Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid,
and Battery Electric Vehicle Sales and Vehicles in Use: 2014-2023

The rapidly changing market for electric vehicles (EVs), which includes hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric vehicles (HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs), is a small but important part of the global automotive industry. Governments worldwide are keen to see increasing penetrations of EVs due to the environmental, economic, and energy security benefits they provide. Consequently, governments have both pushed automakers to develop EVs and incentivized citizens to buy them.

Furthermore, the market for vehicles that reduce fuel consumption is becoming more competitive due to other fuel efficient and alternative fuel technologies. Of note are fuel efficiency advances made to conventional internal combustion engines (ICEs) through stop-start technologies, the use of lightweight materials for body panels and chassis, engine downsizing, and growing interest in diesel. Growth in HEV, PHEV, and BEV platforms will be contingent upon expanding EV availability outside of the small hatchback segment into larger vehicle formats such as SUVs and trucks. According to Navigant Research, the global light duty EV market is expected to grow from 2.7 million vehicle sales in 2014 to 6.4 million in 2023 under a base scenario.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall light duty vehicle (LDV) market and light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use, segmented by scenario (conservative, base, and aggressive), world region, key country, drivetrain, class, and automaker, extend through 2023. Also provided are forecasts by automaker and vehicle class (luxury vs. economy), along with discussion of the underlying forecast assumptions such as lithium ion (Li-ion) energy density, Li-ion battery prices, and retail fuel prices.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the growth rates of light duty hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2023?
  • How many light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will be on the roads through 2023?
  • What are the key factors driving growth in the light duty electric vehicle (EV) market?
  • How will light duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV sales be affected by other fuel efficient and alternative fuel technologies?
  • Which HEV, PHEV, and BEV models are expected to be launched between 2014 and 2016?
  • What are the current government policies regarding EVs and how will changes affect sales?
  • How will fuel prices and advances in lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries affect light duty EV sales?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Electric vehicle (EV) component manufacturers and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Report Scope and Definitions

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions 

2.1  Background

2.2  Report Scope and Definitions

2.3  LDV Market Forecast Methodology

2.4  EV Market Forecast Methodology

2.4.1   Automaker EV Roadmaps

   2.4.1.1  Strategy

   2.4.1.2  Body Type and Class

   2.4.1.3  Presence

   2.4.1.4  EV Availability

2.4.2   EV ROI

   2.4.2.1  Vehicle Pricing

   2.4.2.2  Government Policy

   2.4.2.3  Fuel Prices

   2.4.2.4  Vehicle Characteristics

3. Market Forecasts

3.1  LDVs

3.2  EVs

3.2.1   HEVs

   3.2.1.1  Forecasts by Geography

   3.2.1.2  Forecasts by Automaker

3.2.2   PEVs

   3.2.2.1  Forecasts by Geography

   3.2.2.2  Forecasts by Automaker

3.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light Duty EV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Prices by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Energy Density by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share by Country, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty PEV Sales vs. HEV Sales, Base Scenario, China: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty Luxury HEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Country, World Markets: 2014
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Country, Base Scenario, Top Five European Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Market Share by Automaker, World Markets: 2014
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Tesla Light Duty PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023

List of Tables

  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, North America: 2014-2016
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Europe: 2014-2016
  • Anticipated HEV, PHEV, and BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: 2014-2016
  • Light Duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV Incentives by Country, World Markets: 2014
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Price of Crude Oil by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Prices by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Li-Ion Battery Energy Density by Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty Vehicles in Use by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Luxury Light Duty HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty BEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty PHEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023
  • Light Duty HEV Sales by Automaker, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2014-2023

Report Details

  • Pages: 36
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    91
  • Release Date: 4Q 2014

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