Energy Efficient Lighting for Commercial Markets

LED Lighting Adoption and Global Outlook for LED, Fluorescent, Halogen, and HID Lamps and Luminaires in Commercial Buildings: Market Analysis and Forecasts

The market for commercial lighting is on the verge of a major transformation. Falling prices and improving quality for light-emitting diode (LED) lighting has begun to drive widespread adoption of this technology. The speed of this transformation promises to be faster than previous transformations to new lamp types, as this one technology appears likely to surpass all others in nearly every metric of quality and efficiency.

Revenue from LED sales, however, will not be enough to keep the big lighting companies afloat. Due to the much longer lifespan of LED lamps, Navigant Research forecasts that overall revenue from lamp sales will actually decrease in the coming decade, even as a greater portion of sales goes to more expensive lamp types. To avoid this inevitable decline, companies are broadening their offerings to include lighting controls and lighting services. Navigant Research forecasts that revenue from LED lamp sales will rise to $8.7 billion by 2021, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2%. Overall, however, revenue from lamp sales will stay essentially flat through 2017 before beginning a steady decline.

This Navigant Research report examines the worldwide market for energy-efficient lighting in commercial buildings, including LED, fluorescent, halogen, and high-intensity discharge lamps and luminaires. The report details the market drivers for these technologies, including electricity costs, green building certifications, and improved controls, as well as the remaining barriers to adoption. Profiles of leading industry players are provided, along with global forecasts for unit shipments and revenue through 2021, segmented by region and by lamp type.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the key drivers encouraging the rapid adoption of LED lighting?
  • How are established and startup lighting companies positioning themselves for success in this changing market?
  • How will the installed base of lighting in commercial buildings shift over the coming decade?
  • What factors influence lighting decisions in different commercial building types and different regions of the world?
  • Which countries have laws and regulations that encourage the use of energy-efficient lighting?
  • What is the outlook for lamps and luminaires in each world geographic region?
  • What technology trends may impact the future of the lighting market?
Who needs this report?
  • Lamp and luminaire vendors
  • Commercial building owners and managers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Standards development organizations
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1     Introduction

1.2     Key Market Drivers

1.3     Market Overview

1.4     Forecast Highlights

2. Market Issues

2.1     Market Overview

2.2     Considerations by Commercial Building Types

2.2.1     Office

2.2.2     Retail

2.2.3     Education

2.2.4     Healthcare

2.2.5     Hotels & Restaurants

2.2.6     Institutional/Assembly

2.2.7     Warehouse

2.2.8     Transport

2.3     Market Drivers

2.3.1     Falling LED Costs

2.3.2     Energy Codes

2.3.3     Incandescent Phaseout

2.3.4     Product Certifications

2.3.4.1    Illuminating Engineering Society of North America (IESNA)

2.3.4.2    Zhaga Consortium Interface Specifications

2.3.4.3    DesignLights Consortium (DLC)

2.3.4.4    ENERGY STAR

2.3.4.5    Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI)

