Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts

Battery and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Sales and Populations
in North America

Sales of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in North America have been concentrated in the U.S. West Coast states since the launch of the market in 2011. Outside of the West Coast, a group of eight northeastern states is likely to see PEV sales increase considerably as automakers stress battery electric vehicle (BEV) deployments and marketing efforts to comply with the region’s mandates for PEV production. Outside of the zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) states, PEV sales will grow most quickly in states with desirable PEV incentives, low vehicle capability and range requirements, and positive demographic characteristics related to PEVs. Navigant Research expects the North American PEV market to grow by around 62% year-over-year in 2016, nearing 200,000 sales. Growth is anticipated to come from expanding sales of the Tesla Model X, the second-generation Volt, and the introduction of the Chevrolet Bolt 200-mile range BEV, Prius Prime plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV later in the year. Further ahead, Navigant Research projects that the introduction of the Tesla Model 3 in late 2017 will likely boost the North American PEV market by around 60% in 2017 and then nearly double the market in 2018 after the first full year of Model 3 sales. This report draws on the model results published in Navigant Research’s Electric Vehicle Market Forecast report, with a specific focus on North America. The study assesses PEV sales and populations in the United States and Canada and provides detailed geographic breakdowns of PEV sales by U.S. state, core based statistical area (CBSA), Canadian province, and Canadian census metropolitan area (CMA). Forecasts are provided under three scenario conditions (conservative, base, and aggressive), alongside results from Navigant Research’s annual Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Which areas in North America are most likely to have the largest penetration of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)?
  • Which U.S. core based statistical areas (CBSAs) have profiles that match the typical PEV owner demographics?
  • What is the projected size of the North American PEV market over the next 10 years?
  • What are the vehicle style preferences of PEV prospects?
  • What are the vehicle style, option, and range requirements for regional vehicle markets?
  • How can automakers comply with regional zero emissions vehicles (ZEV) mandates?
  • What are the anticipated vehicle purchase costs of PEV prospects? 
Who needs this report?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • Electric vehicle (EV) charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State, province, and city urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Background Data

1.2  Market Forecasts

2. Market Parameters

2.1  Introduction

2.2  North American Light Vehicle Markets

2.2.1  Regulatory Environment

2.2.1.1  National Level

2.2.1.2  Regional Level

2.2.1.3  State, Province, and Local Levels

2.2.2  Technology Availability and Innovation

3. Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey

3.1  Introduction

3.2  National Results

3.2.1  PEV Respondents

3.2.2  PEV Drawbacks and Advantages

3.2.2.1  Drawbacks

3.2.2.2  Advantages

3.3  Regional Analysis

3.3.1  Choice

3.3.1.1  Capability

3.3.1.2  Cost

4. Methodology

4.1  Overview

4.2  State/Province Disaggregation

4.3  Local-Level Disaggregation

4.3.1  PEV Profile

4.3.2  PEV Index

4.3.3  Major U.S. and Canadian Metropolitan Area PEV Index Scores

5. Market Forecasts

5.1  Introduction

5.2  United States

5.2.1  States

5.2.2  Core Based Statistical Areas

5.3  Canada

5.3.1  Provinces

5.3.2  Census Metropolitan Areas

5.4  Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Acronym and Abbreviation List 7. Table of Contents 8. Table of Charts and Figures 9. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • PEV Sales by Major Market, Base Scenario, North America: 2016-2025
  • Alternative Powertrain Market Share by Technology, United States and Canada: 2016
  • Geographic Distribution of Respondents, Top 15 CBSAs, United States: 2016
  • Preferred Engine Choice in Next Vehicle Purchase, United States: 2016
  • Minimum Range to Consider BEV Purchase, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Preferred Body Style of PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Anticipated Next Vehicle Purchase Cost by Engine Choice Preference, United States: 2016
  • Primary Drawback to PEV Ownership, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Primary Advantage to PEV Ownership by PEV Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Vehicle Body Type Preference by Region, United States: 2016
  • AWD as Most Important Vehicle Option, United States: 2016
  • Range Requirements by Region, United States: 2016
  • Anticipated Monthly Car Payments by Region, United States: 2016
  • PEV Profile against Disinterested PEV Profile by Characteristic, United States: 2016
  • Distribution of County PEV Index Scores, United States: 2016
  • PEV Sales by Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • PEV Market Share, Base Scenario, Top 10 U.S. States: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales by Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales in Top Four Provinces, Base Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • U.S. National Alternative Fuel Vehicles Sales Model
  • State-/Province-Level Disaggregation Model
  • Local-Level Disaggregation Model
  • Penetration of the Top 100 CBSA PEV Populations, United States: 2025
  • Penetration of the Top 15 CMA PEV Populations, Canada: 2025

List of Tables

  • Geographic Areas for Forecasts
  • Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Respondent Demographics, United States: 2016
  • Top 15 PEV Index Scores of CBSAs with Populations over 550,000, United States: 2015
  • Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Respondent Geographic Distribution by State, United States: 2016
  • Geographic Distribution of Respondents by 15 Most Populous CBSAs, United States: 2016
  • PEV Profile Demographic Distribution
  • Disinterested PEV Profile Demographic Distribution
  • Top PEV Index Scores of Census Metropolitan Areas with Populations over 200,000, Canada: 2016
  • Primary Drawback to PEV Ownership, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Primary Advantage to PEV Ownership, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Preferred Engine Choice in Next Vehicle Purchase, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Preferred Body Style of PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Anticipated Monthly Cost for Next Vehicle Purchase of PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Minimum Range to Consider Purchase of a Battery Electric Vehicle, PEV Engine Choice Respondents vs. Other Respondents, Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey, United States: 2016
  • Li-ion Battery Price Decline from 2015 Price Estimates by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Oil Prices by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Gasoline Pump Prices by State, Base Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • Gasoline Pump Prices by Province, Base Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • Residential Electricity Prices by State, Base Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • Residential Electricity Prices by Province, Base Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • LD Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • LD Vehicles in Use by State, United States: 2016-2025
  • LD PEV Sales by State, Technology, and Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • LD PEVs in Use by State, Technology, and Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • LD PEV Sales by 100 Largest CBSA PEV Populations, Technology, and Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • LD PEVs in Use by 100 Largest CBSA PEV Populations, Technology, and Scenario, United States: 2016-2025
  • Utilities Serving Top 25 CBSAs, United States: 2016
  • LD Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2016-2025
  • LD Vehicles in Use by Province, Canada: 2016-2025
  • LD PEV Sales by Province, Technology, and Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • LD PEVs in Use by Province, Technology, and Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • LD PEV Sales by 15 Largest Metro Area PEV Populations, Technology, and Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • LD PEVs in Use by 10 Most Populous Cities, Technology, and Scenario, Canada: 2016-2025
  • Utilities Serving Top 15 CMAs, Canada: 2016
  • Scenario Conditions: World Markets: 2025
  • Electric Vehicle Consumer Survey Respondent Demographics, United States: 2016
  • Top PEV Index Scores of CBSAs with Populations over 550,000, United States: 2016
  • Top PEV Index Scores of Metro Areas with Populations over 200,000, Canada: 2016

Report Details

  • Pages: 44
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    62
  • Release Date: 2Q 2016

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