Hybrid and Electric Trucks

Hybrid Electric, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Light Duty, Medium Duty,
and Heavy Duty Trucks and Vans: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The hybrid and electric truck market experienced a demand surge from 2008 to 2011, even as the broader truck market foundered in the global economic downturn. This surge was due in part to government stimulus spending and in part to the launch of the plug-in hybrid and battery car market, which spurred interest in these technologies for other vehicle applications. As of 2013, the economic stimulus programs are winding down and hybrid and electric truck deployments have enabled fleets to gain real world experience with the technologies.

Although many fleets are interested in using these vehicles to support corporate sustainability targets, ultimately most purchasing decisions are driven by cost. Not all applications for hybrid and electric trucks provide sufficient fuel savings to offset the price premium over diesel or gasoline trucks in an acceptable timeframe. Companies thus need to focus on lowering costs and targeting only those end-user markets where the fuel savings of their technologies are optimized. Another strategy for success would be to add value beyond the vehicle drive cycle (e.g., by providing vehicle-to-grid services). Without such strategies, the market will continue to rely heavily on government subsidy programs. Navigant Research forecasts that global annual unit sales for hybrid and electric trucks – including light duty trucks used by commercial fleets and all medium and heavy duty on-road trucks – will rise from under 10,000 in 2013 to more than 100,000 in 2020.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) trucks. The study provides an analysis of the market issues associated with the light duty (Class 2 equivalent), medium duty, and heavy duty vehicle segments for these technologies, as well as government policies and regulations affecting the market. Global market forecasts, broken out by vehicle segment, drivetrain, and region, extend through 2020. The report also examines the different types of end uses for each technology, elements of the hybrid and electric drive system, competing technologies, and the key players in the market.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What are the most likely end-use applications for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and battery electric vehicle (BEV) trucks?
  • What are the strengths and weaknesses of each technology for light, medium, and heavy duty trucks?
  • Which countries are seeing the highest adoption rates of hybrid and electric trucks?
  • How quickly will the HEV, PHEV, and BEV truck market grow in each of the world regions?
  • Who are the key OEMs and drivetrain suppliers in this market?
  • How do HEV, PHEV, and BEV trucks compare with alternative fuel trucks?
Who needs this report?
  • Truck manufacturers
  • Hybrid and electric drive system manufacturers
  • Battery manufacturers and suppliers
  • Electric vehicle charging equipment companies
  • Fleet operators
  • Government agencies and policymakers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Key Market Issues

