As global energy demand increases and efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions intensify, an increasing number of countries throughout the world are looking to tap domestic geothermal resources to drive low carbon development. A clean, base load source of power, geothermal offers consistent electricity production nearly 24 hours a day with little to no emissions. Worldwide potential is immense, but geothermal remains an underutilized resource and represents only a small fraction of the global renewable energy portfolio. Improved access to resource data, more efficient drilling processes, increased understanding about the industry’s potential, and improving access to financing are driving expanding interest in the sector.

Today, more than 10.7 gigawatts (GW) of geothermal power capacity is online across 26 countries with a combined output of approximately 67 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity. Currently, the United States is the global geothermal leader with 3,086 megawatt (MW) of installed capacity. Seven countries account for 88% of global capacity, and among countries utilizing geothermal resources, seven obtain 10-30% of their total electricity supply from domestic geothermal sources. Conventional geothermal resources account for nearly all online capacity. However enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), which holds the most theoretical potential, and co-produced wells provide potentially lucrative opportunities for expansion outside of rift zones or volcanically active regions throughout the world.

This Pike Research report analyzes the global market opportunity for electricity production from conventional, EGS, and co-produced geothermal resources. The study includes a comprehensive examination of market drivers, existing and emerging technologies, the public policy and regulatory environment, and key industry players. Global market forecasts, segmented by geography, extend through 2020 and include profiles of key countries actively developing geothermal power projects.

Key questions addressed:

• What are the policy, technological, and economic market drivers for geothermal power?
• Which regions are poised for the greatest growth in geothermal capacity worldwide?
• What is the market outlook for geothermal conversion technologies?
• What impact will EGS and other breakthrough technologies have on geothermal capacity worldwide?
• What are the primary cost considerations for geothermal project development?

Who needs this report?

• Geothermal power project developers
• Geothermal consulting firms
• Geothermal power technology suppliers
• Utilities
• Drilling equipment and service providers
• Turbine and equipment manufacturers
• Environmental non-profit organizations
• Government agencies
• Investors and financial institutions

