Geothermal Heat Pumps

Residential and Commercial Applications for Geothermal Heat Pumps:
Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

One of the most mature and stable platforms of renewable energy usage, geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) were first used in the 1940s, and current systems became commercially available in the 1970s. Today, GHP systems are being deployed in nearly every region of the world and in residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial environments with great success. The GHP market, however, has experienced declines in deployments over the last few years. The economic downturn slowed construction, reduced government investments in renewable energy products, and limited the ability of developers to acquire capital for high-end construction products.

While the downturn has taken a toll on many of the manufacturers of GHP products, the market stands to experience significant growth in the coming years. As the world economy recovers, renewable energy initiatives in Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific will drive product deployments. The main barrier to GHP system deployment growth has been and remains to be the high upfront cost of system installation. Developments aimed to reduce this upfront cost are a primary focus of today’s R&D efforts. Navigant Research forecasts that installed GHP capacity will grow from 46.7 gigawatts thermal (GWt) worldwide in 2012 to 127.4 GWt in 2020.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market opportunity for geothermal heat pumps, including a comprehensive examination of GHP markets, demand drivers, existing and emerging technologies, the public policy and regulatory environment, and key industry players. Market forecasts, segmented by geography and market segment, extend through 2020 and include examinations of market dynamics in all key regions worldwide.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How has the GHP market evolved in the last 3 years?
  • What is the current state of the worldwide GHP market?
  • How rapidly will the GHP market grow over the next 8 years, and what will be the worldwide total for new installed capacity through 2020?
  • What is the relationship between residential and commercial GHP markets?
  • How will government incentives help shape the GHP market?
  • What do GHP units and GHP system components cost?
  • Who are the key players in the market for GHP systems?
Who needs this report?
  • Geothermal heat pump equipment manufacturers
  • GHP component and secondary equipment manufacturers
  • Residential, commercial, and institutional building owners and managers
  • Architects, engineers, and contractors
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Current State of the Worldwide GHP Market