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Issues

2.1  Overview

2.2  Vehicle Classifications

2.2.1   North America

2.2.2   Europe

2.2.3   Asia Pacific

2.3  Navigant Research Classifications

2.3.1   Light Duty Fleet Vehicles

2.3.2   Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks for Fleets

2.3.3   Vehicle Availability and Company Attrition

2.3.4   Vocational Applications for Trucks

2.3.4.1  Delivery Trucks

2.3.4.1.1.   Over-the-Road Tractors

2.3.4.2  Non-Delivery Work Applications

2.3.4.3  Port/Railyard Operations

2.3.5   PHEV and BEV Truck Deployments

2.3.5.1  Military Applications

2.4  Competing Technologies

2.4.1   Gasoline

2.4.2   Hydraulic Hybrids

2.4.3   Natural Gas

2.4.4   Propane

2.4.5   Biofuels

2.4.6   Fuel Cells

2.4.7   Auxiliary Power Units and Truck Stop Electrification

2.4.8   Fleet Management Systems

3. Market Drivers

3.1  Legislation and Regulations

3.1.1   North America

3.1.1.1  U.S. States

3.1.2   Canada

3.1.3   Europe

3.1.4   Asia Pacific

3.1.4.1  China

3.1.4.2  Japan

3.2  Total Cost of Ownership Benefits

3.2.1   Fuel Prices

3.2.2   Recovery of Cost Premiums

3.2.3   Maintenance Costs

3.2.4   Total Cost of Ownership Analysis

3.3  Going Green and the Influence of High-Profile Fleets

3.4  Idle Reduction

3.5  Vehicle to Grid

3.6  Assessment of the Key Drivers for Electric Drive Trucks

4. Technology Issues

4.1  Hybrid and Electric Drivetrains for Trucks

4.1.1   Parallel Hybrid Electric Design

4.1.2   Series Hybrid Electric Design

4.2  ePTO Hybrids

4.3  Plug-In Hybrid Drive

4.4  Battery Trucks

4.5  Elements of the Hybrid and Electric Drive System

4.5.1   Regenerative Braking

4.5.2   Electric Motors

4.5.3   Battery Technology

4.5.4   Ultracapacitors

4.5.5   Battery Size for Hybrid Trucks

4.5.6   Recharging Infrastructure

4.5.7   Onboard Diagnostics Systems in California

5. Key Industry Players

5.1  Original Equipment Manufacturers or Chassis Manufacturers

5.1.1   AMP Electric

5.1.2   Balqon Corporation

5.1.3   Boulder Electric Vehicle

5.1.4   Crane Carrier Company

5.1.5   Daimler AG

5.1.6   Electric Vehicles International

5.1.7   Ford Motor Co.

5.1.8   Hino Motors, Ltd.

5.1.9   Iveco

5.1.10  MAN SE

5.1.11  Navistar and International Truck and Engine Corp.

5.1.12  Nissan

5.1.13  PACCAR/Kenworth/Peterbilt/DAF

5.1.14  Smith Electric Vehicles

5.1.15  Volvo Group Global/Renault Trucks/Mack Trucks

5.1.16  ZeroTruck

5.2  Suppliers

5.2.1   Allison Transmission

5.2.2   ALTe Powertrain

5.2.3   Altec, Inc.

5.2.4   BAE Systems

5.2.5   Eaton Corp.

5.2.6   Inventev

5.2.7   Odyne Systems

5.2.8   Siemens

5.2.9   Terex Utilities

5.2.10  TM4

5.2.11  TransPower

5.2.12  UQM Technologies

5.2.13  VIA Motors

5.2.14  Wrightspeed

5.2.15  XL Hybrids

5.2.16  ZF Friedrichshafen AG

5.3  Other Entities

5.3.1   CALSTART

5.3.2   Duke Energy

5.3.3   FleetCarma

5.3.4   Pacific Gas & Electric

5.3.5   Southern California Edison

6. Market Forecasts

6.1  Global Fleet Vehicle Forecasts

6.2  Global Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery Electric Truck Forecasts

6.2.1   Global Hybrid Truck Sales

6.2.2   Global Plug-In Hybrid Truck Sales

6.2.3   Global Battery Electric Truck Sales

6.2.4   HEV, PHEV, and BEV Truck Sales by Region

6.2.5   Global MD and HD Truck Sales by Drivetrain Type

6.3  Conclusions and Recommendations

7. Company Directory
8. Acronym and Abbreviation List
9. Table of Contents
10. Table of Charts and Figures
11. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Light, Medium, and Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Diesel Price by Key Country, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • PHEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, BEV, and PHEV Fleet Truck Sales (All Vehicle Segments) by Region: 2013-2020
  • Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Federal Vehicle Weight Classifications, United States
  • Cutaway Cab and Stripped-Chassis Vehicles
  • HTUF Class 4 Parcel Drive Cycle
  • Utility Service Truck Drive Cycle
  • Cab-and-Chassis Vehicles

List of Tables

  • Vehicle Weight Classifications, European Union
  • Vehicle Weight Classifications, Navigant Research
  • Global Availability of HEV, PHEV, and BEV Light Duty Vehicle Models, Top Markets: 2014
  • Selected Hybrid Trucks Available, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected Plug-In Hybrid Trucks Available or Being Developed, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected Battery Electric Trucks Available or Being Developed, World Markets: 2013
  • Selected PHEV and BEV Trucks in Service or Pending Deployment (2,935 in Total), World Markets: 2013
  • Truck Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations, United States: Model Year 2017-2018
  • Vocational Vehicle Fuel Economy and Emissions Regulations, United States: Model Year 2017
  • Hybrid Voucher Incentive Project, California: Proposed 2013-2014
  • Average New Vehicle Fuel Economy by Vehicle Type and Year, China: 2005-2030
  • Typical Truck Costs by Vehicle Part
  • Truck Total Cost of Ownership
  • Vehicle Operating Costs by System, FedEx Express: 2011
  • FleetCarma Analysis of Vehicle Savings
  • Average Gasoline Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Diesel Price by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Average Spot Price of Crude Oil, World Markets: 2013-2022
  • Battery Type Comparison
  • Battery Size Used by Selected HEV, PHEV, and BEV Trucks
  • Annual Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Light Duty Fleet Vehicle Sales (Cars and Trucks) by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV/PHEV/BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual HEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual PHEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Light Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Medium Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Annual BEV Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • PHEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • BEV Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales as Percentage of Total Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales by Vehicle Segment, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Light, Medium, and Heavy Duty Fleet Truck Sales by Electric Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • HEV, PHEV, and BEV Fleet Truck Sales (All Vehicle Segments) by Region: 2013-2020
  • Medium/Heavy Duty Truck Sales by Alternative Drivetrain, World Markets: 2013-2020

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