Like much of the electricity grid, high-voltage transmission systems in service today rely on many of the same technologies that existed at their conception over 100 years ago. In the last 20 years, however, transmission technologies have benefited from a new stage of innovation. Today over two-thirds of new large-scale transmission systems planned or under construction are high-voltage direct current (HVDC) systems. HVDC systems are an essential component of grid buildouts to meet the growth in demand for electricity. Around the world, HVDC is being relied upon to integrate large amounts of intermittent renewable energy capacity, as well as rapid capacity expansions of bulk power transmission to meet vibrant economic growth in the developing world.
HVDC systems are, by nature, very capital intensive and in many world regions they are driven by government programs. In other regions, planned HVDC systems are at the mercy of capital availability and balkanized regulatory frameworks. These factors, combined with the uncertainties of the global economy, lead Pike Research to the conclusion that there is likely to be a significant gap between the planned level of investment in HVDC systems and the investment level that will actually happen. Pike Research’s analysis indicates that while the planned cumulative investment in HVDC amounts to nearly $220 billion through 2020, there is an 80% probability that the actual range of investment during that period will only be between $110 and $120 billion.
This Pike Research report provides a comprehensive analysis of the global market opportunity for HVDC transmission systems. The study examines key market drivers and barriers by world region, policy and regulatory issues, economics of transmission system construction and operations, HVDC technology issues, profiles of key industry players, and a comprehensive database of HVDC systems planned and under construction. Market forecasts for HVDC systems and spending are provided through 2020, with segmentation by world region, including a probabilistic analysis of the likelihood of various investment levels during the forecast period.
Key Questions Addressed:
- What are the primary HVDC component and cable technologies and how are they being deployed?
- What are the key drivers influencing this market?
- What are the primary technology issues facing participants and how are they evolving?
- What is a realistic forecast of systems that are likely to actually be constructed and how much of an investment does this group represent?
Who needs this report?
- Power generation companies
- Transmission system operators
- Transmission equipment vendors
- Software developers
- Government agencies
- Investor community
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1 High-Voltage Transmission Systems
1.1.1 High-Voltage Direct Current
1.2 HVDC Market Segments and Drivers
1.3 HVDC Market Challenges
1.4 HVDC Systems in Construction or Planned
1.5 HVDC System Market Forecasts
2. Market Issues
2.1 Electricity Transmission Markets
2.2 High-Voltage Transmission
2.2.1 Alternating Current and Direct Current Defined
2.2.2 HVDC
2.2.3 HVAC and HVDC Compared
2.2.3.1 Operational Differences
2.2.3.2 Economic Considerations
2.2.4 HVDC and UHVDC
2.2.5 HVDC Benefits Summary
2.3 Global Demand Drivers
2.3.1 Global HVDC Market Drivers
2.3.1.1 Electricity Demand
2.3.1.2 Energy Poverty
2.3.1.3 Technology Advancements
2.3.2 Regional HVDC Market Drivers
2.3.2.1 North America
2.3.2.2 Europe
2.3.2.3 China and India
2.3.2.4 Rest of World
2.4 HVDC Market Challenges
2.4.1 Land Use
2.4.2 Capital
2.4.3 Regulatory Policies
2.4.3.1 United States
2.4.3.2 Europe
2.4.3.3 China
2.4.3.4 India
2.5 HVDC and the Smart Grid
2.5.1 Efficient Infrastructure
2.5.2 Intelligent Hardware and Controls
3. Technology Issues
3.1 HVDC Technology Overview
3.1.1 Primary Components of HVDC Systems
3.1.2 Converter Technology
3.1.2.1 Current Sourced Converter
3.1.2.2 Voltage-Sourced Converter
3.1.3 Cables and Conductors
3.1.3.1 Mass Impregnated Submarine and Underground Cables
3.1.3.2 Extruded Submarine Cables
3.1.3.3 Overhead Conductors
3.2 HVDC System Configurations and Operating Modes
3.3 Submarine Interconnections
3.3.1 Undersea National Grid Interconnections
3.3.2 Connecting Wind Farms and Offshore Power Generation
3.3.3 Power Supply to Offshore Facilities
3.4 Technology Development
3.4.1 Converter Technology
3.4.2 HVDC Breakers
3.4.3 Superconductors
3.5 Installed System Cost Metrics
3.5.1 Hypothetical HVDC Line
3.5.1.1 Cost Parameters
3.5.1.2 Financing Assumptions
3.5.2 Comparison with HVAC Alternatives
4. HVDC System Applications
4.1 Connecting HVAC Grids
4.2 Multi-Terminal Operations
4.3 National and International Grid Buildouts
4.3.1 North America
4.3.1.1 United States
4.3.1.2 Canada
4.3.2 Europe
4.3.3 China and India
4.3.3.1 China
4.3.3.2 India
4.3.4 Rest of World
4.4 Planned or Under Construction HVDC Lines: 2012-2020
4.4.1 North America
4.4.2 Europe
4.4.3 China and India
4.4.4 Rest of World
5. Key Industry Players
5.1 HVDC Electronic Components Suppliers
5.1.1 ABB
5.1.2 Alstom
5.1.3 AMSC
5.1.4 Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories
5.1.5 Siemens AG
5.2 Large Power Grid Operators
5.2.1 China Southern Power Grid (CSP)
5.2.2 Power Grid Corp. of India Ltd. (POWERGRID)
5.2.3 State Grid Corp. of China (SGCC)
5.2.4 Statnett
5.2.5 TenneT
5.2.6 Western Electricity Coordinating Council
5.3 Cable and Equipment Manufacturers
5.3.1 Borealis
5.3.2 General Cable Corp. (NSW)
5.3.3 LS Cable & System
5.3.4 Nexans
5.3.5 nkt cables
5.3.6 Prysmian
6. Market Forecasts
6.1 HVDC Systems Market Forecasts
6.2 Global HVDC Systems Market
