Market Data: Global Fuels Consumption

Road Transportation Consumption of Liquid Fuels, Electricity, Natural Gas, LPG, and Hydrogen and Impacts of Automated Mobility Systems:
Global Forecasts and Analysis, 2016-2035

The next decade of innovations in automotive technologies is likely to dramatically change the process by which passengers and goods are moved. Developments in vehicle electrification, connectivity, and automated driving are creating potential for new business models in transportation services and significant savings in transportation costs. At the confluence of these developments lies a timely, cost efficient, and well-organized transportation system. The lengthy lifespan of vehicles relative to other consumer products will, however, spread the revolutionary impact on the existing transportation system and regional fuels markets over decades.

Displacing oil as the leading transportation energy resource has long been a policy goal of global governments. The emergence of automated mobility systems (AMSs) adds a layer of complexity to the prospects of these policies and the various fuels markets. Low-cost, efficient travel is likely to encourage greater use of passenger travel through light duty vehicles (LDVs), which may come at the cost of more efficient public transit options. The result is likely to increase overall transportation sector energy consumption. Vehicle fuels that compete well in small LDV segments will see more demand from this shift than those in large LDV segments because automated services are likely to utilize smaller vehicles.

This report provides an update to Navigant Research’s Global Fuels Consumption model, with a focus on how emerging AMSs may affect regional fuels markets. The study assesses the potential impacts to the fuels markets through four scenarios of AMS penetration (no adoption, low, mid, and high). Global forecasts for road fuel consumption for LDVs and medium and heavy duty vehicles (MHDVs), segmented by region, fuel, and scenario, extend through 2035. Although this report focuses on the effects of automated technologies on passenger vehicle energy consumption, forecasts also include the fuel consumption of goods vehicles.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • What is the impact of alternative fuels and alternative fuel vehicles on the global fuels supply and markets?
  • What impact are advances in vehicle fuel economy having on the conventional fuels (gasoline and diesel) supply and markets?
  • What are the fastest-growing alternative fuels by region?
  • What are the major factors and variables in assessing demand for road transportation fuels?
  • What are the market drivers and challenges for each fuel type?
  • How will specific fuels benefit from advances in automated mobility systems (AMSs)?
  • How will overall energy consumption be affected by AMSs?
  • How will market segments be affected by AMSs?
Who needs this report?
  • Utilities
  • EV supply equipment (EVSE) providers and manufacturers
  • Oil & gas companies
  • Biofuels producers
  • Natural gas and hydrogen infrastructure developers
  • Battery suppliers
  • Government agencies
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Overview

1.2  Scope

1.3  Market Forecasts

2. Market Forecasts

2.1  Introduction

2.2  Scope

2.3  Methodology

2.3.1  Forecasting Vehicles in Use

2.3.2  Powertrain Segmentation

2.3.3  New Vehicle Markets

2.3.4  Vehicle Miles Traveled

2.3.5  Vehicle Efficiency

2.4  Results

2.4.1  Oil

2.4.2  Gasoline

2.4.3  Diesel

2.4.4  Biofuels

2.4.4.1  Ethanol

2.4.4.2  Biodiesel

2.4.4.3  Drop-In

2.4.5  Electricity

2.4.6  Hydrogen

2.4.7  Natural Gas

2.4.8  Autogas

2.5  Conclusions and Recommendations

3. Acronym and Abbreviation List
4. Table of Contents
5. Table of Charts and Figures
6. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Effects of Automation on Cost per Mile of Transportation Network Company Service
  • Passenger Miles by Mode and Country or Region: 2012
  • Average Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled of Major Vehicle Categories
  • Historical Fleet CO2 Emissions Performance and Current or Proposed Passenger Vehicle Standards: 2000-2025
  • Road Transportation Energy Consumption Difference between No Adoption and High Scenarios, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Automated Vehicle Penetration of Vehicles in Use by Region and Scenario, World Markets: 2035
  • LDVs in Use by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • MHDVs in Use by Scenario: World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Oil Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Battery Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV Sales Difference between No Adoption and High Scenarios by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2035
  • MHDV Sales Difference between No Adoption and High Scenarios by Primary Fuel, World Markets: 2035
  • Vehicle Miles Traveled by Fuel (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Fuel Consumption Differences between No Adoption and High Scenarios by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Fuel Consumption Differences between Scenarios, World Markets: 2035
  • Road Transportation Energy Consumption by Fuel (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Oil Consumption by Scenario, World Markets: 2035
  • Road Transportation Gasoline Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Diesel Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Biofuels Consumption by Fuel (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Electricity Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Hydrogen Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Natural Gas Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Road Transportation Autogas Consumption by Region (No Adoption Scenario), World Markets: 2016-2035

List of Tables

  • Automated Mobility Penetration Scenario by Region, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • Oil Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • BEV Battery Price by Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Energy Consumption by Fuel, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2050
  • LDV and MHDV Consumption by Fuel and Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Oil Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Gasoline Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Diesel Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Ethanol Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Biodiesel Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Drop-in Biofuels Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Electricity Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Hydrogen Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Natural Gas Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, No Adoption Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, Low Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, Mid Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035
  • LDV and MHDV Autogas Consumption by Region, High Scenario, World Markets: 2016-2035

Report Details

  • Pages: 40
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    73
  • Release Date: 4Q 2016
  • Release File(s): Excel* and PDF *Indicates primary report file.

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