Market Data: Automated Driving Vehicles

Global Consumer and Commercial Market Forecasts: 2017-2035

Automated driving technology continues to advance in capability. The majority of manufacturers now offer standard or low cost Level 1 systems across most consumer and commercial vehicle segments. Increasingly capable Level 2 systems are also offered on a broad array of premium models. Highly automated Level 3 and 4 systems are being tested extensively, including in public pilot programs, and governments globally are debating and starting to approve the legislation to allow commercial deployment on public roads. As Level 4 vehicles become more capable and able to handle a greater variety of conditions, they will evolve into fully automated Level 5 vehicles.

Automated driving has the potential to bring a range of benefits to society. Long range driving tasks can be made safer, first by introducing increasing levels of assistance to drivers and then by taking over the primary responsibility. Full automation brings many possibilities, including the potential rollout of fleets of vehicles that are available on demand. These vehicles would be available at much lower costs per mile than owning a car or using a taxi and would be more convenient than public transport. Navigant Research expects first introductions of highly automated light duty vehicles (LDVs) to begin in 2020, with steady growth anticipated beginning in 2025. The sales growth pattern is similar for commercial vehicles, although the start of the growth period is expected to lag by between 3 and 5 years and vary by vehicle type.

This Navigant Research report provides projections of the size of regional markets for consumer (light duty) and commercial vehicles with highly automated driving capability. Global market sales and vehicle population projections for consumer vehicles under three different scenarios extend through 2035. The report also examines the breakdown by category for commercial vehicles with driving automation, separating medium and heavy duty trucks and medium and heavy duty buses.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • When will the first automated driving vehicles come to market?
  • How fast will annual sales grow for automated consumer and commercial vehicles?
  • What effect will different levels of automated driving have on the global vehicle population?
  • How quickly will world regions adopt automated driving vehicles?
  • Which commercial vehicle categories will experience the strongest growth in automated driving?
Who needs this report?
  • Fleet managers
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Truck and bus manufacturers
  • Automotive industry suppliers
  • Insurance companies
  • Government agencies
  • City managers
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Market Overview

1.2   Scope

1.3   Market Forecasts

2. Market Overview

2.1   Overall Forecast

2.1.1   Automated Vehicle Technology Definitions

2.2   Market Trends and Drivers

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Introduction

3.1.1   Consumer Vehicle Market

3.1.2   Commercial Vehicle Market

3.2   Consumer Vehicle Forecasts

3.2.1   Global Forecasts

3.3   Commercial Vehicle Forecasts

3.3.1   Forecasts by Vehicle Category

3.3.1.1   Bus Forecasts by Region

3.3.1.2   Truck Forecasts by Region

3.3.2   Global Breakdown

3.4   Conclusions

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales Penetration by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035

List of Tables

  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2020-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Scenario, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, North America: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Scenario, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Western Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Eastern Europe: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Asia Pacific: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Scenario, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Latin America: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ LD Vehicle Sales Penetration by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • Annual LD Vehicle Population by Scenario, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2035
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ MD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ HD Truck Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2017-2035
  • Annual Automated Driving Level 4+ Commercial Vehicle Sales Penetration by Vehicle Type, World Markets: 2017-2035

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