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

2. Market Issues

2.1 What is Geothermal?

2.1.1 Producing Geothermal Energy

2.1.2 Geothermal Energy Applications

2.2 Why Geothermal?

2.2.1 Abundant Resource

2.2.2 Cost-Effective

2.2.3 Base Load Energy

2.2.4 Sustainable

2.2.5 Low Emissions

2.2.6 Byproducts

2.3 Geothermal Industry Overview

2.3.1 Brief History of Geothermal

2.3.2 Role of Geothermal in Energy Markets

2.3.3 Current Geothermal Market Size

2.3.4 Geographical Distribution

2.3.4.1 Global Market Snapshot

2.3.4.2 United States Installed Capacity Snapshot

2.4 Geothermal Market Drivers

2.4.1 Rising Oil Prices and Volatility

2.4.2 Growing Electricity Demand

2.4.3 Energy Independence

2.4.4 Climate Change

2.4.5 Alternative Energy Mandates

2.4.5.1 Select National Mandates from International Markets

2.4.5.2 Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States

2.4.6 Government Incentives

2.4.6.1 Tax Credits and Subsidies

2.4.6.2 Loan Guarantees and Grants

2.5 Geothermal Barriers and Market Constraints

2.5.1 Access to Capital

2.5.1.1 High Up-front Costs

2.5.1.2 Long Development Timeline

2.5.1.3 Investment Uncertainty

2.5.2 Exploration Risk

2.5.2.1 Access to Exploratory Data

2.5.2.2 Reporting Standards

2.5.3 Access to Skilled Labor

2.5.4 Access to Drilling Rigs

2.5.5 Access to Water

2.5.6 Geographic Distribution and Interconnection

2.6 Geothermal Economics

2.6.1 Power Plant Construction Costs

2.6.2 Power Plant Operation Costs

2.6.3 Drilling Costs

2.6.3.1 Rig Mobilization and Demobilization

2.6.3.2 Daily Rate

2.6.3.3 Outside Daily Rate

2.6.3.4 Bit Costs

2.6.4 Operating and Maintenance Costs

2.6.5 Risk Premium

2.7 Developing Geothermal Projects

2.7.1 Development Timeline

2.7.2 Financing the Project

2.7.3 Acquiring Land

2.7.4 Project Sizing

3. Technology Issues

3.1 Geothermal Energy Technology Overview

3.2 Identifying Geothermal Resources

3.2.1 Geothermal Resource Types

3.3 Geothermal Exploration

3.3.1 Costs

3.3.2 Timing

3.3.3 Data

3.4 Drilling Wells to Access Geothermal Reservoirs

3.4.1 Overcoming Drilling Challenges

3.4.2 Hydrothermal Spallation

3.4.3 Geothermal Reservoir Management

3.5 Utilizing Geothermal Resources

3.5.1 Conventional Hydrothermal

3.5.2 Low-Temperature and Co-Produced Resources

3.5.3 EGS

3.5.3.1 Ideal EGS Resource Features

3.5.3.2 Seismicity Issues

3.5.3.3 EGS-Specific Technological Advancements

3.5.4 Hybrid Systems

3.5.4.1 Biomass

3.5.4.2 Combined Heat and Power (CHP)

3.5.4.3 Solar

3.6 Converting Geothermal Resources Into Electricity

3.6.1 Conversion Options

3.6.1.1 Dry Steam

3.6.1.2 Flash Steam

3.6.1.3 Binary Cycle

3.6.2 Choosing a Conversion Technology

3.7 Cooling Systems

3.7.1 Water Cooled

3.7.2 Air Cooled

3.7.3 Hybrid Cooling

3.8 Overcoming Resource Uncertainty

3.9 Future of Geothermal Energy Technology

3.9.1 Small-scale Geothermal

3.9.2 Technology Applications

4. Key Industry Players

4.1 Competitive Landscape

4.2 Companies – Conventional Geothermal

4.2.1 Borealis GeoPower

4.2.2 Calpine

4.2.3 MidAmerican Energy Holdings Company (CalEnergy)

4.2.4 Chevron

4.2.5 Enel SpA

4.2.6 Fuji

4.2.7 GeoGlobal Energy, LLC

4.2.8 Gradient Resources (formerly Vulcan Power Company)

4.2.9 Magma Energy Corp.

4.2.10 Mighty River Power

4.2.11 Nevada Geothermal Power Inc.

4.2.12 Ormat Technologies

4.2.13 Oski Energy, LLC

4.2.14 POWER Engineers

4.2.15 Ram Power

4.2.16 Terra-Gen Power, LLC

4.2.17 ThermaSource, LLC

4.2.18 U.S. Geothermal Inc.

4.3 Companies – EGS Geothermal

4.3.1 AltaRock Energy, Inc.

4.3.2 EGS Energy Unlimited

4.3.3 Geox

4.3.4 Geodynamics Limited

4.3.5 Potter Drilling

5. Market Forecasts

5.1 Future of Geothermal

5.2 International Geothermal Outlook

5.2.1 Business-as-Usual (BAU) Growth Projections

5.2.2 High Growth Projections

5.3 North America

5.3.1 United States

5.3.2 Canada

5.4 Latin America

5.4.1 Mexico

5.4.2 El Salvador

5.4.3 Costa Rica

5.4.4 Nicaragua

5.4.5 Guatemala

5.4.6 Chile

5.4.7 Argentina

5.4.8 Dominica, Nevis, St. Kitts, Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles)

5.5 Western Europe

5.5.1 Italy

5.5.2 Iceland

5.5.3 Germany

5.5.4 France and the United Kingdom

5.6 Eastern Europe

5.7 Asia Pacific