6.2.1 Global HVDC Market by Region
6.2.2 Global HVDC Converter Station Market
6.2.2.1 Global Annual HVDC Converter Forecast
6.2.2.2 Global Cumulative HVDC Converter Stations Forecast
6.2.2.3 Global Cumulative HVDC Converter Station Market Forecast by Region
6.2.2.4 Global Cumulative HVDC Converter Station Forecast by Technology
6.3 HVDC Systems Market Forecast Reflecting Global Uncertainties
6.3.1 Global Uncertainties
6.3.1.1 Hypothetical Events – Political
6.3.1.2 Hypothetical Events – Economic
6.3.1.3 Hypothetical Events – Sociological
6.3.1.4 Hypothetical Events – Technological
6.3.2 HVDC Systems Global Market Probabilistic Forecast
6.3.2.1 HVDC Systems Regional Market Probabilistic Forecast
7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes
List of Charts and Figures
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Economic Tradeoffs Quantified, HVAC and HVDC
- Electricity Demand, World Markets: 2010-2020
- Electricity Demand, North America and Europe vs. China and India: 2010-2020
- Total Costs, Hypothetical HVDC System
- Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Share of HVDC Converter Station Component Costs
- HVDC Converter Station Costs by Capacity
- Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converter Stations by Technology, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, North America: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, North America: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, Europe: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, Europe: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability, China and India: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, China and India: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending by Probability, Rest of World: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Spending Probability Distribution, Rest of World: 2012-2020
- HVDC Systems Planned for Commissioning by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Capacity Improvements, HVDC Classic Converter Technology: 1970-2010
- HVAC and HVDC System Layouts, Midwest United States
- Maximum Real Power Transfer, Subsea Cables
- HVDC Overall Losses
- Right-of-Way Benefits of HVDC Transmission
- Economic Tradeoffs, HVAC and HVDC
- Distribution of People Living Without Electricity
- U.S. Electricity Reliability Councils
- Regional Transmission Operators
- EU 2050 Goals, Renewable Generation
- Projected Share of Global Indicators, China
- Simplified Synchrophasor Data System Schematic
- Generic Converter Station Layout
- Evolution of Converter Technology Capacity: 1970-2011
- Chuxiong Converter Station
- Shoreham HVDC Converter Station
- Mass Impregnated Submarine Cables
- HVDC XLPE Submarine and Underground Cables
- HVDC System Configurations
- 2030 Offshore Grid Vision of European Wind Energy Association
- Wind Turbine Cable Installation Schematic, Horns
- Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm and Oil Platform
- VSC Technology Advances
- Multi-Terminal Operation with and without Circuit Breakers
- Superconductor Wire Components
- Superconductor Cables
- TresAmigas Hub
- PowerPipelines System, United States
- Quebec-New England HVDC Interconnection
- ANOVA Concept – U.S. National HVDC Backbone
- Proposed Canadian Interconnections
- EU Transmission Requirements: 2050
- Friends of the Supergrid Concept
- Medgrid Proposal
- DESERTEC
- The Mediterranean Ultra-Grid
- Transmission Line Paths and Construction Plans in China
- Indian HVDC Planned Corridors
- Political, Economic, Sociological, and Technological Uncertainties
List of Tables
- HVDC Systems Planned for Commissioning by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Economic Tradeoffs Quantified, HVAC and HVDC
- Electricity Demand by Region, World Markets: 2010-2035
- Current Converter Technology Capacity Limits by Vendor
- Hypothetical HVDC Line Cost Elements
- Project Financing Assumptions
- Summary, Pro Forma Financial Statement
- Costs per Unit Capacity and Energy: HVDC and HVAC Systems, 3,000 MW
- Total Costs, Hypothetical HVDC System by Component
- HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, North America: 2012-2020
- HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, Europe: 2012-2020
- HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, China and India: 2012-2020
- HVDC Lines, Planned or Under Construction, Rest of World: 2012-2020
- Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Systems by Detailed Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Share of HVDC Converter Station Component Costs
- HVDC Converter Station Costs by Capacity
- Annual Spending, Planned HVDC Converters, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converters, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converters by Region, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative Spending, Planned HVDC Converters by Technology, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, World Markets: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, World Markets: 2010-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, North America: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, North America: 2010-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, Europe: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, Europe: 2010-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, China and India: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, China and India: 2010-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems by Probability, Rest of World: 2012-2020
- Cumulative HVDC Systems Distribution, Rest of World: 2010-2020