Diesel Generator Sets

Distributed Reciprocating Engines for Portable, Standby, Prime, and Continuous Power and Cogeneration Applications: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The diesel generator set (genset) market designates the use of internal combustion engines for distributed power production. Today, reciprocating engine-based gensets are among the fastest-selling, least expensive distributed generation (DG) technologies in the world. As a source of emergency standby, prime, or continuous power, diesel-fueled gensets are poised for continued growth in most regions and power classes, but face increasing competition from natural gas generators in certain markets.

The number of specialized segments within the genset market spanning power classes, applications, and end-use customers offers a rich ecosystem of opportunities for market participants. As a whole, the market has experienced steady growth. However, continued growth in the supply of unconventional gas resources and tightening regulations targeting stationary generator emissions may signal a shift toward cleaner-burning natural gas systems over their diesel counterparts. In the short term, though, countries with strong economic and/or population growth rates that are increasingly burdened by unreliable power grid infrastructure and blackouts will continue to drive diesel genset sales. According to Navigant Research, global diesel genset capacity additions are expected to increase from 62.5 GW in 2015 to 103.7 GW in 2024.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market potential for diesel gensets for residential, commercial, industrial, and power plant applications. The study includes assessments of global regions for capacity installations, an analysis of market drivers and barriers, and a comparison of diesel and natural gas gensets. Global market forecasts for annual capacity additions and revenue, segmented by country and region, extend through 2024. The report also examines the key technologies and components related to diesel gensets, as well as the competitive landscape.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the size of the global market opportunity for diesel generator sets (gensets)?
  • How will the boom in unconventional gas resources for stationary generators affect the diesel genset market?
  • How are emissions regulations affecting demand for diesel and natural gas gensets?
  • Which power classes of gensets are poised for the strongest growth?
  • How do natural disasters affect demand for standby generators?
  • How will the growing role of renewable energy technologies affect the diesel genset market?
Who needs this report?
  • Generator set (genset) OEMs
  • Reciprocating engine distributors and technicians
  • Genset packagers and installers
  • Building owners
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary               

