Market Data: EV Market Forecasts

Global Forecasts for Light Duty Plug-In Hybrid and Battery EV Sales and Populations: 2017-2026

Set to pass 1 million sales in 2017, the global plug-in EV (PEV) market will notch 6 years of annual growth of 40% or more since PEVs were introduced in 2011. The rollout of long-range battery EVs (BEVs) at sub-$40,000 price points is boosting market adoption, and the global market should see continued growth at around 38% through 2020. While most of the global market can expect robust growth in the near term, the outlook in the US is less reliable since policies that have been vital to market growth are now in question.

If light duty vehicle (LDV) fuel efficiency policies and government subsidies are relaxed or removed in the US, domestic OEMs will find it difficult to keep pace with foreign automakers whose domestic governments are more ambitious in terms of PEV industry development. For example, Europe and China are increasingly strengthening market electrification policies. A handful of European countries are considering or designing policies to ban conventional vehicle sales before 2050, and China is introducing a zero emissions vehicle mandate. OEMs located in these markets typically have competitive advantages based on brand recognition or trade protections, among other reasons. Strong support in the domestic market can enable these OEMs to more speedily achieve gains in PEV technologies that would place US OEMs at a disadvantage.

This Navigant Research report analyzes the global market conditions and regulatory policies for PEVs. The study examines the next decade of the PEV market with a specific focus on how government interventions, vehicle economics, infrastructure, and automation will affect new markets and subsequent growth of the PEV population. The study provides 10-year sales and population forecasts of major regions by PEV powertrain type: battery EV (BEV) and plug-in hybrid EV (PHEV). Forecasts are provided by segment under conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios alongside historical data on BEV, PHEV, and overall LDV sales.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How will the growth rates of plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEVs) and battery EVs (BEVs) vary by region and country through 2026?
  • How many light duty (LD) PHEVs and BEVs will be on the roads through 2026?
  • How are regulatory forces shaping the LD plug-in EV (PEV) markets?
  • What are the implications of likely changes to regulatory policies?
  • Which key factors are driving growth in the LD PEV market?
  • How will LD PHEV and BEV sales be affected by other alternative fuel technologies?
Who needs this report?
  • Automotive OEMs
  • Plug-in EV (PEV) component manufacturers and suppliers
  • PEV charging equipment manufacturers
  • Energy service companies (ESCOs)
  • Utilities
  • Government agencies
  • Industry associations
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1   Introduction

1.2   Market Forecasts

2. Methodology

2.1   Introduction

2.1.1   Scope

2.2   Model Overview

2.2.1   Technology Competition Model

2.2.2   Outright Costs

2.2.2.1   Regulations

2.2.2.2   Regional Variations

2.2.2.2.1.   China

2.2.2.2.2.   North America

2.2.2.2.3.   Europe

2.2.2.3   Purchase Incentives

2.2.3   Operating Costs

2.2.3.1   Energy

2.2.3.2   Maintenance

2.2.3.3   Consumer Sacrifice Penalty

2.2.4   Total Cost of Ownership

2.2.5   Cost to Sales

2.2.6   Eligibility

2.2.7   Supply Constraint

2.2.8   Infrastructure

3. Market Forecasts

3.1   Introduction

3.2   Vehicle Market and Population

3.3   PHEVs

3.4   BEVs

3.5   Base Scenario

3.6   Conservative Scenario

3.7   Aggressive Scenario

3.8   Conclusions and Recommendations

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Historic and Forecast PEV Sales by Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2026
  • PEV Market Share by Country/Region, Western Europe: 2012-2017
  • Outright Costs of Competing Powertrain-Fuel Configurations in Passenger Car Segment by Powertrain, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Estimated Purchase Discount by Powertrain and Region, World Markets: 2018
  • Equivalent ICE Efficiency (Gasoline) to Electric Efficiency Based on Energy Price by Select Country, World Markets: 2017
  • Monthly Ownership Cost vs. Sales by Segment with Select BEV Models, US: 2017
  • Percentage of Market Eligible to Consider AFV Purchase by AFV and Select Country, World Markets: 2017
  • PEV and ICEV Availability by Select Market, World Markets: 2017
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • LDV Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • LD PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • LD PHEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2017
  • LD BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • LD BEV Market Share by OEM, World Markets: 2017
  • PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Sales by Powertrain, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Gap between Base and Conservative Forecasts, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Gap between Base and Aggressive Forecasts, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Powertrain-Fuel Configuration Calculation

List of Tables

  • Estimated LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • Estimated PEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • Estimated BEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • Estimated PHEV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2012-2016
  • Battery Price Forecast by Powertrain, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Retail Fuel Prices by Country, World Markets: 2017
  • LDV Sales by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • LDV Population by Region, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • BEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • BEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PHEV Population by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • BEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • BEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PHEV Population by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • BEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PHEV Sales by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • BEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • PHEV Population by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2017-2026
  • Major Global Vehicle Fuel Efficiency/Emissions Regulations and Market Coverage

{"userID":"","pageName":"Market Data: EV Market Forecasts","path":"\/research\/market-data-ev-market-forecasts","date":"6\/18\/2018"}