Electric Drive Buses

Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Buses: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts for Heavy Duty and Medium Duty Segments

Over the past few years, government stimulus funding has helped drive adoption of alternative fuel buses around the world, including buses with electric drivetrains. Hybrid and battery buses have both benefitted from these initiatives, while fuel cell buses have had support from government programs designed to support transit fuel cell systems. Bus operators are interested in electric drive options because they offer environmental and energy security benefits, quieter operation, as well as fuel savings. However, the fact that many of these benefits accrue mostly to the public, rather than to owners or operators, threatens to limit the commercial success of these technologies. All three bus options come with higher price tags than diesel or CNG buses, and bus operators must either offset these costs with government subsidies or achieve sufficient operational savings to offset the price premium.

This cost premium will be a challenge for both battery and fuel cell buses in securing significant market share, but both segments will continue to see growth as countries subsidize new bus technologies. Hybrid buses have already captured significant market share in the United States, and China has also been strong in this technology. Hybrid buses will also begin to see more uptake in Europe, albeit at a slower rate than in the United States or China. Lithium ion batteries, the primary battery chemistry for battery buses, will also supply a significant percentage of the energy storage needed in hybrid and fuel cell drivetrains.

This Pike Research report examines the opportunities and challenges in the global market for hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel cell buses. The report covers the full range of bus applications including transit, motor coach, shuttle, school buses, and paratransit, in addition to the most prevalent bus sizes: full-size, articulated, medium duty or midibuses, and minibuses. The report provides an assessment of the top markets for electric buses, the likely next markets, and key drivers and barriers to market growth including public policy, cost, domestic content regulations, and competing technologies. Market forecasts are included for hybrid, battery, and fuel cell buses in heavy duty and medium duty segments through 2018, and key market players are also profiled.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Will the hybrid bus market continue to grow in North America and China, the two leading markets to date?  Will hybrid buses begin to see more demand outside these two markets?
  • When will battery buses begin to see real penetration in markets outside of China?
  • When will fuel cell buses begin to see major deployments, where and why?
  • Will electric technologies succeed in bus applications beyond the full-size transit bus market?
  • Are electric buses being adopted due to regulatory pressure or life cycle cost benefits?
  • What is the biggest barrier to electric bus adoption?
  • Who are the key market players in electrified buses?
  • What is market opportunity for lithium ion batteries in hybrid, battery and fuel cell buses?
Who needs this report?
  • Bus OEMs
  • Electric drive manufacturers
  • Hybrid drive manufacturers
  • Fuel cell system manufacturers
  • Battery manufacturers and suppliers
  • Charging system providers
  • Hydrogen infrastructure providers
  • Fleet managers
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Market Overview