5.7.1 Philippines

5.7.2 Indonesia

5.7.3 New Zealand

5.7.4 Japan

5.7.5 Australia

5.7.6 India

5.8 Africa

5.8.1 Kenya

5.9 Middle East

5.9.1 Turkey

6. Company Directory

7. Acronym and Abbreviation List

8. Table of Contents

9. Table of Charts and Figures

10. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

• Total Global Investment in Geothermal Power (BAU), World Markets: 2010-2020
• High Growth Projection Geothermal Capacity by Region, World Markets: 1990-2020
• Mean Geothermal Power Potential by Region, World Markets
• Comparative Capacity Factors for Renewable Energy Resources
• Comparison of Geothermal and Fossil Fuel C0₂ Emissions
• Share of Global Electricity Capacity by Source, World Markets: 2010
• Growth of Geothermal Installed Electrical Capacity, World Markets: 1990 – 2010
• Top 15 Geothermal Producers by Installed Capacity, World Markets: 2010
• Installed Geothermal Power Capacity by State, United States: 2010
• Total Subsidies for Electrical Production by Source, United States: 2007
• Cost Breakdown Estimate for 50 MW Geothermal Project
• Snapshot of Average Asset Size, Global Markets: 2010
• Market Distribution of Turbines by Type, World Markets: 2010
• Turbine Market Share and Average Unit Size by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2010
• Total Global Investment in Geothermal Power (BAU), World Markets: 2010-2020
• BAU Projection for Geothermal Capacity by Region, World Markets: 1990-2020
• High Growth Projection Geothermal Capacity by Region, World Markets: 1990-2020
• Geothermal Capacity Growth Projections by Country, Latin America: 2010-2020
• Geothermal Capacity Growth Projections by Country, Western Europe: 2010-2020
• Geothermal Capacity Growth Projections by Country, Asia Pacific: 2010-2020
• Geothermal Capacity Growth Projections by Country, Africa: 2010-2020
• Tapping Into the Interior of the Earth
• Installed Geothermal Capacity and Potential by Region (MW), World Markets: 2010
• Renewable Portfolio Standards and Goals by State, United States
• ARRA-Funded Geothermal Projects’ Progress, United States: 2010
• Total DOE GTP ARRA/Cost-Share Geothermal Investment, United States: 2010
• Drill Rig Availability and Price of Crude Oil, United States: 1996 – 2011
• National Transmission Grid and Geothermal Sites in the Western United States
• Levelized Cost of Energy per MWh of Various Power Technologies
• Levelized Cost of Renewable Technologies With and Without Tax Incentives
• Anatomy of a Geothermal Reservoir
• Map of Pacific Ring of Fire
• Geothermal Map of the United States
• Rotary Cone Drill Bits
• Map of Oil and Gas Production in the United States
• Conceptual EGS System
• Steam Plant Using a Vapor or Dry Steam Dominated Resource
• Flash Steam Plant Using a Water-Dominated Resource
• Binary Power (Rankine Cycle Plant) Using Low Temperature Resource
• Snapshot of Geothermal Industry Competitive Landscape, World Markets: 2008
• Coal-fired Generation by Region, World Markets: 1990 -2035
• Geothermal Capacity in Development by State, United States: 2010

List of Tables

• Database of Government Incentives for Geothermal, World Markets
• Estimated Geothermal Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2010
• Comparative Capacity Factor for Renewable Energy Resources
• Comparison of Geothermal and Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions
• Marketed Energy Use by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2010
• Top 15 Geothermal Producers Worldwide by Country, World Markets: 2010
• Installed Geothermal Capacity by State, United States: 2010
• Total Subsidies for Electrical Production by Source, United States: 2007
• Cost Breakdown of Typical Geothermal Development
• Global Geothermal Turbine Market Share by Manufacturer, World Markets: 2010
• Global Geothermal Turbine Market Share by Power Plant Type, World Markets: 2010
• Geothermal Resource Conversion Options by Resource
• Total Geothermal Investment, World Markets: 1990-2020
• Total Geothermal Capacity by Region, World Markets (BAU): 1990-2020
• Total Geothermal Capacity by Region, World Markets (High Growth): 1990-2020
• Database of Geothermal Power Projects Online, World Markets: 2010
• Database of Planned Geothermal Power Projects, World Markets: 2010