Market Data: Electric Drive Buses

Medium and Heavy Duty Buses with Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, Battery Electric, and Fuel Cell Powertrains: Global Market Analysis and Forecasts

The electric drive bus market is starting to reap the rewards of the huge investments being made to grow the passenger EV market. Costs of key components such as batteries, motors, and power electronics are declining thanks to increasing volume, and these improvements are helping plug-in hybrid and battery electric buses become more viable for fleets. Transit agency interest in electric drive buses—spurred by zero emissions and low noise operation and the potential for reduced operating costs—is translating into sales growth.

In all geographic markets except for China, hybrid diesel buses will continue to capture greater market share than plug-in buses due to the lower price premium compared to plug-in buses, the lack of infrastructure investment, and the data that enables fleet operators to deploy hybrid buses where they will provide the greatest fuel efficiency benefits. Fuel cell buses will continue to see deployments while technology costs are driven down by developers. Yet, conventional engines (mostly with diesel fuel) will continue to be the powertrain of choice for buses during the next 10 years. The upfront cost for an electric drive bus continues to be an issue; thus, adoption tends to be focused in regions with government funding.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market for medium and heavy duty electric drive buses with the following powertrains: gasoline hybrid, gasoline plug-in hybrid, diesel hybrid, diesel plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and hydrogen fuel cells. The report provides an analysis of key market and technology issues, regional policies, and profiles of many vehicle manufacturers and component suppliers. Global market forecasts for annual sales and vehicle population by segment, country, and powertrain type extend through 2027. The Excel databook accompanying this report also includes pivot tables for electric drive bus sales and population by country, segment, and powertrain type.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How large are the bus markets in each of the major world regions and key countries?
  • How big is the potential market for electric, hybrid, and fuel cell buses in each region and major country?
  • Which electric powertrains will have the most success in either the medium duty or heavy duty bus markets?
  • Which companies are the major players in the electric drive bus market today?
  • What are the main drivers and barriers for electric drive buses in regional markets?
Who needs this report?
  • Bus manufacturers
  • Battery and electric drive suppliers
  • Fuel cell providers
  • Utilities and energy companies
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers and providers
  • Hydrogen infrastructure providers
  • Fleet managers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Drivers

1.3   Key Technologies

1.4   Forecast Highlights

2. Market Dynamics

2.1   Introduction

2.2   Vehicle and Powertrain Classifications

2.3   Electric Drive Options

2.3.1   Hybrid (Gasoline or Diesel)

2.3.2   Plug-In Hybrid

2.3.3   Battery Electric

2.3.4   Fuel Cell

2.4   Market Dynamics

2.4.1   Component Cost

2.4.2   Regional Policy and Regulations

2.4.2.1   North America

2.4.2.2    European Union

2.4.2.3    Asia Pacific

2.4.3   City Low Emissions Zones

2.4.4   Fleet Issues

2.4.5   Charging Issues

3. Company Profiles

3.1   Electric Drive Bus OEMs

3.1.1   Alexander Dennis Ltd.

3.1.2   Ashok Leyland

3.1.3   Blue Bird Corp.

3.1.4   Bolloré

3.1.5   BYD

3.1.6   Daimler Buses

3.1.7   Euracom Group

3.1.8   Gillig

3.1.9   GreenPower Bus

3.1.10 Hyundai Motor Company

3.1.11 IC Bus

3.1.12 Lion Electric Company

3.1.13 MAN SE

3.1.14 New Flyer

3.1.15 Proterra

3.1.16 REV Group

3.1.17 Scania AB

3.1.18 Solaris Bus & Coach

3.1.19 Tata Motors

3.1.20 VDL

3.1.21 Vectia

3.1.22 Volvo

3.1.23 Wrightbus

3.1.24 Yutong Bus

3.2   Major Electric Drive Bus Component Suppliers

3.2.1   ABB

3.2.2   ADOMANI

3.2.3   Allison Transmission

3.2.4   BAE Systems, Inc.

3.2.5   Ballard Power Systems

3.2.6   Cummins

3.2.7   Efficient Drivetrains

3.2.8   GKN Hybrid Power

3.2.9   Heliox Automotive

3.2.10 Microvast

3.2.11 Motiv Power

3.2.12 Siemens

3.2.13 TM4

3.2.14 UQM Technologies

3.2.15 Wrightspeed

3.2.16 XL Hybrids

3.2.17 ZF

4. Market Model and Forecasts

4.1   Introduction

4.2   Market Model

4.2.1   MD Buses by Electric Powertrain

4.2.2   HD Buses by Electric Powertrain

4.3   Regional Forecasts

4.3.1   North America

4.3.2   Western Europe

4.3.3   Asia Pacific

4.3.4   Rest of World

4.4   Conclusions and Recommendations

5. Acronym and Abbreviation List
6. Table of Contents
7. Table of Charts and Figures
8. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Annual Bus Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2027
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of World: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Rest of World: 2017-2027

List of Tables

 

  • Bus Size Definition
  • Powertrain Terminology
  • European Union Emissions Standards for New Buses
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Bus Sales by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Bus Sales by Vehicle Category, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Bus Population by Fuel Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Electric Drive Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Bus Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • MD Bus Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Bus Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • HD Bus Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Sales by Country Pivot Table: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type Pivot Table: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Country Pivot Table: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type Pivot Table: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2027
  • Annual MD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United States: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Canada: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, France: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Germany: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, United Kingdom: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Russia: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Eastern Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, China: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Japan: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, India: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Brazil: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Mexico: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Rest of Latin America: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2027
  • Annual HD Electric Drive Bus Sales by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, North America: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Western Europe: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Eastern Europe: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Asia Pacific: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Latin America: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, Middle East & Africa: 2017-2027
  • MD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • HD Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027
  • Electric Drive Bus Population Penetration by Powertrain Type, World Markets: 2017-2027

 


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