Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are forecast to reach 400,073 annual sales in the United States and 107,146 in Canada by 2020, but the real story of these sales is in the cities and utility service territories where the vehicles will be located. In order to understand the geographical distribution of PEV sales, this report breaks down these sales by state and across cities with more than 500,000 residents in the United States, plus forecasts for Canadian provinces and the seven largest cities in Canada. These forecasts were created by analyzing OEM vehicle rollout schedules, population and demographic trends in comparison to early PEV and HEV owner demographic profiles, and survey data on attitudes toward electric vehicles.
As a result of this analysis, Pike Research forecasts that California, New York, Florida, and Texas will lead the way in PEV sales. By 2020, Hawaii is expected to have the highest penetration rate of PEVs as a percentage of all light duty vehicle sales. Among metropolitan areas, New York City, Los Angeles, and San Francisco are anticipated to have the largest sales of PEVs through the decade. In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia, which account for 75% of the Canadian population, will represent 97% of Canadian PEV sales by 2020. Toronto and Montreal will lead Canadian PEV sales.
This Pike Research report provides data and forecasts for the plug-in electric vehicle market for U.S. states and metropolitan statistical areas as well as Canadian provinces and cities. The report also includes forecasts for PEV sales across selected electric utility service territories. The data includes sales forecasts from 2012 to 2020 at each geographic level as well as analysis of major trends in the forecasts.
Key Questions Addressed:
- Which states and provinces have the greatest affinity toward electric vehicle ownership?
- Which cities’ demographics match up best with typical PEV buyers?
- Where will PEV sales grow the fastest?
- How many PEVs will be sold in each state?
- What will be the penetration rates of PEVs in each state?
- Which cities will see the largest number of PEVs in the next eight years?
- How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for?
Who needs this report?
- Auto manufacturers
- Automotive suppliers
- Vehicle aftermarket and service management providers
- Electric vehicle charging equipment vendors
- Utilities
- Government agencies
- Industry associations
- Investor community
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 Background Data
1.2 Market Forecasts
2. Background Data
2.1 Population and Demographics
2.1.1 U.S. Demographics
2.1.2 Canadian Demographics
2.2 Plug-in Electric Vehicle Attitudes
2.2.1 U.S. PEV Attitudes
2.2.2 Canadian PEV Attitudes
2.3 Manufacturer Vehicle Rollout Schedule
2.3.1 U.S. PEV Rollout
2.3.2 Canadian PEV Rollout
2.4 Current Vehicle Market
3. United States Market Forecasts
3.1 PEV Sales by State
3.2 PEV Sales by MSA
3.3 PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Areas
4. Canadian Market Forecasts
4.1 PEV Sales by Province
4.2 PEV Sales by City
4.3 Conclusions
5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
- Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top Five MSAs, United States: 2012-2020
- Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top Five Provinces, Canada: 2012-2020
- Index of Positive Opinion Toward PEVs by State, United States: 2011
- PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales, United States: 2012-2020
- Annual PEV Sales, Top Ten States, United States: 2012, 2020
- PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales, Top 25 States, United States: 2020
- PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales, Canada: 2012-2020
- Annual PEV Sales, Top Five Provinces, Canada: 2012-2020
- Annual PEV Sales, Top Seven Cities, Canada: 2012-2020
List of Tables
- Geographic Levels Included in Forecasts
- PEV Demographic Profile
- Index of Demographic Similarities Between MSA and National PEV Profile, United States: 2010
- Index of Demographic Similarities Between Cities and National PEV Profile, Top Seven Cities, Canada: 2010
- Mix of PEV Availability by State, United States: 2012-2020
- Total Population, 102 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2011
- Total Households, 102 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2011
- Light Duty Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2012-2020
- PEV Sales by State, United States: 2012-2020
- PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2012-2020
- Cumulative PEV Sales by State, United States: 2012-2020
- Percentage of Cumulative PEV Sales by State, United States: 2012-2020
- PEV Sales, Top 102 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2012-2020
- Ratio of PEV Sales to Population, Top 102 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2020
- Cumulative PEV Sales, Top 102 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2012-2020
- Percentage of Total PEVs, Top 102 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2012-2020
- Cumulative PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Areas, United States: 2012-2020
- Share of Total PEVs by Selected Utilities, United States: 2012-2020
- Cumulative PEV Sales in Utility Service Areas, United States: 2012-2020
- Total Population by Province, Canada: 2011
- Total Population by Selected Cities, Canada: 2011
- Index of PEV Demographic and Population Correlation by Province, Canada: 2011
- Index of PEV Demographic and Population Correlation by City, Canada: 2011
- Annual PEV Sales by Province, Canada: 2012-2020
- PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2012-2020
- Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2012-2020
- Annual PEV Sales by City, Canada: 2012-2020
- City PEV Sales as Percentage of Province PEV Sales, Canada: 2012-2020
- Cumulative PEV Sales by City, Canada: 2012-2020
- Index of Positive Opinion Toward Electric Vehicles by State, United States: 2011
- Total Population by State, United States: 2011
- Total Households by State, United States: 2011