1.2   Status of Electric Drive Buses

1.3   Market Conditions

1.4   Market Forecasts

1.4.1     Lithium Ion Battery Demand

2. Market Issues

2.1   Analysis of Applications for Electric Drive Buses

2.2   Paratransit or Demand Response Buses

2.2.1     Motorcoach Services

2.2.2     Transit Service

2.2.3     Shuttle Services

2.2.4     School Buses

2.3   Vehicle Sizes and Electric Drive Development

2.3.1     Vehicles Classes

2.3.2     Full-Size: 40-foot or 12 m

2.3.2.1     Double Decker and Articulated Buses

2.3.3     Small Heavy Duty Bus or Midibus

2.3.4     Medium Duty Buses or Minibuses

2.4   Bus versus Heavy Duty Truck Market

3. Technology Issues

3.1   Hybrid Drivetrains

3.1.1     Fuel

3.1.2     Battery Management for Hybrids

3.2   Plug-In Electric Buses

3.2.1     Battery Electric Buses

3.2.2     Plug-in Hybrid Buses

3.2.3     Recharging Infrastructure

3.3   Fuel Cells

3.3.1     Fuel Cell Range Extender or Auxiliary Power Unit

3.3.2     Hydrogen Infrastructure

3.4   Batteries for Electric Drive Buses

3.5   Ultracapacitors

4. Key Markets by Region and Country

4.1   Overview

4.1.1     United States

4.1.1.1     California

4.1.2     Canada

4.1.3     Europe

4.1.4     China

4.1.5     South Korea

4.1.6     Japan

4.1.7     Brazil

4.1.8     Uruguay

5. Market Drivers and Barriers

5.1   Emissions and Fuel Economy Regulations

5.1.1     North America

5.1.2     European Union

5.1.3     Asia Pacific

5.2   Vehicle Cost

5.3   Reduced Fuel Consumption and Fuel Cost Savings

5.4   Operational and Maintenance Issues

5.5   OEMS versus Technology Developers

5.6   Domestic Content Regulations

5.7   The Rise of Bus Rapid Transit

5.8   Competing Technologies

5.8.1     Natural Gas

5.8.2     Biodiesel

5.8.3     Propane (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)

6. Key Industry Players

6.1   Original Equipment Manufacturers

6.1.1     Alexander Dennis

6.1.2     Ashok Leyland

6.1.3     BYD

6.1.4     Daimler

6.1.5     DesignLine

6.1.6     ElDorado National

6.1.7     EVAmerica

6.1.8     Foton

6.1.9     IC Bus

6.1.10   NABI

6.1.11   New Flyer Industries

6.1.12   Nova Bus

6.1.13   Optare

6.1.14   Proterra

6.1.15   Tata Motors

6.1.16   Trans Tech

6.1.17   Van Hool

6.1.18   WrightBus

6.2   Component and Drivetrain Companies

6.2.1     Allison Transmission

6.2.2     Ballard

6.2.3     BAE Systems

6.2.4     Balqon Corporation

6.2.5     Eaton

6.2.6     Hydrogenics

6.2.7     Maxwell

6.2.8     TM4

6.2.9     UQM

6.2.10   UTC Power

6.3   American Government Agencies and NGO Bus Customers

6.3.1     Advanced Energy

6.3.2     American Bus Association

6.3.3     Foothill Transit

6.3.4     LA Metro

6.3.5     Link Transit

6.3.6     U.S. Federal Transit Authority

7. Market Forecasts

7.1   Global Electric Bus Forecast: 2012-2018

7.2   Cumulative Electric Drive Buses by Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018

7.3   Hybrid Buses

7.3.1     Hybrid Bus Sales by Vehicle Segment

7.4   Battery Electric Buses

7.4.1     Battery Electric Buses by Vehicle Segment

7.5   Fuel Cell Buses

7.5.1     Fuel Cell Buses by Vehicle Segment

7.6   Global Lithium Ion Battery Demand from Electric Drive Buses: 2012-2018

7.7   Global Lithium Ion Battery Revenue from Electric Buses: 2012-2018

7.8   Summary and Conclusions

8. Company Directory
9. Acronym and Abbreviation List
10. Table of Contents
11. Table of Charts and Figures
12. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Lithium Ion Transportation Battery Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • NEV Bus Ownership in 25 Demonstration Cities by Vehicle Segment, China: 2011
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Cumulative Electric Drive Bus Sales by Segment and Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Hybrid Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Hybrid Bus Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Battery Electric Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Battery Electric Bus Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Fuel Cell Bus Unit Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Fuel Cell Unit Bus Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Electric Drive Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Electric Drive Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Hybrid Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Hybrid Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Battery Electric Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Battery Electric Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Fuel Cell Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Fuel Cell Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • United States Truck Classes

List of Tables

  • Advantages and Disadvantages of Transit Applications for Electric Drive
  • Advantages and Disadvantages of Shuttle Applications for Electric Drive
  • Available Electric Drive School Buses
  • Advantages and Disadvantages of School Bus Applications for Electric Drive
  • European Vehicle Classes
  • Assessing Hybrid Electric Bus Technology
  • Assessing Battery Electric Bus Technology
  • Assessing Fuel Cell Bus Technology
  • Energy Storage Used by Selected Electric Drive Buses
  • Comparison of Lithium Ion Batteries and Ultracapacitors
  • European Bus OEMs Involved in German Hybrid Demonstration Initiative
  • Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations: MY 2017
  • EU GHG Reductions Compared to 1990:  2005-2050
  • Prices for Various Types of HD and MD Buses
  • Lithium Ion Battery Selling Price, World Markets: 2011-2018
  • Annual Growth in Electric Drive Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Hybrid Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Battery Electric Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Growth in Electric Drive Bus Segments, World Markets:  2012-2018
  • Annual Electric Drive Buses by Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Cumulative Electric Drive Buses by Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Electric Drive Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Electric Drive Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Growth in Hybrid Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Hybrid Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Hybrid Heavy Duty Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Hybrid Medium Duty Bus/Shuttlebus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Hybrid Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Hybrid Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Hybrid Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Growth in Battery Electric Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Battery Electric Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Battery Electric Heavy Duty Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Battery Electric Medium Duty Bus/Shuttlebus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Battery Electric Bus Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Battery Electric Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Battery Electric Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Growth in Fuel Cell Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Fuel Cell Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Fuel Cell Heavy Duty Bus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Fuel Cell Medium Duty Bus/Shuttlebus Sales, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Annual Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Segment, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Fuel Cell Bus Lithium Ion Battery Revenue, World Markets: 2012-2018
  • Fuel Cell Bus Lithium Ion Battery Capacity, World Markets: 2012-2018

Report Details

  • Pages: 89
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    66
  • Release Date: 3Q 2012

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