Diesel, Key Countries: 1995-2008
  • Historic Retail Prices for Fuels, United States: 2001-2011
  • Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized LDV Options with 75,000 Lifetime Miles, United States: 2012
  • Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized LDV Options with 120,000 Lifetime Miles, United States: 2012
  • Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized Sedans with 120,000 Lifetime Miles, United States: 2012
  • Estimated TCO Comparison for Mid-Sized Sedans with 75,000 Lifetime Miles, United States: 2012
  • Annual Growth in LDV Sales by Region, World Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual LDV Sales by Region, World Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual Growth in Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Clean Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual Growth in Clean Diesel LDV Sales by Region, World Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual LDV Sales by Segment by Region, Key Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual LDV Percentage Sales by Segment by Region, Key Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual ICE MD/HD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Percentage of Clean Diesel MD Truck Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Transportation Fuel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Total Diesel Fuel Demand for All Transportation by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Monthly Passenger Car Sales, United States: April 2010-March 2012
  • Average Diesel Price, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Average Gasoline Price, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Mandated Biodiesel Demand by Region, World Markets: 2012-2021

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