Market Data: Electric Vehicle Market Forecasts

Global Forecasts for Light Duty Hybrid, Plug-In Hybrid, and Battery EV Sales and Vehicles in Use: 2016-2025

The market for light duty vehicles (LDVs) is changing rapidly due to innovations in autonomous and connected vehicle systems and advances in battery energy density and cost. Autonomous and connected vehicle technologies will likely encourage greater use of shared vehicles and increased use of LDVs. Meanwhile, the transition from liquid fuels to electricity is expected to transform the retail fuel sector as well as utility roles in transportation energy supply. These technologies are in their infancy and will take decades to mature. Yet, as they do, LDV travel and the pool of industries that support it will change dramatically.

Declining costs have positioned the battery EV (BEV) for market success in the years to come. Long-range BEVs are now competitive in price among economy brands after subsidies. This milestone marks a threshold likely to move BEVs from a niche vehicle option to the next vehicle option for many consumers. Additionally, the over 400,000 preorders of Tesla’s Model 3 indicate that the affordable 200-plus mile BEV will have a big impact on the vehicle market. Tesla’s massive preorder numbers may indicate initial reactions to the upcoming long-range BEVs will beat industry expectations. Alternatively, these numbers could be a response to the company’s hype machine—and they may overstate the long-range BEV opportunity.

This Navigant Research report provides forecasts, market sizing, and market share analysis for the overall LDV market and light duty hybrid EVs (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and BEVs. Global forecasts for annual LDV sales and vehicles in use are driven by scenario forecasts on battery prices, oil prices, and autonomous mobility system (AMS) penetration within the LDV fleet. Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative scenario conditions, aggressive scenario conditions, and the average result of 24 scenario combination conditions. Core model scenario forecasts are also provided alongside HEV, PHEV, and BEV sensitivities to each major scenario forecast condition.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the growth rates of light duty hybrid EVs (HEVs), plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs), and battery EVs (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2025?
  • How many light duty HEVs, PHEVs, and BEVs will be on the roads through 2025?
  • What are the key factors driving growth in the light duty EV market?
  • How will light duty HEV, PHEV, and BEV sales be affected by other alternative fuel technologies?
  • How do autonomous mobility systems (AMSs) affect the market opportunities for EVs?
  • What are the current government policies regarding EVs and how do they affect sales?
  • How will fuel prices and advances in lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries affect light duty EV sales?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • EV component manufacturers and suppliers
  • EV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1    Introduction

1.2    Report Scope and Definitions

1.3    Market Forecasts

2. Methodology

2.1    Introduction

2.2    Model Overview

2.3    Major Parameters

2.3.1   Technology Competition Model

2.3.2   Purchase Costs

2.3.2.1   Powertrain Costs

2.3.2.2    Taxes and Subsidies

2.3.3   Operating Costs

2.3.4   Total Cost of Ownership

2.3.5   Consumer Sacrifice Penalty

2.3.6   Market and Segment Share

2.3.7   AMS Penetration

2.4    Forecast Scenarios

3. Market Forecasts

3.1    LDVs

3.2    HEVs

3.3    PHEVs

3.4    BEVs

3.5    Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Average Retail Fuel Prices, United States: April 2000-September 2016
  • Effects of Automation on Cost per Mile of Transportation Network Company Service
  • Historic EV Sales and Forecasts by Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2025
  • Passenger Car BEV Purchase Price Premium over ICEV, United States: 2016
  • BEV Battery Pack Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Market Share, Norway and Netherlands: 2012-2015
  • BEV Purchase Premium by Major Market (Base Battery Price): 2016-2025
  • Oil Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Estimated Maintenance Costs by Powertrain and Type, World Markets: 2016
  • Estimated TCO by Major Market (Base Battery Price, Conservative Oil Price): 2016-2025
  • BEV TCO with Consumer Sacrifice Penalty by Major Market (Base Battery Price Scenario, Conservative Oil Price Scenario): 2016-2025
  • AMS Penetration by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2025
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, No AMS Penetration, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • High AMS Penetration Impact on LDVs in Use by Region, World Markets: 2025
  • LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LD HEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2016
  • HEV Sales Sensitivity by Parameter, World Markets: 2025
  • LD HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LD PHEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2016
  • PHEV Sales Sensitivity by Parameter, World Markets: 2025
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • LD BEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2016
  • BEV Sales Sensitivity by Parameter, World Markets: 2025
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2016-2025

List of Tables

  • Estimated LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Estimated HEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2015
  • Battery Price Forecast by Powertrain and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Oil Price Forecast by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • Automated Mobility System Penetration as a Percentage of Vehicles in Use by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDV Sales Sensitivities by Parameter and Powertrain, World Markets: 2025
  • LDV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEVs in Use by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEVs in Use by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • LDVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • BEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • PHEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025
  • HEVs in Use by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2025

Report Details

  • Pages: 45
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    65
  • Release Date: 4Q 2016
  • Release File(s): Excel* and PDF *Indicates primary report file.

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