Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts

Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales Forecasts for North America
by State/Province, Metropolitan Area, City, and Selected Utility Service Territories

The real story of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales in the United States and Canada can be found in the cities and utility service territories where the vehicles will be located. In order to understand how geographically diverse PEV sales may be in North America, this report segments sales forecasts by state, metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and utility service territory in the United States and by province and the nine largest cities in Canada. The forecasts were created by analyzing OEM vehicle rollout schedules, population and demographic trends in comparison to early PEV and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) owner demographic profiles, and attitudes toward electric vehicles.

As a result of this analysis, Navigant Research projects that California, New York, Washington, and Florida will lead the way in PEV sales in the United States. By 2022, Hawaii is expected to have the highest concentration of annual PEV sales (in terms of percentage of overall vehicle sales in the state), followed by California and Oregon. Los Angeles, New York City, and San Francisco are anticipated to have the largest sales of PEVs through the forecast period. In Canada, the provinces of Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia will account for 97% of Canadian PEV sales by 2022 (they also account for 75% of the Canadian population). The cities of Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver will lead Canadian PEV sales. Navigant Research forecasts PEVs will reach 416,148 annual sales in the United States and 230,479 in Canada by 2022.

This Navigant Research report provides data and forecasts for the PEV market for U.S. states, MSAs, and utility service territories, and for Canadian provinces and cities. The study provides sales forecasts from 2013 to 2022 at each geographic level and analysis of major trends in the forecasts. Percentage penetration and cumulative sales data are also provided.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • Which U.S. states and Canadian provinces have the greatest affinity toward electric vehicle ownership?
  • How do demographics affect PEV ownership?
  • How quickly will the PEV market grow in North America over the next 9 years?
  • In which U.S. and Canadian areas will PEV sales grow the fastest?
  • How big will the market share of PEVs be in selected states, MSAs, utility service territories, provinces, and cities?
  • How many vehicles will electric utilities have to prepare for in the future?
Who needs this report?
  • Automobile OEM marketing managers
  • Vehicle aftermarket and service management
  • Tier One supplier marketing managers
  • EV charging equipment marketing managers
  • Electric utility management
  • State urban planning managers
  • Province urban planning managers
  • City urban planners
  • EV advocacy groups
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Background Data

1.2   Market Forecasts

2. Background Data

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Population and Demographics

2.2.1  U.S. Demographics

2.2.2  Canadian Demographics

2.3   Plug-In Electric Vehicle Attitudes

2.3.1  U.S. PEV Attitudes

2.3.2  Canadian PEV Attitudes

2.4   Vehicle and Infrastructure Availability

2.5   Overall Vehicle Market and Fuel Costs

3. United States Market Forecasts

3.1   Introduction

3.2   PEV Sales by State

3.3   PEV Sales by Metropolitan Statistical Area

3.4   PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Area

3.5   Conclusions – U.S. Market

4. Canadian Market Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.2   PEV Sales by Province

4.3   PEV Sales by City

4.4   Conclusions – Canadian Market

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top Five States, United States: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top Five Provinces, Canada: 2013-2022
  • Index of Positive Opinion toward PEVs by State, United States: 2011
  • PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales, United States: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top 10 States, United States: 2013, 2022
  • PEV Sales as a Percentage of Light Duty Vehicle Sales, Top 25 States, United States: 2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top Five Utility Service Areas, United States: 2013-2022
  • PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales, Canada: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top Seven Provinces, Canada: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top Nine Cities, Canada: 2013-2022

List of Tables

  • Geographic Areas for Forecasts
  • PEV Demographic Profile
  • Index of Demographic Similarities between Metropolitan Statistical Areas and National PEV Profile, Top 10 MSAs, United States: 2010
  • Index of Demographic Similarities between Cities and National PEV Profile, Top Seven Cities, Canada: 2010
  • Total Population and Households by State, United States: 2012
  • Total Population, 100 Largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2012
  • Total Population and Households by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2011
  • Total Population by Province, Canada: 2012
  • Total Population by Selected City, Canada: 2011
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales by State, United States: 2013-2022
  • PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales by State, United States: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Light Duty PEV Sales by State, United States: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales, Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2013-2022
  • Ratio of PEV Sales to Population, Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Light Duty PEV Sales, Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2013-2022
  • Percentage of Total PEVs, Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, United States: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Light Duty PEV Sales by Selected Utility Service Area, United States: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales by Province, Canada: 2013-2022
  • PEV Sales as a Percentage of Total Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Province, Canada: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Light Duty PEV Sales by Province, Canada: 2013-2022
  • Annual Light Duty PEV Sales by City, Canada: 2013-2022
  • City PEV Sales as Percentage of Province PEV Sales, Canada: 2013-2022
  • Cumulative Light Duty PEV Sales by City, Canada: 2013-2022

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