2.3.5     Green Building Certifications

2.3.6     Electricity Costs

2.3.7     Rebates and Incentives

2.3.8     Improved Controllability

2.3.9     R&D Focus

2.4     Market Barriers and Challenges

2.4.1     Financial Barriers

2.4.2     Customer Mistrust/Perception of Quality

2.4.3     Construction Market Uncertainties

2.4.4     Engineering Challenges

2.4.5     Underwriters Laboratories (UL) Certification

2.5     Cost Drivers

2.5.1     Policy Influences

2.5.2     Supply Influences

2.5.3     LED Cost Reductions

2.5.4     Cost per Lamp

2.6     Drivers and Trends by Geography

2.6.1     United States

2.6.2     Canada

2.6.3     Europe

2.6.3.1    Germany

2.6.3.2    United Kingdom

2.6.3.3    France

2.6.4     Asia Pacific

2.6.4.1    Japan

2.6.4.2    Australia

2.6.4.3    China

2.6.4.4    South Korea

2.6.5     Latin America

2.6.5.1    Brazil

2.6.6     Middle East & Africa

2.6.6.1    South Africa

3. Technology Issues

3.1     Technical Definitions and Measures of Efficiency

3.1.1     Efficacy, Efficiency, and Coefficient of Utilization

3.1.2     Application Efficiency

3.1.3     Lamp Life

3.1.4     Color Rendering Index, R9, and Color Consistency

3.1.5     Pupil Lumens

3.1.6     Ambient and Device Temperature Effects

3.1.6.1    Fluorescents and Low Temperatures

3.1.6.2    LEDs and High Temperatures

3.2     State of Efficient Light Sources

3.2.1     Linear Fluorescent

3.2.2     Compact Fluorescent Lamps

3.2.3     Induction

3.2.4     High-Intensity Discharge

3.2.5     Light-Emitting Diodes

3.2.5.1    Substrate Issues

3.2.5.1.1.   Sapphire

3.2.5.1.2.   Silicon Carbide

3.2.5.1.3.   Silicon

3.2.5.1.4.   Gallium Nitride

3.2.6     Organic Light-Emitting Diodes

3.3     Technology Trends

3.3.1     Task/Ambient Lighting

3.3.2     Flexible, Integrated Lighting

3.3.3     DC Power Distribution

3.3.4     Integrated LED Lamp/Luminaire

3.3.5     Tunable Color

3.3.6     Phosphor-Free LEDs

3.3.7     Lighting Controls

4. Key Industry Players

4.1     Introduction

4.2     Top Lamp Companies

4.2.1     GE Lighting

4.2.2     OSRAM

4.2.3     Philips Lighting

4.3     Large Lighting Companies

4.3.1     Acuity Brands, Inc.

4.3.2     Cooper Lighting

4.3.3     Cree

4.3.4     Hubbell Lighting, Inc.

4.3.5     Nichia Corp.

4.4     Small Lighting Companies

4.4.1     CoolEdge Lighting

4.4.2     Digital Lumens, Inc.

4.4.3     Lunera Lighting, Inc.

4.4.4     Soraa

4.4.5     The Lighting Quotient

4.5     Other Industry Participants

4.6     Industry Associations

4.7     Government Regulators and Programs

4.7.1     U.S. Department of Energy Programs

4.7.2     European Union Programs

4.7.3     Other Regions

5. Market Forecasts

5.1     Forecast Overview

5.2     Forecast Components

5.2.1     Commercial Building Floor Space

5.2.2     Typical Lighting Power Density

5.2.3     Average Lamp Characteristics

5.2.4     Lamps per Square Foot

5.2.5     Lamp Type Distribution

5.2.6     Global Installed Base: 2012

5.2.7     Share of Lighting in New Construction and Retrofit Projects

5.2.8     Global Installed Base: 2013-2021

5.2.9     Lamp Replacements

5.3     Unit Shipments, Luminaires and Lamps

5.4     Revenue Forecasts by Region

5.4.1     North America

5.4.2     Europe

5.4.3     Asia Pacific

5.4.4     Latin America

5.4.5     Middle East & Africa

5.5     LED Revenue by Region

5.6     LED Revenue by Building Type

5.7     Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7
. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8
. Table of Contents
9
. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Cost per Kilolumen by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Typical Fluorescent Lumen Output, Percentage of Maximum, by Temperature
  • Estimated Outdoor Pole-Mounted LED Life Expectancy versus Ambient Temperature
  • Commercial Building Floor Space by Building Type, World Markets: 2012-2021
  • Share of Installed Base by Lamp Type, North America: 2012
  • Share of Lamps in Retrofit Projects by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Luminaire Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013‑2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, North America: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Europe: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Asia Pacific: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Latin America: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Middle East & Africa: 2013‑2021
  • LED Lamp Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • LED Lamp Revenue by Building Type, World Markets: 2013‑2021
  • Case Study – GE Installation of LED Lighting in Canadian Hotel
  • Case Study – GE Installation of T5 Lighting in Malaysian Warehouse
  • Efficient Lighting Policy Status, World Map
  • Zhaga Consortium Specification Book 2 Diagram
  • LED Costs by Component: 2011-2020
  • Example of Application Efficiency – Cove Lighting
  • Components of an LED
  • Cree Employee with SiC Wafers
  • Depiction of an LED Using a GaN Substrate
  • Proposed OLED Lighting Designs, Acuity Brands
  • Case Study Demonstrating Task/Ambient Lighting in an Office Space
  • Examples of Flexible, Integrated Lighting – Clockwise from left: GE’s BL Series LED Luminaires, OSRAM’s Prototype Airabesc, Envol’s Blackbody Helix, and Philips’ O’Leaf

