Market Data: Microgrids

Campus/Institutional, Commercial & Industrial, Community, Community Resilience, Military, Utility Distribution, and Remote Microgrid Deployments: Global Capacity and Revenue Forecasts

A microgrid is not a single technology, but rather a system of systems that can be applied by multiple stakeholders in diverse regions of the world. The associated vendor pool numbers in the hundreds, if not more. Navigant Research was the first to size this market opportunity in 2009 and has continually refined its modeling approach. This report represents the culmination of data collection, insights derived from interviews, and models updated with the latest cost data on the distributed energy resources (DER) that underpin microgrid networks.

Significant barriers remain for microgrids to be considered a standard option for adding new capacity and other energy-related services across global markets. Nevertheless, there are certain application segments located within specific geographies where microgrids can make economic sense. Sometimes these deployments depend on government incentives or other sources of supplemental funding. Yet the number of microgrids that are being deployed without the help of government grants and incentives is growing. The largest microgrid market today is Asia Pacific, displacing North America for the first time. By the end of the 10-year forecast, these two regions are expected to switch places, with North America in the lead again. According to Navigant Research, global microgrid capacity is expected to grow from 1.4 GW in 2015 to 7.6 GW in 2024 under a base scenario.

This Navigant Research report aggregates data on seven primary microgrid segments (including two subsegments) across five regions. The study analyzes the entire microgrid market in terms of total annual and cumulative capacity and implementation revenue attached to the underlying assets. Different scenarios for cumulative implementation revenue based on assumptions of percentages of legacy versus new assets are provided, as well. The report also presents three different forecast scenarios (conservative, base, and aggressive) for the entire microgrid market.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How do growth rates for microgrids differ according to application segments?
  • How large are the potential revenue streams for all microgrids globally?
  • Which microgrid segments in which regions of the world represent the largest market opportunities?
  • What is the relationship between capacity and implementation revenue for microgrids?
  • Why do certain microgrid segments differ from other segments?
  • How do assumptions about legacy assets affect estimates of cumulative revenue for microgrids?
  • Which countries outside of the United States appear to be the leading microgrid markets?
Who needs this report?
  • Microgrid systems integrators and developers
  • Public and private utilities
  • Distributed generation (DG) manufacturers
  • Energy storage providers
  • Smart grid software providers
  • Direct current (DC) product providers
  • Energy industry regulators
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Microgrid Market Overview

2. Data Assumptions

2.1  Microgrid Market Overview

2.2  Starting Point: Microgrid Deployment Tracker

2.3  Microgrid Market Segments

2.4  Three Microgrid Market Drivers

2.4.1  Extreme Weather Effects on Grid Performance Continue

2.4.2  Grid Resiliency Initiatives Increase Over Time

2.4.3  Growing Role for Energy Storage Technologies in Microgrids

2.5  Three Microgrid Market Barriers

2.5.1  The Status Quo Resistance to Intentional Islanding of DER

2.5.2  Utility Departing Load Concerns

2.5.3  Comprehensive System Financing Challenges

2.6  Microgrid Controls: Gateway Market Maker

3. Market Forecasts

3.1  Microgrid Market Segmentation and Growth Profiles

3.2  Forecast Methodology

3.2.1  Project Capacity

3.2.2  Implementation Revenue

3.3  Cumulative Microgrid Capacity and Revenue

3.3.1  Total Microgrid Asset Value Streams

3.3.2  Assumptions about Legacy Assets: Multiple Scenarios

3.4  Campus/Institutional Microgrids

3.5  C&I Microgrids

3.5.1  AC Systems

3.5.2  DC Systems

3.6  Community Microgrids

3.6.1  Community Resilience Microgrids

3.7  Stationary Military Base Microgrids

3.8  Utility Distribution Microgrids

3.8.1  IOUs

3.8.2  Public Power Utilities

3.9  Remote Microgrids

3.10  Grid-Tied Microgrids

3.11  Microgrid Scenarios

3.11.1  Capacity

3.11.2  Implementation Revenue

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Locations of $1 Billion Climate-Related Events, United States: 2015
  • Centralized (Mainframe) vs. Distributed (Internet) Control Paradigms
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Total Microgrid Market Capacity Market Share by Region, World Markets: 4Q 2015
  • Average Installed Energy Storage System Costs for Distributed Applications by Technology, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Cumulative Total Microgrid Market Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Cumulative Total Microgrid Market Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, 50% Legacy Asset Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Remote Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Grid-Tied Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Campus/Institutional Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual C&I Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Community Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Community Resilience Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Stationary Base Military Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue, U.S. DOD: 2015-2024
  • Annual Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity and Implementation Revenue by Region, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Capacity by Region, All Scenarios, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Region, All Scenarios, World Markets: 2015-2024

List of Tables

  • Five Selected East Coast Microgrid Program Rankings, United States
  • Assumptions Underlying Microgrid Market Forecasts
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Capacity by Segment and Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Segment and Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Cumulative Total Microgrid Market Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Cumulative Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Cumulative Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Region, 50% Legacy Asset Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Cumulative Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Region, 75% Legacy Asset Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Remote Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2014
  • Annual Remote Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Grid-Tied Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Grid-Tied Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Campus/Institutional Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Campus/Institutional Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Commercial & Industrial AC Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Commercial & Industrial AC Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Commercial & Industrial DC Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Commercial & Industrial DC Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Community Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Community Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Community Resilience Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Community Resilience Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Stationary Base Military Microgrid Capacity, Base Scenario, U.S. DOD: 2015-2024
  • Annual Stationary Base Military Microgrid Implementation Revenue, Base Scenario, U.S. DOD: 2015-2024
  • Annual IOU Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual IOU Utility Distribution Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Public Power Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Public Power Utility Distribution Microgrid Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Capacity by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid  Market Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Region, Conservative Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024
  • Annual Total Microgrid Market Implementation Revenue by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2015-2024

Report Details

  • Pages: 43
  • Tables, Charts,
    Figures:
    51
  • Release Date: 1Q 2016

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