Market Data: Microgrids

Forecasts for Commercial/Industrial, Community/Utility,
Campus/Institutional, Military, and Remote Microgrids: 2013-2020

The microgrid market is currently moving into full-scale commercialization with the launch of dozens of successful pilot programs globally, decreasing costs of solar photovoltaic (PV), and a relaxing of prohibitions against distributed generation operation during times of grid stress, including the ability to island from the larger utility grid during emergencies.  As with any new innovation, adoption of microgrids will increase more rapidly as awareness of – and confidence in – the platform’s capabilities grows.

For a variety of reasons, North America (and especially the United States) still represents the best overall market for all microgrid segments in terms of aggregate capacity.  Key factors include pockets of poor power quality scattered throughout the United States and the structure of behind-the-meter markets for distributed energy resources (DER).  Worldwide, Navigant Research forecasts that revenue from deployments of microgrids will be just under $10 billion in 2013, increasing to just more than $40 billion annually by 2020 in the average scenario.  This is significantly higher than previous market forecasts due to new market intelligence suggesting that microgrids, including retrofit projects incorporating legacy assets, require greater investment than previously recognized.

This Navigant Research report provides newly updated capacity and annual vendor revenue forecasts for the five primary microgrid market segments: commercial/industrial, community/utility, campus/institutional, military, and remote (off-grid) microgrids.  The report also offers capacity and revenue forecasts for utility distribution microgrids – a segment that overlaps with community/utility and remote segments – as well as microgrid enabling technologies, the latter being the group of key components deployed within microgrids.  The economic and public policy assumptions behind the forecasts are explained in detail, along with data trends and regional market drivers.

Key Questions Addressed:
  • How fast will the microgrid market grow in terms of total capacity by 2020?
  • Which regions of the world will show the most robust growth?
  • Which microgrid segments offer the best near-term market opportunities?
  • Which microgrid segments, in which regions, offer the best bet for long-term revenue growth?
  • How large a role will utilities play in future microgrid markets?
  • What potential revenues can be derived from sales of microgrid enabling technologies over time?
  • What are the current data trends and regional microgrid market drivers?
Who needs this report?
  • Microgrid hardware and software companies
  • Smart grid technology vendors
  • Distributed generation providers
  • Energy storage technology manufacturers
  • Government agencies
  • Utilities
  • Investor community

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1.1  Market Overview

1.2  Market Forecasts

1.3  Geographic Market Shares

2. Data Assumptions

2.1  Current Data Trends and Regional Microgrid Market Drivers

2.2  Microgrid Market Segments

2.2.1     Utility Distribution Microgrids

2.2.2     Microgrid Enabling Technologies

2.3  The Three-Scenario Formula

2.4  Economic Assumptions

2.5  Public Policy Assumptions

2.6  Power Grid Performance

2.7  A Growing Vendor Pool

2.8  Synergy with Distributed Energy Resource Deployments

3. Market Forecasts

3.1  Microgrid Capacity Methodology

3.2  Microgrid Revenue Methodology

3.3  Regional Market Forecasts

3.3.1     North America

3.3.2     Europe

3.3.3     Asia Pacific

3.3.4     Rest of World

3.4  Utility Distribution Microgrids

3.5  Microgrid Enabling Technologies

3.6  Conclusions

4. Acronym and Abbreviation List
5. Table of Contents
6. Table of Charts and Figures
7. Scope of Study, Sources and Methodology, Notes

List of Charts and Figures

  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Forecast Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • UDM Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • UDM Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • MET Distributed Generation Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Capacity Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2013
  • Total Microgrid Capacity Market Share by Region, World Markets: 2013

List of Tables

  • Assumptions Contributing to Microgrid Market Segment Forecasts
  • Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Capacity by Region and Segment, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2012-2020
  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Region and Segment, Base Scenario, World Markets:  2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Capacity by Region and Segment, Average Scenario, World Markets:  2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Region and Segment, Average Scenario, World Markets:  2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Capacity by Region and Segment, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets:  2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Total Microgrid Revenue by Region and Segment, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets:  2013-2020
  • Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Utility Distribution Microgrid Capacity by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Utility Distribution Microgrid Revenue by Region, Base Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Utility Distribution Microgrid Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Utility Distribution Microgrid Revenue by Region, Aggressive Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Microgrid Enabling Technology Distributed Generation Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Microgrid Enabling Technology Distributed Generation Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Microgrid Enabling Technology (Inverter, Storage, ADR, and PEV) Capacity by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020
  • Microgrid Enabling Technology (Inverter, Storage, ADR, and PEV) Revenue by Region, Average Scenario, World Markets: 2013-2020

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