Emerging Wind Markets Assessment

Regional Drivers and Country Forecasts for Africa and
the Former Soviet Union: 2013-2023

The fundamental drivers for renewable energy development have remained constant in recent years, but the wind industry is still feeling the effects from the global financial crisis of 2009 and the subsequent economic recession. OEMs are thus eying opportunities from the emerging markets in two of the world’s largest territories, Africa and the former Soviet Union. Historically, these regions have not been mainstream wind power markets. With strong political support, expected rising electricity demand, and demand for energy diversification, however, the outlook for wind power development in Africa and the former Soviet Union is optimistic.

Countries like South Africa and Russia, the largest economies in each region, have been bright spots for wind power development. The opportunities rising in other countries in the two regions will help reduce the exposure of OEMs to ups and downs in the mainstream wind power markets. Since Africa and the former Soviet Union are linking economic growth to a sustainable and green pathway, the wind power potential in these regions is promising. Navigant Research forecasts that if most wind plants under construction with planned commissioning go online as scheduled, wind power capacity in the 10 selected emerging markets in Africa and the former Soviet Union will grow from 463.5 MW in 2013 to 3.4 GW annually by 2023.

This Navigant Research report provides a comprehensive view of the wind power market dynamics at play in 10 emerging markets in Africa and the former Soviet Union. It offers country profiles that include a broad description of each country’s macroeconomy, energy structure, and utility system, as well as detailed information about wind resources, latest market status, regulatory framework, local supply chain, and wind-related infrastructures. Market forecasts for wind power installations, capacity, and market share in the 10 selected markets in Africa and the former Soviet Union, segmented by country, company, and fuel source, extend through 2023. Outlooks based on current project pipelines and drivers and challenges identified in each market are also included in each profile.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the top markets for wind power in the 10 selected countries in Africa and the former Soviet Union?
  • What is the outlook for wind power development in each country?
  • How much wind power capacity is installed in the 10 emerging markets in Africa and the former Soviet Union?
  • Who are the project developers and signed turbine suppliers?
  • How big is the wind project pipeline in each country?
  • How will national energy plans and regulatory frameworks drive demand for wind power in each country?
  • What is the status of the local wind supply chains and infrastructure in each market?
  • Who are the key investors in the 10 selected wind power markets in Africa and the former Soviet Union?
Who needs this report?
  • Wind turbine OEMs
  • Wind turbine component, subcomponent, and materials manufacturers
  • Wind project developers, owners, and operators
  • Professional service providers
  • Policymakers and regulators
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

