Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) are part of the continuum of electric drive technologies, which are projected to capture an increasingly large share of the global passenger car and transit bus markets. For the passenger car market, fuel cells offer the benefits of zero emissions operation without the range and charging limitations of pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs). The fuel cell car market is now in the ramp-up phase to commercialization, anticipated by automakers to happen around 2015. The primary barriers for this market are cost and infrastructure deployment. Early adoption is likely to be focused in Japan, Germany, and California, where there is significant infrastructure investment planned.

Transit buses have been used as a test bed for fuel cell technology and lag somewhat behind cars in the timeframe for commercial viability. Transit fuel cell buses offer zero emissions and low noise operation, as well as greater fuel efficiency. Projections are for commercially viable transit buses to follow that of LDVs, with this market more dependent on subsidies or incentives for adoption than the car market.

This Pike Research report analyzes opportunities and challenges in the development of commercially viable fuel cell cars, buses, and trucks. The report provides an examination of the key market drivers and barriers for FCV development in the face of competition from incumbent internal combustion engine vehicles and new plug-in electric vehicles. The report includes a status update on the progress of fuel cell R&D toward meeting commercial technical and cost targets for cars and buses. The report also covers key countries’ policies promoting development and adoption of FCVs, strategies and plans of major industry players, and discussion of the vehicle segments and drivetrain configurations under development. The report forecasts global pre-commercial deployments of LDVs and buses through 2014, global commercial sales of LDVs and buses from 2015 through 2020, and potential revenue from fuel cell LDVs from 2015 through 2020.

Key questions addressed:

• What are the key vehicle segments where fuel cells offer a value proposition?
• What are the different types of fuel cell systems used in cars, trucks and buses?
• Why are automakers developing fuel cell cars when plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles are commercially available?
• What is the current timeline for commercial fuel cell cars and buses?
• What is the status of fuel cell technology in meeting commercial technical and cost targets?
• Which governments are supporting fuel cell car and bus development and adoption?
• Who are the key industry players in the fuel car, truck and bus markets?

Who needs this report?

• Vehicle manufacturers
• Vehicle component suppliers
• Fuel cell companies
• Electric drive manufacturers
• Battery manufacturers
• Hydrogen infrastructure providers
• Platinum suppliers
• Government agencies
• Industry associations
• Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

2.1 Introduction to Fuel Cells for Passenger Vehicles

2.1.1 History of Fuel Cell Vehicle Development

2.2  Current Status of Vehicle Development

2.2.1 Drivers for Current FCV Development Activities

2.2.2 Passenger Vehicles

2.2.2.1 Full-Size Passenger Cars

2.2.2.2 Microcars, City Cars, and NEVs

2.2.2.3 Major Demonstration Programs

2.2.3 Fleet Vehicles

2.2.4 U.S. Military

2.2.5 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks

2.2.6 Transit Buses

2.2.6.1 Full-Size

2.2.6.2 Midibuses or Shuttle Buses

2.2.6.3 Articulated

2.2.7 Demonstration Projects

3. Technology Issues

3.1 Fuel Cell Technology Basics

3.1.1 PEM

3.1.2 SOFC

3.2 Fuel Cell System Configurations

3.2.1 Fuel Cell Dominant

3.2.2 Fuel Cell Range Extender

3.2.3 Fuel Cell Auxiliary Power Unit (APU)

3.2.4 Hydrogen ICE

3.3 Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology

3.4 Hydrogen Storage

3.5 Hydrogen Production

4. Market  Drivers and Barriers

4.1 Emissions and Efficiency

4.2 Operational Characteristics

4.2.1 Range

4.2.2 Status of Other Operational Drivers

4.3 Durability

4.4 Cost

4.4.1 Hydrogen Fueling Costs

4.5 Government Programs

4.5.1 North America

4.5.1.1 United States

4.5.1.1.1. California

4.5.1.2 Canada

4.5.2 European Union (EU)

4.5.2.1 Germany

4.5.2.2 Scandinavia

5. Key Industry Players

5.1 OEMs

5.1.1 BMW

5.1.2 Daimler A.G

5.1.3 Fiat/Chrysler

5.1.4 Ford

5.1.5 General Motors

5.1.6 Honda

5.1.7 Hyundai/Kia

5.1.8 Nissan/Renault

5.1.9 PSA Peugeot

5.1.10 Shanghai Automobile Industry Corporation

5.1.11 Toyota

5.1.12 Van Hool

5.1.13 Volkswagen

5.2 New Vehicle Developers

5.2.1 Metha Energy

5.2.2 Microcab

5.2.3  Proterra

5.2.4  Riversimple

5.2.5  Vision Motor Corp

5.3 Electronic Systems Developers and Integrators

5.3.1  ISE Corporation

5.4 Fuel Cell Developers and Manufacturers

5.4.1 Ballard Power Systems

5.4.2 EnerFuel

5.4.3 H2Logic

5.4.4 Hydrogenics

5.4.5 Intelligent Energy

5.4.6 Nedstack

5.4.7 Proton Motor

5.4.8 Serenergy

5.4.9 UTC Power

6. Company Directory

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

 

List of Charts and Figures

• Fuel Cell Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets:  2015-2020
• Fuel Cell Light-Duty Vehicle Pre-Commercial Deployments, World Markets:  2010-2014
• Fuel Cell Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets:  2015-2020
• Fuel Cell Transit Bus Sales, World Markets:  2010-2017
• Fuel Cell Transit Bus Sales, Lead Country Markets:  2010-2017
• Light Vehicle Revenue, World Markets:  2015-2020
• PEM Fuel Cell Schematic
• Well-to-Wheels Vehicle Efficiency Comparison
• Well-to-Wheel GHG Emissions for Future Mid-Size Car
• WTW GHG Emissions for Mid-Size Vehicles
• JHFC Comparison of CO2 Emissions per Kilometer of Driving
• Progress in Reducing Fuel Cell System Cost:  2002-2009
• GM Fuel Cell Propulsion System Cost Projections
• Commercialization Scenario, Japan
• Current and Planned Hydrogen Stations in California
• Vehicle Duty-Cycle Matrix

List of Tables

• Fuel Cell Electrolyte Types
• U.S. DOE LDV Program Targets
• U.S. DOT Fuel Cell Bus Targets
• FCV Efficiency Goals
• Current Transit Bus Costs
• Annual Growth in Total FCV (Light Duty Car and Truck) Pre-Commercial Deployments, World Markets: 2010-2014
• Annual FCV (Light Duty Car and Truck) Pre-Commercial Deployment, World Markets: 2010-2014
• Annual Growth in Total FCV (Light Duty Car and Truck) Sales, World Markets: 2015-2020
• Annual FCV (Light Duty Car and Truck) Sales, World Markets: 2015-2020
• Annual Growth in FC Transit Buses, World Markets: 2010-2017
• FC Transit Buses, World Markets: 2010-2017
• Annual Growth in FC Transit Buses, Lead Markets: 2010-2017
• FC Transit Buses, Lead Markets: 2010-2017
• Annual Growth in Total FCV (Light Duty Car and Truck) Revenue, World Markets: 2015-2020
• Annual FCV (Light Duty Car and Truck) Revenue, World Markets: 2015-2020