List of Tables

  • International Energy Conservation Code, Changes from 2009 to 2012
  • Minimum Efficacy Requirements in the U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007
  • Typical Performance of Lighting Technologies
  • Average Lamp Life by Technology
  • Pupil Lumens for Lamp Technologies
  • Typical Fluorescent Lumen Output by Temperature
  • Estimated Outdoor Pole-Mounted LED Life Expectancy versus Ambient Temperature
  • GE Lighting SWOT Analysis
  • OSRAM SWOT Analysis
  • Philips Lighting SWOT Analysis
  • Other Industry Participants
  • Summary of Industry Associations
  • Summary of U.S. DOE Regulators and Programs
  • Summary of EU Regulators and Programs
  • Summary of Regulators in Other Regions
  • Average Characteristics of Individual Lamps Used in Forecast by Lamp Type
  • Number of Lamps Required per SF to Meet Light Requirements by Lamp Type, Asia Pacific: 2012
  • Commercial Building Floor Space by Building Type, World Markets: 2012-2021
  • Typical Lighting Power Density for Commercial Segments by Region, World Markets: 2012
  • Share of Installed Base by Lamp Type, North America: 2012
  • Installed Base of Luminaires by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2012
  • Installed Base of Lamps by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2012
  • Share of Luminaires in Retrofit Projects by Lamp Type, Office Building, Europe: 2013-2021
  • Installed Base of Luminaires by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Installed Base of Lamps by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013‑2021
  • Lamp Replacements per Year on Installed Base, World Markets: 2012
  • Luminaire Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013‑2021
  • Luminaire Revenue by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013‑2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Number of Lamps Required per SF to Meet Light Requirements, by Lamp Type, North America: 2012
  • Number of Lamps Required per SF to Meet Light Requirements, by Lamp Type, Europe: 2012
  • Number of Lamps Required per SF to Meet Light Requirements, by Lamp Type, Asia Pacific: 2012
  • Number of Lamps Required per SF to Meet Light Requirements, by Lamp Type, Latin America: 2012
  • Number of Lamps Required per SF to Meet Light Requirements, by Lamp Type, Middle East & Africa: 2012
  • Installed Base of Lamps by Lamp Type, North America: 2012
  • Installed Base of Lamps by Lamp Type,  Europe: 2012
  • Installed Base of Lamps by Lamp Type,  Asia Pacific: 2012
  • Installed Base of Lamps by Lamp Type, Latin America: 2012
  • Installed Base of Lamps by Lamp Type, Middle East & Africa: 2012
  • Luminaire Prices by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Prices by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Luminaire Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, North America: 2013-2021
  • Luminaire Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Europe: 2013-2021
  • Luminaire Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Asia Pacific: 2013‑2021
  • Luminaire Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Latin America: 2013-2021
  • Luminaire Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, North America: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Europe: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Asia Pacific: 2013‑2021
  • Lamp Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Latin America: 2013‑2021
  • Lamp Unit Shipments by Lamp Type, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2021
  • Luminaire Revenue by Lamp Type, North America: 2013‑2021
  • Luminaire Revenue by Lamp Type, Europe: 2013-2021
  • Luminaire Revenue by Lamp Type, Asia Pacific: 2013‑2021
  • Luminaire Revenue by Lamp Type, Latin America: 2013‑2021
  • Luminaire Revenue by Lamp Type, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, North America: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Europe: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Asia Pacific: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Latin America: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Revenue by Lamp Type, Middle East & Africa: 2013‑2021
  • LED Lamp Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • LED Lamp Revenue by Building Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Lamp Cost per Kilolumen by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021
  • Share of Lamps in Retrofit Projects by Lamp Type, World Markets: 2013-2021

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