1.1  Overview

1.2  Competitive Landscape

1.3  Diesel Displacement, Microgrids, and Greater Adoption of Renewables

1.4  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues        

2.1  Overview

2.1.1  DG in the Global Context

2.1.2  Gensets as a DG Resource

2.1.3  Role of Diesel Gensets in the DG Market

2.2  The Global Genset Market

2.2.1  Worldwide Engine Orders for Electric Power Applications

2.2.2  Diesel Genset Market Share

2.2.3  Regional Segmentation

2.2.4  Portable versus Stationary Gensets

2.3  Comparing Diesel and NG Gensets

2.3.1  Fuel Security

2.3.2  Emissions

2.3.3  Performance, Reliability, and Convenience

2.3.4  Cost

2.4  Diesel Genset Applications

2.4.1  Standby Power

2.4.2  Prime Power

2.4.3  Peak Shaving

2.4.4  Grid Support

2.4.5  CHP

2.4.6  DR

2.5  Diesel Genset Markets

2.5.1  Consumer Market Opportunities

2.5.2  C&I Market Opportunities

2.5.3  Utility Power Plants

2.6  Market Drivers

2.6.1  Emissions Regulations

2.6.2  Diesel Displacement, Microgrids, and Greater Adoption of Renewables

   2.6.2.1  Diesel Displacement

   2.6.2.2  Solar PV Microgrids

   2.6.2.3  Wind-Diesel Microgrids

   2.6.2.4  Case Study: Kotzebue Electric Association

2.6.3  Military

2.6.4  Increase in Catastrophic Power Outages

2.6.5  Lack of Grid Reliability/Rural Electrification

2.7  Market Barriers

2.7.1  Fuel Costs

2.7.2  Low NG Pricing in the U.S. Market

   2.7.2.1  Europe

   2.7.2.2  Asia Pacific

2.7.3  Interconnection and Utility Barriers

2.7.4  Maintenance Challenges and Cost

2.7.5  Tier 4 Emissions Standards

3. Technology Issues

3.1  Overview

3.2  Engine Types for Diesel Genset Power Plants

3.2.1  Two-Stroke Low-Speed Diesel Engines

3.2.2  Four-Stroke Medium-Speed Diesel Engines

3.2.3  Engine Speed Considerations

3.2.4  Installed Costs

3.2.5  Diesel Fuel Costs

3.3  Genset Applications by Power Rating

3.3.1  Continuous Power

3.3.2  Prime Power

3.3.3  Standby/Backup Power

3.4  Diesel Genset Technology Development

3.4.1  Fuel Efficiency Improvements

   3.4.1.1  Bi-Fuel Systems

3.4.2  Monitoring and Design Improvements

3.4.3  Emissions Control Techniques

3.5  Biodiesel Gensets

4. Key Industry Players      

4.1  Competitive Landscape

4.1.1  Briggs & Stratton

4.1.2  Caterpillar

4.1.3  Cummins

4.1.4  Dresser-Rand

4.1.5  GE Energy

4.1.6  Generac Power Systems

4.1.7  Kohler Co.

4.1.8  MTU Onsite Energy

4.1.9  Perkins

4.1.10   Wärtsilä

5. Market Forecasts   

5.1  Methodology

5.2  Key Flex Points

5.3  DG Forecasts

5.4  Global Genset Market Outlook

5.4.1  North America

5.4.2  Western Europe

5.4.3  Eastern Europe

5.4.4  Asia Pacific

5.4.5  Latin America

5.4.6  The Middle East

5.4.7  Africa

5.5  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Distributed Generation Capacity Additions by Technology, World Markets: 2014
  • Annual Capacity of Engine Orders for Power Applications by Power Class, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Capacity of Engine Orders for Power Applications by Power Class, North America: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders for Power Applications Market Share by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014
  • Annual Capacity of Engine Orders for Power Applications by Fuel Type, 0.5-1 MW Power Class, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Capacity of Engine Orders for Power Applications by Fuel Type, 1 MW-2 MW Power Class, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Capacity of Engine Orders for Power Applications by Fuel Type, 2 MW-3.5 MW Power Class, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders for Power Applications by Region, ≥500 kW Power Class, World Markets: 2014
  • Estimated Cost of Fuel for Operating Diesel Generators for Selected Durations of Time at 3/4 Load, $4/Gallon No. 2 Diesel
  • Average Annual Spot Price of Natural Gas by Market, World Markets: 2001-2013
  • Diesel vs. Natural Gas Prices, United States: 2007-2014E
  • Diesel Power Plant Installed Costs by Component, Select Countries: 2008
  • Estimated Cost of Fuel for Operating 20 kW Diesel Generator for Selected Durations of Time at 3/4 Load, No. 2 Diesel
  • Estimated Cost of Fuel for Operating 200 kW Diesel Generator for Selected Durations of Time at 3/4 Load, No. 2 Diesel
  • Estimated Cost of Fuel for Operating 2,000 kW Diesel Generator for Selected Durations of Time at 3/4 Load, No. 2 Diesel
  • Annual GDP, New Electricity Generation Capacity Additions, and New Distributed Generation Capacity Additions, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Western Europe: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Eastern Europe: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Asia Pacific: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Latin America: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Middle East: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Africa: 2015-2024
  • Wärtsilä Power Plant Construction Quotations, World Markets: 2005-2014
  • U.S. Department of Defense Small Generator Inventory
  • Thermal Efficiency Variations Based on Genset System Configuration
  • Bi-Fuel Generator Fuel Use, 600 kWe

List of Tables     

  • Applications and Markets for Diesel and Gas-Fired DG Technologies
  • Historical Outage Data by Year, United States: 2008-2014
  • Estimated Losses per Hour of Grid Failure by Operations/Industry
  • Estimated Genset Market Share by Power Class, United States: 2014
  • Annual Installed Distributed Generation Capacity Additions by Technology, World Markets: 2014
  • Reciprocating Engine Capacity and Speed by Speed Classification
  • Annual Engine Orders, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Power Class, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Order Capacity, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Power Class, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Power Class, North America: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Order Capacity, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Power Class, North America: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders, 500 kW-1 MW, for Power Applications by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Order Capacity, 500 kW-1 MW, for Power Applications by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders, 1 MW-2 MW, for Power Applications by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Order Capacity, 1 MW-2 MW, for Power Applications by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders, 2 MW-3.5 MW, for Power Applications by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Order Capacity, 2 MW-3.5 MW, for Power Applications by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2009-2014
  • Annual Engine Orders, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Generating Service and Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014
  • Annual Engine Orders, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Region, World Markets: 2014
  • Annual Engine Order Capacity, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Generating Service and Fuel Type, World Markets: 2014
  • Annual Engine Order Capacity, ≥500 kW, for Power Applications by Region, World Markets: 2014
  • Diesel vs. Natural Gas Prices by Date, United States: 2007-2014
  • Average Spot Price of LNG, Natural Gas, and Crude Oil by Market, World Markets: 2001-2014
  • Diesel Power Plant Installed Costs by Component, Select Countries: 2008
  • Estimated Fuel Cost for Operating Diesel Generators at 3/4 Load by Capacity, $2/Gallon No. 2 Diesel
  • Estimated Fuel Cost for Operating Diesel Generators at 3/4 Load by Capacity, $4/Gallon No. 2 Diesel
  • Estimated Fuel Cost for Operating Diesel Generators at 3/4 Load by Capacity, $6/Gallon No. 2 Diesel
  • Installed Cost by Distributed Generation Technology, World Markets: 2012
  • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Diesel Genset Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual GDP, New Electric Generation Capacity Additions, and New Distributed Generation Capacity Additions, World Markets: 2014-2024
  • Reciprocating Engine Genset Market Overview
  • Estimated Genset Market Share by Fuel and Lower Power Classes, United States: 2012
  • Example Emerging Opportunities for Diesel Gensets
  • Reciprocating Engine Types by Speed (Available MW Ratings)
  • Snapshot of Genset OEM Market

Report Details

  • Pages: 92
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    65
  • Release Date: 2Q 2015
  • Release File(s): PDF* and Excel *Indicates primary report file.

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