Preface

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  On the Horizon

1.3  Wind Power Market Summary by Region/Country

1.4  Strong Growth from 2014 Onward

2. Wind Market by Country: Africa

2.1  South Africa Market Overview

2.1.1   Energy Structure

2.1.1.1  Power Generation Mix

2.1.1.2  Current Utility System

2.1.1.3  Wind Resources

2.1.2   Market Status by End of 2012

2.1.2.1  Demand Side

2.1.2.2  Supply Side

2.1.3   Regulatory Framework

2.1.3.1  Incentives

2.1.3.2  Local Content Requirement

2.1.4   Notable Wind Market Players

2.1.4.1  Local Supply Chain

2.1.4.1.1.   Wind Turbine Supplier

2.1.4.1.2.   Components Supplier

2.1.5   Financing

2.1.6   Wind-Related Infrastructure

2.1.6.1  Transmission Lines

2.1.6.2  Road Network

2.1.7   Market Outlook

2.1.7.1  Drivers

2.1.7.2  Challenges

2.1.7.3  Project Pipeline

2.1.7.4  Forecast 2013-2023

2.2  Morocco Market Overview

2.2.1   Energy Structure

2.2.1.1  Power Generation Mix

2.2.1.2  Current Utility System

2.2.1.3  Wind Resources

2.2.2   Market Status by End of 2012

2.2.2.1  Demand Side

2.2.2.2  Supply Side

2.2.3   Regulatory Framework

2.2.3.1  Call for Tenders by ONEE

2.2.3.2  The EnergiPro Program

2.2.3.3  Other Political Support for Wind Power

2.2.4   Notable Wind Market Players

2.2.4.1  Local Supply Chain

2.2.4.1.1.   Wind Turbine Supplier

2.2.4.1.2.   Components Supplier

2.2.4.2  Developers

2.2.5   Financing

2.2.6   Wind-Related Infrastructure

2.2.6.1  Transmission Lines

2.2.7   Market Outlook

2.2.7.1  Drivers

2.2.7.2  Challenges

2.2.7.3  Project Pipeline

2.2.7.4  2013-2023 Forecast

2.3  Egypt  Market Overview

2.3.1   Energy Structure

2.3.1.1  Power Generation Mix

2.3.1.2  Current Utility System

2.3.1.3  Wind Resources

2.3.2   Market Status by End of 2012

2.3.2.1  Demand Side

2.3.2.2  Supply Side

2.3.3   Regulatory Framework

2.3.3.1  Wind Energy Scale-Up Project

2.3.3.2  Project Approval

2.3.4   Notable Wind Market Players

2.3.4.1  Local Supply Chain

2.3.4.2  Wind Turbine Supplier

2.3.4.3  Components Supplier

2.3.4.4  Developer

2.3.5   Financing

2.3.6   Wind-Related Infrastructure

2.3.6.1  Transmission Lines

2.3.7   Market Outlook

2.3.7.1  Drivers

2.3.7.2  Challenges

2.3.7.3  Project Pipeline

2.3.7.4  Forecast

2.4  Tunisia Market Overview

2.4.1   Energy Structure

2.4.1.1  Power Generation Mix

2.4.1.2  Current Utility System

2.4.1.3  Wind Resources

2.4.2   Market Status by End of 2012

2.4.2.1  Demand Side

2.4.2.2  Supply Side

2.4.3   Regulatory Framework

2.4.3.1  Incentives

2.4.3.2  Renewable Energy Targets

2.4.4   Notable Wind Market Players

2.4.4.1  Local Supply Chain

2.4.4.2  Developers

2.4.5   Financing

2.4.6   Wind-Related Infrastructure

2.4.6.1  Transmission Lines

2.4.7   Market Outlook

2.4.7.1  Drivers

2.4.7.2  Challenges

2.4.7.3  Project Pipeline

2.4.7.4  2013-2023 Forecast

2.5  Libya Market Overview

2.5.1   Energy Structure

2.5.1.1  Power Generation Mix

2.5.1.2  Current Utility System

2.5.1.3  Wind Resources

2.5.2   Market Status by End of 2012

2.5.3   Regulatory Framework

2.5.3.1  Incentives

2.5.3.2  Government Renewable Energy Tariff

2.5.4   Wind-Related Infrastructure

2.5.4.1  Transmission Lines

2.5.5   Market Outlook

2.5.5.1  Drivers

2.5.5.2  Challenges

2.5.5.3  Project Pipeline

2.5.5.4  2013-2023 Forecast

2.6  Ethiopia Market Overview

2.6.1   Energy Structure

2.6.1.1  Power Generation Mix

2.6.1.2  Current Utility System

2.6.1.3  Wind Resources

2.6.2   Market Status by End of 2012

2.6.2.1  Demand Side

2.6.2.2  Supply Side

2.6.3   Regulatory Framework

2.6.3.1  Incentives

2.6.3.2  Government Renewable Energy Target

2.6.4   Notable Wind Market Players

2.6.4.1  Local Supply Chain

2.6.4.1.1.   Wind Turbine Supplier

2.6.4.1.2.   Components Supplier

2.6.4.2  Research and Development

2.6.4.3  Developer and Investor

2.6.5   Wind-Related Infrastructure

2.6.5.1  Transmission Lines

2.6.5.2  Transport Network

2.6.6   Market Outlook

2.6.6.1  Drivers

2.6.6.2  Challenges

2.6.6.3  Project Pipeline

2.6.6.4  2013-2023 Forecast

2.7  Kenya Market Overview

2.7.1   Energy Structure

2.7.1.1  Power Generation Mix

2.7.1.2  Current Utility System

2.7.1.3  Wind Resources

2.7.2   Market Status by End of 2012

2.7.2.1  Demand Side

2.7.2.2  Supply Side

2.7.3   Regulatory Framework

2.7.3.1  Feed-In Tariff

2.7.3.2  Project Approval

2.7.4   Notable Wind Market Players

2.7.4.1  Developers

2.7.5   Financing

2.7.6   Wind-Related Infrastructure

2.7.6.1  Transmission Lines

2.7.6.2  Road Network

2.7.6.3  Ports

2.7.7   Market Outlook

2.7.7.1  Drivers

2.7.7.2  Challenges

2.7.7.3  Project Pipeline

2.7.7.4  2013-2023 Forecast

3. Wind Market by Country: Former Soviet Union

3.1  Ukraine Market Overview

3.1.1   Energy Structure

3.1.1.1  Power Generation Mix

3.1.1.2  Current Utility System

3.1.1.3  Wind Resources

3.1.2   Market Status by End of 2012

3.1.2.1  Demand Side

3.1.2.2  Supply Side

3.1.3   Regulatory Framework

3.1.3.1  Government Support in 1990s

3.1.3.2  Feed-In Tariff

3.1.3.3  Taxation

3.1.3.4  Local Content Requirement

3.1.3.5  Project Approval

3.1.4   Notable Wind Market Players

3.1.4.1  Local Supply Chain

3.1.4.1.1.   Wind Turbine Supplier

3.1.4.1.2.   Component Supplier

 3.1.4.2     Developers

3.1.5   Financing

3.1.6   Wind-Related Infrastructure

3.1.6.1  Transmission Lines

3.1.7   Market Outlook

3.1.7.1  Drivers

3.1.7.2  Challenges

3.1.7.3  Project Pipeline

3.1.7.4  Forecast 2013-2023

3.2  Russia Market Overview

3.2.1   Energy Structure

3.2.1.1  Power Generation Mix

3.2.1.2  Current Utility System

3.2.1.3  Wind Resources

3.2.2   Market Status by End of 2012

3.2.2.1  Demand Side

3.2.2.2  Supply Side

3.2.3   Regulatory Framework

3.2.3.1  Incentives

3.2.3.2  LCR

3.2.3.3  Maiden RES Tender

3.2.4   Notable Wind Market Players

3.2.4.1  Local Supply Chain

3.2.4.1.1.   Wind Turbine Supplier

3.2.4.1.2.   Component Supplier

3.2.4.2  Developers

