Fuel Cell Vehicles

Light Duty Vehicles, Transit Buses, and Scooters:
Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The fuel cell vehicle market is in the midst of ramping up to commercialization. As such, the market appears fairly quiet, with annual sales well under 500 in 2011 and in 2012. However, much needs to happen behind the scenes for the industry to meet its 2015 commercialization target for light duty fuel cell vehicles (FCVs). Automakers planning to meet that 2015 target are in the process of engineering out costs and optimizing performance, and a few forward-looking governments are preparing the infrastructure and regulatory environment needed for commercial FCVs. Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and the Nordic countries have taken the lead, with a variety of “H2Mobility” programs. The United States has fallen out of the leadership spot, although the state of California continues to make preparations.

The biggest challenge for automakers will be reaching sufficient volume to bring down system and balance of plant costs – which is leading several automakers, including Daimler, to form technology partnerships. The transit bus market also needs high volume to bring down costs. Europe continues to lead on fuel cell bus deployments, but annual orders are still well under 100, and the market needs to reach 1,000 orders annually to see major cost reductions. Finally, the global scooter market is in the millions, and fuel cells continue to be developed in an effort to capture some of that market. Navigant Research forecasts that worldwide sales of FCVs will reach the 1,000 mark in 2015 and then begin a period of strong growth, surpassing 2 million vehicles annually by 2030.

This Navigant Research report outlines in detail the state of policies and programs that will support FCV deployment and the commercialization plans of the major industry players. The report examines the state of technology in reaching application cost targets, and profiles innovative startups that could disrupt the market. The report also details conditions in three major emerging bus markets (Brazil, China, and India) and provides a long-term forecast for fuel cell light duty vehicles, buses, and scooters, segmented by region, through 2030.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the current state of automakers’ fuel cell vehicle programs and plans?
  • What is the timeline for commercial fuel cell cars and buses and how has it changed in the last 2 years?
  • What is the status of fuel cell technology in meeting commercial cost targets for cars, buses and scooters?
  • What is the state of policy initiatives worldwide needed to help this market achieve commercialization?
  • Which regions and countries are leading establishing roadmaps and public-private partnerships to create the infrastructure needed for commercial rollout?
  • What is the state of worldwide infrastructure development efforts?
Who needs this report?
  • Vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers
  • Fuel cell stack and system manufacturers
  • Fuel cell sub-stack component manufacturers/suppliers
  • Fuel cell balance of plant suppliers
  • Hydrogen infrastructure providers
  • Electric drive integrators, manufacturers, and component manufacturers
  • Battery manufacturers
  • Industry associations
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicles

1.3   Fuel Cell Buses

1.4   Fuel Cell Scooters

2. Market Issues

2.1   Light Duty Vehicles

2.1.1  Heading to 2015: The State of OEM FCV Development

2.1.2  Startups and Innovative Business Models

2.1.3  Plug-In Electric Vehicles: Competing or Complementary?

2.2   Buses

2.2.1  Technology Developers versus OEMs

2.2.2  Battery Electric Buses: Competing or Complementary?

2.2.3  Emerging Bus Markets

2.2.3.1 Brazil

2.2.3.2 China

2.2.3.3 India

2.3   Scooters

2.3.1  Infrastructure

2.3.2  Competitors

3. Global Policies and Programs on Fuel Cell Vehicles

3.1   Europe

3.1.1  European Union Policy

3.1.2  United Kingdom

3.1.3  Germany

3.1.4  Nordic Countries

3.2   Asia Pacific

3.2.1  Japan

3.2.2  South Korea

3.2.3  China

3.2.4  India

3.3   North America

3.3.1  United States

3.3.1.1 California

3.3.2  Canada

4. Technology Issues

4.1   Light Duty Vehicles

4.2   Bus Targets

4.3   Scooter Targets

5. Key Industry Players

5.1   Introduction

5.2   Fuel Cell Companies

5.2.1  Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation

5.2.2  Ballard Power Systems

5.2.3  ClearEdge Power

5.2.4  Hydrogenics

5.2.5  Intelligent Energy

5.2.6  Oorja Protonics

5.3   Infrastructure Providers

5.3.1  Air Liquide

5.3.2  Air Products

5.3.3  Hydrogenics

5.3.4  ITM Power

5.3.5  Linde

5.3.6  Proton OnSite

5.4   Automotive OEMs

5.4.1  BMW

5.4.2  Daimler

5.4.3  General Motors

5.4.4  Honda

5.4.5  Hyundai-Kia

5.4.6  Toyota

5.4.7  Volkswagen

5.5   Others

5.5.1  BAE Systems (Hybrid Systems Developer)

5.5.2  Microcab

5.5.3  Riversimple

5.5.4  Tata

6. Market Forecasts

6.1   Overview of Forecasting Methodology

6.1.1  Forecasting Variables

6.1.2  Forecasting Pivot Points

6.2   Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicles

6.3   Fuel Cell Buses

6.4   Region of Manufacture: Sales, Capacity, and Revenue

6.5   Fuel Cell Scooters

6.6   Conclusions and Recommendations

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Cumulative Plug-In Electric Vehicle Sales by Region, Top Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual ICE Scooter Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2013
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Key Country, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013‑2020
  • Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2020‑2030
  • Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Key Country, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region of System Manufacture, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • LDV and Bus Fuel Cell Capacity Shipped by Region of System Manufacture, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Fuel Cell Vehicle Revenue by Region of Vehicle Manufacture, World Markets: 2015-2030
  • Fuel Cell Scooter Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Key Country, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Key Country, World Markets: 2020-2030
  • GM Powertrain Matrix
  • Matrix of Vehicle Options, Range, and CO2 Emissions, Germany: 2010-2050
  • NREL Data Collection Results and DOE/DOT Bus Targets

List of Tables

  • European Union GHG Reduction Targets from 1990 Levels by Sector: 2005-2050
  • Government-Owned FCV Fleet Program, South Korea: 2006-2013
  • 100 kW Low-Temperature PEM Fuel Cell Subsystem Cost: 2011
  • Comparison of Electric and Gas-Powered Motorcycle and Scooter Costs: 2012
  • Fuel Cell Vehicle Market Phases, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Annual ICE Scooter Sales by Region, World Markets: 2010-2013
  • Cumulative Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales by Region, Top Markets: 2013-2020
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Key Country, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013‑2030
  • Fuel Cell Bus Sales by Key Country, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Fuel Cell Scooter Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Fuel Cell Light Duty Vehicle Sales by Region of System Manufacture, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Fuel Cell LDV and Bus Capacity Shipped by Region of System Manufacture, World Markets: 2013-2030
  • Fuel Cell Vehicle Revenue by Region of Vehicle Manufacture, World Markets: 2012-2030

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