Global Wind Energy Policy and Market Risk Assessment

Country Rankings, Policy Profiles, and Policy and Market Risk Assessment

Until recently, wind-related policy mechanisms were often transparent and fixed upfront for the developer (such as a feed-in tariff, or FIT) in order to encourage investment despite the higher cost of wind compared to traditional power generation sources. As the cost of wind energy has plunged due to technology improvements and efficiencies of scale, many countries have begun exploring or implementing market-oriented policy options that decrease costs for supporting governments, utilities, ratepayers, and other purchasers of renewable energy electricity. In particular, competitive power contract auctions have been sweeping the globe, driving down the cost of wind power to governments and ratepayers while still enabling the profitable construction and financing of wind plants.

Since the previous version of this report was published in 4Q 2015, nine countries have seen positive, substantial progress implementing power contract auctions, two countries are likely to enact new power contract auction schemes, and three countries have stumbled in their implementation of these auction programs—leading to a higher risk environment. Country-specific policy profiles of 28 countries provide comprehensive and up-to-date policy details and analysis.

This Navigant Research report examines the strengths and weaknesses of the policies to promote the development of wind power capacity in 28 countries. Navigant Research summarizes the key details of each country’s policies for wind energy and assesses how the wind plant development and investment community is reacting to those policies to evaluate which markets are most likely poised to attract wind plant development and investment and experience further wind power capacity expansion. The criteria by which countries are compared include Policy Stability, Past Performance, Sector Potential, and Economic Forecast. Countries are grouped into the four categories of Booming, Outperformers, Growing and Stable, and Stalled or High Risk.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the six common policy mechanisms used in various countries to support wind energy?
  • How has the adoption of these policies changed through 2016 and into 2017?
  • What are the price signals being exposed by the many new market-oriented policy mechanisms?
  • Which countries are growing most quickly and/or installing the most wind energy?
  • What are the specific policies in country markets that are seeing fast, modest, or stable growth?
  • Which countries have stalled or high risk wind energy markets?
  • What are the likely policy changes on the horizon in all relevant country markets?
  • Which countries are likely to face a downturn in the number of wind plants built in the coming years?
Who needs this report?
  • Wind turbine manufacturers
  • Wind plant developers
  • Wind plant investors
  • Wind turbine component suppliers
  • Government agencies, policymakers, and researchers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Introduction

1.2  Country Ranking Metrics

1.3  The Navigant Research Country Rankings Grid

2. Market Issues

2.1  Overview

2.2  Policy Support Mechanisms

2.2.1  RESs and RECs

2.2.2  FITs

2.2.3  Premiums

2.2.4  Power Contract Auctions

2.2.5  Tax Credits

3. Country Policy Assessment and Ranking

3.1  The Navigant Research Country Rankings Categories

3.1.1  Booming

3.1.2  Outperformers

3.1.3  Growing and Stable

3.1.4  Stalled or High Risk

3.2  Global Snapshot

3.2.1  Booming

3.2.2  Outperformers

3.2.3  Growing and Stable

3.2.4  Stalled or High Risk

4. Country Policy Profiles

4.1  Country Analysis

4.1.1  Booming

4.1.1.1  China

4.1.2  Outperformers

4.1.2.1  United States

4.1.2.2  India

4.1.2.3  Germany

4.1.3  Growing and Stable

4.1.3.1  Canada

4.1.3.2  Turkey

4.1.3.3  Mexico

4.1.3.4  Brazil

4.1.3.5  Sweden

4.1.3.6  France

4.1.3.7  Chile

4.1.3.8  United Kingdom

4.1.3.9  Australia

4.1.3.10  Austria

4.1.3.11  Netherlands

4.1.3.12  Finland

4.1.3.13  Argentina

4.1.3.14  Denmark

4.1.3.15  Uruguay

4.1.3.16  Ireland

4.1.3.17  Italy

4.1.3.18  South Korea

4.1.3.19  Norway

4.1.3.20  Belgium

4.1.4  Stalled or High Risk

4.1.4.1  Japan

4.1.4.2  South Africa

4.1.4.3  Egypt

4.1.4.4  Poland

4.2  Conclusions and Recommendations

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

8.1  Scope Overview

8.2  Ratings Scale

8.3  Criteria Definitions

8.3.1  Policy Strength

8.3.2  Market Potential

List of Charts and Figures

  • Navigant Research Country Rankings Grid, Top Eight Countries: 1H 2017
  • Navigant Research Country Rankings: 1H 2017
  • China Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • United States Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • India Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Germany Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Canada Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Turkey Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Mexico Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Brazil Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Sweden Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • France Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Chile Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • United Kingdom Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Australia Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Austria Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Netherlands Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Finland Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Argentina Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Denmark Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Uruguay Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Ireland Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Italy Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • South Korea Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Norway Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Belgium Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Japan Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • South Africa Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Egypt Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017
  • Poland Market Potential and Policy Strength Scores: 1H 2017

List of Tables

  • Navigant Research Country Rankings: 1H 2017
  • Country Scores: 1H 2017
  • Country Scores on Policy Strength Criteria: 1H 2017
  • Country Scores on Market Potential Criteria: 1H 2017
  • Policy Mechanism Mix, Top 10 Countries: 1H 2017
  • China Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • United States Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • India Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Germany Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Canada Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Turkey Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Mexico Wind Market Policy Assessment:1H 2017
  • Brazil Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Sweden Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • France Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Chile Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • United Kingdom Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Australia Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Austria Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Netherlands Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Finland Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Argentina Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Denmark Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Uruguay Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Ireland Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Italy Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • South Korea Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Norway Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Belgium Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Japan Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • South Africa Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Egypt Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017
  • Poland Wind Market Policy Assessment: 1H 2017

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