3.2.5   Market Outlook

3.2.5.1  Drivers

3.2.5.2  Challenges

3.2.5.3  Project Pipeline

3.2.5.4  Forecast 2013-2023

3.3  Kazakhstan Market Overview

3.3.1   Energy Structure

3.3.1.1  Power Generation Mix

3.3.1.2  Current Utility System

3.3.1.3  Wind Resources

3.3.2   Market Status by the End of 2012

3.3.2.1  Demand Side

3.3.2.2  Supply Side

3.3.3   Regulatory Framework

3.3.3.1  FITs

3.3.3.2  Renewable Energy Targets

3.3.3.3  Project Approval

3.3.4   Notable Wind Market Players

3.3.4.1  Local Supply Chain

3.3.4.1.1.   Wind Turbine Supplier

3.3.4.1.2.   Component Supplier

3.3.4.2  Developers

3.3.4.3  Financing

3.3.5   Wind-Related Infrastructure

3.3.5.1  Transmission Lines

3.3.6   Market Outlook

3.3.6.1  Drivers

3.3.6.2  Challenges

3.3.6.3  Project Pipeline

3.3.6.4  2013-2023 Forecast

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. List of Charts and Tables
7. Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations by Country, Africa and the Former Soviet Union: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, South Africa: 2010
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, South Africa: 2002-2012
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, South Africa: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, South Africa: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Morocco: January 2013
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Morocco: 2000-2012
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Morocco: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Morocco: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Egypt: 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Egypt: 1992-2012
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Egypt: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Egypt: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Tunisia: 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Tunisia: 2000-2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Tunisia: 2013-2023
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Libya: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Ethiopia: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Ethiopia: 2002-2012
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Ethiopia: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Ethiopia: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Kenya: June 2013
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Kenya: 1993-2012
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Kenya: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Kenya: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Ukraine: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Ukraine: 1992-2012
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Ukraine: End of 2012
  • Breakdown of Components to Meet LCRs in Ukraine
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Ukraine: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Russia: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Russia: 1993-2012
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Russia: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Russia: 2013-2023
  • Electricity Generation by Fuel Source, Kazakhstan: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Kazakhstan: 2013-2023
  • South Africa Wind Resource Map
  • Morocco Wind Resource Map
  • Egypt Wind Resource Map
  • Libya Wind Resource Map
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Russia: End of 2012
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Russia: 2013-2023
  • Annual Wind Power Capacity Installations, Kazakhstan: 1992-2012
  • Tunisia Wind Resource Map
  • Wind Turbine Market Share by OEM, Kazakhstan: End of 2012
  • Kazakhstan Wind Resource Map
  • Ethiopia Wind Resource Map
  • Kenya Wind Resource Map

List of Tables

  • Emerging Wind Power Market Summary
  • Key Demographic Figures, South Africa: 2012
  • SA DoE REIPPP Rounds
  • South Africa Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Morocco: 2012
  • Wind Projects Supplied with DLM Towers
  • Consortia Pre-Qualified to Tender for Large Wind Projects
  • Morocco Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Egypt: 2012
  • Egypt Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Tunisia: 2012
  • Socomenin Wind Towers Supply Track Record
  • Tunisia Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Libya: 2012
  • Libya Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Ethiopia: 2012
  • Ethiopia Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Kenya: 2012
  • Key Players in Kenya’s Electricity Sector
  • Confirmed Average Wind Speeds for Selected Sites in Kenya
  • Kenya Wind Feed-In Tariff
  • Ethiopia Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Ukraine: 2012
  • Green Tariff Rates for Electricity Generated from Wind: Effective April 1, 2013
  • Ukraine Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Russia: 2012
  • Key State and State-Related Authorities in Russia’s Energy Sector
  • Russia’s Annual Wind Energy Targets and LCR
  • Breakdown of Turbine Components to Meet LCRs in Russia
  • Russia RES Wind Tender
  • Russia Project Pipeline
  • Key Demographic Figures, Kazakhstan: 2012
  • Kazakhstan Project Pipeline
  • Wind Power Capacity, Selected 10 Countries, Africa and the Former Soviet Union: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, South Africa: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Morocco: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Egypt: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Tunisia: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Libya: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Ethiopia: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Kenya: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Ukraine: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Russia: 2012-2023
  • Wind Power Capacity, Kazakhstan: 2012-2023

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