1.3   Future of the GHP Market

2. Market Issues

2.1   Overview of Geothermal Heat Pumps

2.1.1   The Built Environment and Energy Demand

2.2   GHP Historical Market Snapshots

2.2.1   U.S. GHP Market

2.2.2   European GHP Market

2.2.3   Asia Pacific GHP Market

2.3   GHP End-Use Market Segmentation

2.3.1   Residential Segment

2.3.1.1   Retrofits

2.3.1.2   New Builds

2.3.2   Commercial Segment

2.3.2.1   Retrofits

2.3.2.2   New Builds

2.3.3   Industrial Segment

2.4   Benefits of GHPs

2.4.1   Abundant Resource

2.4.2   Low Operations and Maintenance Costs

2.4.3   Efficiency

2.4.4   Durability and Reliability

2.4.5   Convenience and Safety

2.4.6   Flexibility

2.5   Drawbacks of GHPs

2.5.1   Upfront Expense

2.5.2   Other Concerns

2.5.2.1   Maintenance

2.5.2.2   Water Dependency and Contamination

2.5.2.3   Concerns Associated with Use of Antifreeze

2.5.2.4   Coordination of Various Components

2.6   GHP Market Drivers

2.6.1   Rising Energy Costs

2.6.2   Electricity Demand

2.6.3   Energy Efficiency

2.6.4   Select Alternative Energy Mandates and Legislation

2.6.4.1   United States

2.6.4.2   European Union

2.6.4.3   China

2.6.4.4   Other Select Countries

2.6.5   Government Incentives

2.6.5.1 United States

2.6.5.1.1.   Tax Credits and Subsidies

2.6.5.1.2.   Loans, Grants, and Rebates

2.6.5.2 Select International Incentives

2.7   GHP Market Barriers

2.7.1   High Capital Costs

2.7.1.1   Models for Shifting Installation Cost Burden

2.7.1.2   Policy Improvements

2.7.2   Consumer Knowledge

2.7.3   Other Barriers

2.7.3.1   Lack of Standardized Cost and Feasibility Analysis

2.7.3.2   Energy Prices

2.7.3.2.1.   Natural Gas

2.7.3.2.2.   Heating Oil

2.7.3.3   Space Constraints

2.7.3.4   Distribution Issues and Lack of Regional Expertise

2.8   GHP Economics

2.8.1   Residential Cost Structure

2.8.1.1   GHEX Costs

2.8.1.2   Equipment Costs

2.8.2   Commercial Cost Structure

2.8.2.1   Site Development/GHEX Costs

2.8.2.2   Engineering

2.8.2.3   Unit Costs

3. Technology Issues

3.1   GHP Technology Introduction

3.2   GHP System Mechanics

3.2.1   GHP Modes

3.3   GHP System Components

3.3.1   Geothermal Heat Exchanger

3.3.1.1   Closed-Loop Systems

3.3.1.1.1.   Horizontal

3.3.1.1.2.   Vertical

3.3.1.1.3.   Pond/Groundwater

3.3.1.2   Open-Loop Systems

3.3.1.2.1.   Pump-and-Dump System

3.3.1.2.2.   Standing Column Well (Well Water)

3.3.1.3   Direct Exchange

3.3.1.4   Optimizing the Loop System

3.3.1.4.1.   Evaluating GHP Sites

3.3.1.5   Types of Loop Piping

3.3.1.6   Heat Transfer Fluids

3.3.2   Heat Pump Equipment

3.3.2.1   Water-to-Air

3.3.2.1.1.   Split-DX GHP Units

3.3.2.2   Water-to-Water

3.3.2.3   Combination Equipment

3.3.3   Building Distribution Systems

3.3.3.1   Ductwork

3.3.3.2   Hydronic Systems

3.3.3.3   Desuperheater

3.4   GHP Efficiency

3.4.1   Geothermal Heat Pump versus Air-Source Heat Pump

3.4.2   Rating Heating and Cooling Efficiency

3.4.2.1   Cooling Ratings

3.4.2.2   Heating Ratings

3.4.3   GHP ENERGY STAR Ratings in the United States

3.4.4   Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute Ratings

3.5   Optimizing GHP Technology

3.5.1   Increasing GHP Efficiency

3.5.1.1   Loop Temperature versus Operating Costs

3.5.1.2   Inverter Compressors and Variable Speed Compressors

3.5.1.3   Adding Variable Frequency Drives to the Pumps

3.5.1.4   Energy Recovery of Ventilation Air

3.5.2   Green Building

3.5.2.1   Maximizing Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design Points

3.5.2.2   Net-Zero Energy Buildings

3.5.3   R&D Financing

3.5.3.1   Financing Innovation

4. Key Industry Players

4.1   GHP Market Overview

4.2   Major GHP Manufacturers

4.2.1   Carrier Corp.

4.2.2   ClimateMaster

4.2.3   Enertech Global

4.2.4   Florida Heat Pump-Bosch

4.2.5   NIBE Industrier AB

4.2.6   WaterFurnace International

4.3   Other GHP Manufacturers

4.3.1   Bard Manufacturing Company

4.3.2   Calorax

4.3.3   Daikin McQuay

4.3.4   GeoMaster, LLC

4.3.5   Hydro-Temp Corp., Inc.

4.3.6   Mammoth, Inc.

4.3.7   Trane

4.3.8   Chinese Manufacturers

5. Market Forecasts

5.1   Global Renewable Energy Trends

5.2   GHP Trends

5.3   GHP Global Market Outlook

5.3.1   North America

5.3.1.1   United States

5.3.2   Europe

5.3.2.1   Eastern Europe

5.3.2.2   Western Europe

5.3.3   Asia Pacific

5.3.3.1   China

5.3.4   Rest of World

5.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

6. Company Directory
7. Acronym and Abbreviation List
8. Table of Contents
9. Table of Charts and Figures
10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • GHP Installed Capacity, Top 10 Countries, World Markets: 2012
  • GHP Installed Capacity Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2012
  • Residential New Housing Starts, United States: 2008-2012
  • Growth of Housing Starts vs. New Installed GHP Capacity, United States: 2010-2012
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Market Segment, United States: 2010-2012
  • GHP Installed Capacity, Top Six Countries, Europe: 2012
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Market Segment, Europe: 2010-2012
  • GHP Installed Capacity Market Share by Country, Asia Pacific: 2012
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Market Segment, Asia Pacific: 2010-2012
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Market Segment, World Markets: 2010-2012
  • Monthly Operations Costs of Residential Heating by Fuel Type: 2012
  • Average Energy Costs by Fuel Type, United States: 2012
  • Total GHP Costs by Installation, 4-Ton System, New Build
  • Cost Comparison of Different Types of GHEX, 4-Ton System
  • Cost Comparison of Different Types of GHP Units
  • Efficiency Comparison of Electric Heat Technologies
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2013‑2020
  • Annual GHP Revenue from New Unit Shipments by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Market Segment, North America: 2013-2020
  • GHP Installed Capacity, United States: 2013-2020
  • Annual GHP Unit Shipments by Model Type, United States: 2013-2020
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Region, Europe: 2013-2020
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Market Segment, Western Europe: 2013-2020
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Market Segment, Asia Pacific: 2013-2020
  • GHP Installed Capacity, China: 2013-2020
  • GHP Installed Capacity by Region, Rest of World: 2013-2020
  • Residential GHP System in Cooling Mode
  • Residential GHP System in Heating Mode
  • Illustration of GHEX Closed-Loop Systems
  • Horizontal Trench GHEX Installation, Slinky Configuration
  • Vertical Borehole GHEX Installation
  • Pond-Loop Stainless Steel GHEX Installation
  • Illustration of Pump-and-Dump GHEX
  • Illustration of Standing Column GHEX
  • Water-to-Air GHP Installation
  • Water-to-Water GHP Installation
  • In-Floor Radiant Installation
  • EPA ENERGY STAR 3.0 Specifications

List of Tables

  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Region, World Markets: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Region, World Markets: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Select Countries, World Markets: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Select Countries, World Markets: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Region, World Markets: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Region, World Markets: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, North America: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Western Europe: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Eastern Europe: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Asia Pacific: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Latin America: 2010-2012
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Select Countries, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Select Countries, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, North America: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Western Europe: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Eastern Europe: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Asia Pacific: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Latin America: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (MWt) by Market Segment and Country, Middle East & Africa: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Country, North America: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Country, Western Europe: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Country, Eastern Europe: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Country, Asia Pacific: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Country, Latin America: 2013-2020
  • Cumulative GHP Installed Capacity (Tons) by Market Segment and Country, Latin America: 2013-2020
  • Annual GHP Revenue from New Capacity Shipped by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual New GHP Capacity (Tons) Shipped by Select Countries, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual New GHP Unit Shipments by Select Countries, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual New GHP Unit Shipments by Model Type, United States: 2013-2020

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