Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use: 2015-2024

The end of 2015 marks the completion of the fifth full year of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) sales to key markets from major automakers. The market for electric vehicles (EVs), which includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), has changed significantly over this time period, but the expected changes during the next 5 years will be even more impactful to the global automotive and energy industries.

The PEV market is now well-established in North America, Europe, and developed Asia Pacific markets due largely to strong government support through vehicle fuel efficiency regulations, as well as purchase incentives. Automakers are beginning to develop offerings that will overcome challenges to market acceptance, such as all-electric range, cost, and charging time. Meanwhile, companies within the electric power sector of global markets are determining how best they can take part in encouraging PEV market growth. Yet, weaknesses to widespread adoption of EV technologies do exist, such as the dive in oil prices that began in mid-2014. Additionally, now that national markets have found solid footing, some local governments are beginning to phase out or remove purchase incentives. Still, according to Navigant Research, the global light duty EV market is expected to grow from 2.6 million vehicle sales in 2015 to over 6.0 million in 2024 under a base scenario.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), region, country, drivetrain, and automaker, extend through 2024. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the growth rates of light duty hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2024?
  • How many light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will be on the roads through 2024?
  • What are the key factors driving growth in the light duty electric vehicle (EV) market?
  • How will light duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV sales be affected by other alternative fuel technologies?
  • Which HEV, PHEV, and BEV models are expected to be launched between 2015 and 2017?
  • What are the current government policies regarding EVs and how will changes affect sales?
  • How will fuel prices and advances in lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries affect light duty EV sales?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Electric vehicle (EV) component manufacturers and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Report Scope and Definitions

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions 

2.1  Background

2.2  Report Scope and Definitions

2.3  LDV Market Forecast Methodology

2.4  EV Market Forecast Methodology

2.4.1  Automaker Electrification Strategy

2.4.1.1  Strategy

2.4.1.2  Body Type and Class

2.4.1.3  Body Type

2.4.1.4  Class

2.4.1.5  Presence

2.4.1.6  EV Availability

2.4.2  Consumer Choice

2.4.2.1  Vehicle Pricing

2.4.2.2  Government Policy

2.4.2.3  Fuel Prices

2.4.2.4  Vehicle Characteristics

3. Market Forecasts

3.1  LDVs

3.2  EVs

3.2.1  HEVs

3.2.1.1  Forecasts by Geography

3.2.1.2  Forecasts by Automaker

3.2.2  PEVs

3.2.2.1  Forecasts by Geography

3.2.2.2  Forecasts by Automaker

3.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light Duty EV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Price Decline by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario (2013 U.S. Dollars), World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Pack Energy Density Improvement by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share Country, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty PEV Sales vs. HEV Sales, Base Scenario, China: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty Luxury HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Country, World Markets: 2015
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Country, Base Scenario, Top Five European Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2015
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024

List of Tables

  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, North America: 2015-2017
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Europe: 2015-2017
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2015-2017
  • Light Duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV Incentives by Select Country, World Markets: 2015
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario (2013 U.S. Dollars), World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Price Decline by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Li-Ion Battery Pack Energy Density Improvement by Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024

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