Global Distributed Generation Deployment Forecast

Solar PV, Small Wind, Fuel Cell, Natural Gas Generator Set, and Diesel
Generator Set Capacity and Revenue by Country and Technology: 2014-2023

The rise of distributed generation (DG) is one of the most important trends in the energy industry today. Utility business models are threatened by the dramatic growth in the deployment of technologies that generate electricity onsite or at the distribution grid level, reducing the need to purchase electrons from centrally located utility-scale generation facilities.

To date, DG has been more disruptive in Western Europe than in any other region. Utilities are losing hundreds of billions of dollars in market capitalization as DG reaches higher levels of penetration in leading countries such as Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy. The prospect of similar losses by utilities in the United States is prompting a battle among utilities, the DG industry, and regulators seeking to strike a balance that allows for DG growth while allowing utilities to benefit. Such a balance would enable DG customers and utilities to take advantage of new revenue opportunities enabled by DG while fairly compensating utilities for the ability to use the existing electrical grid as a backup service for onsite power at higher concentrations in the future. According to Navigant Research, annual installed capacity in the global DG market is expected to grow from 87.3 GW in 2014 to 165.5 GW in 2023.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for DG technologies, including solar PV (<1 MW), small wind turbines (SWTs; <500 kW), stationary fuel cells, natural gas generator sets (gensets; <6 MW), and diesel gensets (<6 MW).  Installed capacity, revenue, and pricing forecasts are included for the time period of 2014-2023 for 54 countries.  The report also includes region- and country-specific market analyses, qualitative analysis of installed capacity by customer segment and/or power class for leading markets, and an overview of modeling assumptions.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What countries are the strongest markets for distributed generation (DG) deployment?
  • What is the DG market size by technology and country?
  • What are the key drivers and barriers to the deployment of DG in leading markets?
  • What are the costs of DG technologies now and in the future?
  • What are the most important technology, policy, and capital trends affecting DG?
  • What is the projected market size for distributed solar PV, small wind turbines (SWTs), fuel cells, natural gas generator sets (gensets), and diesel gensets by country?
  • What is the overall global outlook for DG?
Who needs this report?
  • Utilities
  • Distributed generation (DG) OEMs and suppliers
  • Solar PV companies
  • Small wind turbine (SWT) companies
  • Diesel generator set (genset) companies
  • Natural gas genset companies
  • Government agencies and regulators
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Technology Scope

1.3  Global Forecasts

2. Data Assumptions 

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Methodology

2.2.1   Annual Installed Capacity

2.2.2   Revenue

2.3  Geographic Scope

2.4  Technology Scope

2.4.1   Solar PV Systems

2.4.2   Small Wind Systems

2.4.3   Stationary Fuel Cells

2.4.4   Gensets

2.5  Technology Pricing Assumptions

2.5.1   Solar PV Pricing Assumptions

2.5.2   Small Wind Pricing Assumptions

2.5.3   Stationary Fuel Cell Pricing Assumptions

2.5.4   Genset Pricing Assumptions

2.6  DG Market Drivers

2.6.1   Renewable Energy Targets and DG Carve-Outs

   2.6.1.1  North America

   2.6.1.2  Europe

   2.6.1.3  Asia Pacific

2.6.2   FITs and Net Metering

   2.6.2.1  North America

   2.6.2.2  Europe

   2.6.2.3  Asia Pacific

2.6.3   Increase in Catastrophic Power Outages

2.6.4   Rural Electrification

2.6.5   The Evolving Utility Business Model

3. Market Forecasts 

3.1  DG Forecasts

3.1.1   DG Forecasts by Technology

   3.1.1.1  Distributed Solar PV Forecast

   3.1.1.2  Small Wind Forecasts

   3.1.1.3  Fuel Cell Forecasts

   3.1.1.4  NG Genset Forecasts

   3.1.1.5  Diesel Genset Forecasts

3.1.2   DG Forecasts by Geography

   3.1.2.1  North America

      3.1.2.1.1.  United States

   3.1.2.2  Western Europe

      3.1.2.2.1.  France

      3.1.2.2.2.  Germany

      3.1.2.2.3.  Italy

      3.1.2.2.4.  United Kingdom

   3.1.2.3  Eastern Europe

   3.1.2.4  Asia Pacific

      3.1.2.4.1.  Australia

      3.1.2.4.2.  China

      3.1.2.4.3.  India

      3.1.2.4.4   Japan

   3.1.2.5  Latin America

   3.1.2.6  Middle East

   3.1.2.7  Africa

3.2  Conclusions

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Centralized Power Plant and Distributed Generation Capacity Additions and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Distributed Solar PV Installed Cost by Region, World Markets: 2009-2023
    • Small Wind System Installed Cost by System Size, United Kingdom: 2013
    • Annual GDP, New Electric Capacity Additions, and New Distributed Generation Capacity Additions, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Solar PV Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Small Wind Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Stationary Fuel Cell Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Natural Gas Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Diesel Genset Installed Capacity and Revenue, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, North America: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Western Europe: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Latin America: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Middle East: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity and Revenue by Country, Africa: 2014-2023
    • RPSs with Solar/DG Provisions, United States: March 2013
    • Forward Spot Price for Baseload Electricity, Europe: 2010-2013
    • California Independent System Operator Net Load: 2012-2020
    • FIT Rate Schedule, United Kingdom: 2012-2016

List of Tables

    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, North America: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Western Europe: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Latin America: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Middle East: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Installed Capacity by Technology and Country, Africa: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology, World Markets: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, North America: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Western Europe: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Eastern Europe: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Asia Pacific: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Latin America: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Middle East: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Generation Revenue by Technology and Country, Africa: 2014-2023
    • Annual Distributed Solar PV Generation Capacity by Country and Customer Segment, Europe: 2013
    • Cumulative Distributed Solar PV Generation Capacity by Country and Customer Segment, Europe: 2013
    • Distributed Solar PV Installed Cost by System Size and Region, World Markets: 2009-2023
    • Small Wind System Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
    • Fuel Cell Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
    • Natural Gas Genset Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
    • Diesel Genset Average Installed Cost, World Markets: 2009-2023
    • DG Technology Comparison
    • Estimated Losses per Hour of Grid Failure

Downloads

Register or Login to download free sample content.


{"userID":"","pageName":"Global Distributed Generation Deployment Forecast","path":"\/research\/global-distributed-generation-deployment-forecast","date":"5\/28\/2016"}